by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Oct 19, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Ravens -6.5
FanDuel: Ravens -6.5
BetMGM: Ravens -6.5
Caesars: Ravens -6.5
Season record
Browns: 2-4
Ravens: 3-3
We're a quarter of the way through the NFL and the one thing we can say for sure is that nothing's for sure (shoutout to all the WCW fans who got that reference). And so far, it's been a fun season to be had by all with just one undefeated team left. Will this week be the week the Eagles fall? You'll have to see what our champion handicappers think of such an idea, especially our own Wayne Root who is 30-13-1 through the first five weeks of the NFL season. What does Wayne have in store for a fun week ahead? Make sure you're checking our Best Bets page at bigal.com to find out who are peeps are taking on the action this week.
Browns - Ravens preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Browns: lost 38-15 vs. Patriots
Ravens: lost 24-20 at Giants
The AFC North is one giant mess with no team wanting to take over the top spot willingly. And yet here we are this week with a crapshoot of a matchup that I can look at through every position and not find one meaningful claim that the Baltimore Ravens could actually beat the Cleveland Browns this week? Conventional wisdom says yes, they should and can. But then the Ravens completely fold last week against the New York Giants and I’m left pondering if they’re actually good and if the Ravens are smart enough to not pay Lamar Jackson yet? Oh, who am I kidding? It makes all the sense in the world to pay the only man on this team that can actually deliver when needed at this rate.
The AFC North is one giant mess with no team wanting to take over the top spot willingly. And yet here we are this week with a crapshoot of a matchup that I can look at through every position and not find one meaningful claim that the Baltimore Ravens could actually beat the Cleveland Browns this week? Conventional wisdom says yes, they should and can. But then the Ravens completely fold last week against the New York Giants and I’m left pondering if they’re actually good and if the Ravens are smart enough to not pay Lamar Jackson yet? Oh, who am I kidding? It makes all the sense in the world to pay the only man on this team that can actually deliver when needed at this rate.
Even though the Ravens lost to the Giants, and Jackson made some questionable plays in the process, the Ravens are still much better than that record indicates even though everyone should be laughing hysterically. Jackson had 287 total yards from scrimmage last week and he will look for an 11th consecutive game of at least 50 rushing yards. But it might not be his legs that do the trick against Cleveland, considering in four of his last five he hasn’t thrown an interception against this Cleveland defense. Alas, Baltimore couldn’t capitalize after their win at home against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday Night Football.
"That's the biggest story for us, is winning the game at the end of the game," Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. "Making the plays that need to be made, and not making the errors that cost you an opportunity to win the game."
The Ravens are much better than this, but it goes beyond just winning games at the end. Baltimore needs to get more production from everyone, especially on the outside. Tight end Mark Andrews is the only dangerous threat. Case in point, he had seven catches for 106 yards and a touchdown last week. He’s showing why he’s one of the best tight ends in the league, but he needs some help in taking some attention off him.
The Browns, meanwhile, are just looking for attention and are in need of some wins if they want a chance with Deshaun Watson eventually coming back. The Browns are coming off a 38-15 loss to the New England Patriots despite Jacoby Brissett’s season-high 266 yards. Brissett has been known to take care of the football against Baltimore, not throwing an interception in two career starts against the Ravens. But Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski is 1-3 all-time against Baltimore, with the only win coming last year in Cleveland.
"Every way you can get beat — offense, defense, special teams, coaching — we got beat," Stefanski said. "They beat us, and we also beat ourselves a few too many times."
Baltimore, at home, opens up as near-touchdown favorites across the board. The Ravens are 20-11 in the last three years as a favorite, but just 10-6 straight up as a home favorite. They’ve struggled to win at home, but I’m thinking this should be the time they get things under control here and get a win.
Prediction
Whoever wins will remain looking up at the Bengals in the division. The Ravens, for their sake, hope that’s not a long tilt of the neck. Ravens by 13
Betting trends
Browns are 10-8 ATS as an underdog the last three years.
Browns are 10-10 ATS in their last 20 road games.
Browns are 9-21 ATS in the last three years against conference opponents.
Ravens are 7-9 ATS as a home favorite the last three years.
Ravens are 6-1 ATS off a road loss in their last seven.
Statistical leaders
Browns:
Passing: Jacoby Brissett -- 1,326 yards, 6 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Nick Chubb -- 649 yards, 7 TD
Receiving: Amari Cooper -- 348 yards, 4 TD
Defense: Myles Garrett -- 5 sacks
Ravens:
Passing: Lamar Jackson -- 1,277 yards, 13 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Lamar Jackson -- 451 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Mark Andrews -- 455 yards, 5 TD
Defense: Marlon Humphrey -- 2 INT
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Cleveland Browns - Baltimore Ravens prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NFL projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
