by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Nov 17, 2022
Time: 10 p.m. ET
Venue: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, NY
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Bills -7.5
FanDuel: Bills -7.5
BetMGM: Bills -8
Caesars: Bills -8
Season record
Browns: 3-6
Bills: 6-3
The NFL season is heating up with a lot of great games! Did you see this week's slate of games? They might not be like this forever, but man, it's going to be hard to replicate what we saw in Buffalo and Green Bay this weekend. But the playoff races are heating up at the right time and they are certainly relaying some excitement as the season progresses. You know you want to get involved in this action, as well, with our champion handicappers killing it through the NFL season with 8 more games to play for some teams, and even 7 if you're feeling lucky. Look no further than our own Al McMordie sitting at 16-9-1 in the NFL over the last 30 days, along with Sean Murphy at 16-11-0 in the last month. There's a lot of success stories as it pertains to who wants it more with the schedule entering the second half of the year. If you want the best handicapping results, make sure you're following our champion handicappers to a T and get in on this action at bigal.com!
Browns - Bills preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Browns: lost 39-17 at Dolphins
Bills: lost 33-30 (OT) vs. Vikings
Last year, such a heartbreaking loss for the Buffalo Bills would not mean so much because they ran away with the AFC East. Now it’s different with the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets not only beating them this year, but making the AFC East not a joke this year. But the Bills will try to rebound after said heartbreaker on Sunday when they welcome the Cleveland Browns.
Last year, such a heartbreaking loss for the Buffalo Bills would not mean so much because they ran away with the AFC East. Now it’s different with the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets not only beating them this year, but making the AFC East not a joke this year. But the Bills will try to rebound after said heartbreaker on Sunday when they welcome the Cleveland Browns.
It’s crazy looking at the Bills’ three losses this year, how they’ve happened, and how they could’ve been avoided. The loss to the Dolphins was a clear act of no balance; the Jets was just a weird happening. And last week’s loss to the Minnesota Vikings in what will go down as the Game of the Year, could’ve been avoided altogether, and surprisingly that came from Josh Allen.
Why is Allen trying to QB sneak it on the one-inch line? Why aren’t the Bills trying to advance through the air to risk a safety, or in this case, a touchdown? Why in the world is Allen trying to force the ball to the end zone when there’s still time left in overtime? None of it made sense for the Bills to drop to 6-3 and out of first place in the AFC East, and now they have some ground to make up after losing 33-30 in overtime to the now 8-1 Vikings.
Allen threw for 330 yards and ran for 84 to become the 3rd player ever with 300 passing yards and 75 rushing yards multiple times in his career. But Allen did throw two interceptions, while throwing the ball 43 times. I’m not saying Kirk Cousins was any better, but the blame does go on him.
"Losing sucks. It sucks this way even more. Horrendous second half," Allen said. "It comes down to my shoulders and my shoulders only. Making the right decisions, making the right throws. This one's going to suck, watching it."
Now, make no mistake: The Bills are still one of the best teams in football and when this transitions to the playoffs, they will obviously be a tough out because of Allen. But games like last week can’t happen this week, especially against a Browns team that is still trying to cling to whatever life it has left.
The Browns are coming off a 39-17 loss to the Dolphins in Miami, not having any answer for Tua Tagovailoa or the newly-acquired Jeff Wilson. Jacoby Brissett threw for 212 yards and a touchdown, but Nick Chubb had just 63 yards on 11 carries and one of them went for a 33-yard touchdown.
"We knew they were unique in what they did, and they were going to throw a lot of different looks at us," Browns defensive end Myles Garrett said. "It really kept us on the back foot, kept us hesitant, and they capitalized on that."
Prediction
The Browns looked good against a depleted Bengals offense three weeks ago. This isn’t a depleted Bills offense by any stretch. Feel confident in giving up the 8 points because this is going to be one hell of a performance from Buffalo. Bills by 21
Betting trends
Bills are 21-9 ATS after scoring and allowing 30 points the previous game since 1992.
Bills are 59-34 ATS after 2 straight ATS losses since 1992.
Bills are 25-8 ATS after 3 or more straight ATS losses since 1992.
Browns are 11-22 ATS against conference opponents the last 3 seasons.
Browns are 1-10 ATS off a road loss the last 3 seasons.
Statistical leaders
Browns:
Passing: Jacoby Brissett -- 2,074 yards, 8 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Nick Chubb -- 904 yards, 11 TD
Receiving: Amari Cooper -- 585 yards, 5 TD
Defense: Myles Garrett -- 7.5 sacks
Bills:
Passing: Josh Allen -- 2,733 yards, 20 TD, 10 INT
Rushing: Josh Allen -- 476 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Stefon Diggs -- 985 yards, 7 TD
Defense: Von Miller -- 8 sacks
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Cleveland Browns - Buffalo Bills prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NFL projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
