by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Friday, Sep 10, 2021
Game Time: 7:15 pm ET, Saturday, September 11, 2021
Venue: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Where to Watch: BSMW
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Reds -115, Cardinals -105; Over/Under: NL runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Reds -120, Cardinals +100; Over/Under: 8 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Reds -125, Cardinals +105; Over/Under: 8 runs
Season Record
Cincinnati Reds: 74-67 (2nd place, NL Central)
St Louis Cardinals: 71-68 (3rd place, NL Central)
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Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Cincinnati Reds: 3-7 last 10
St Louis Cardinals: 5-5 last 10
Offensive Analysis
The Cincinnati Reds are ranked 6 in the league for batting average (.250), 6 in the league for RBI (665), 5 in the league for hits (1181), and they are ranked 5 in the league for OBP (.329). The St Louis Cardinals are ranked 19 in the league for batting average (.239), 25 in the league for RBI (553), 22 in the league for hits (1099), and they are ranked 19 in the league for OBP (.311).
Defensive Analysis
The Cincinnati Reds are ranked 18 in the league for ERA (4.38), 9 in the league for saves (38), 5 in the league for strikeouts (1328), and they are ranked 21 in the league for WHIP (1.35). The St Louis Cardinals are ranked 14 in the league for ERA (4.11), 7 in the league for saves (39), 30 in the league for strikeouts (1058), and they are ranked 17 in the league for WHIP (1.32).
Reds vs Cardinals Prediction
The Cincinnati Reds are taking on the St. Louis Cardinals in this matchup on Saturday. The first game of this three-game series is still to be played on Friday night with the result pending. The Reds have lost 3 of their last 4 games with just 1 win in their last series against the Chicago Cubs. The Cardinals are currently on a 2 game winning streak tying their four-game series with the Dodgers. Those last 2 wins snapped a 4 game losing streak they were on prior.
The Reds are coming into this game after losing to the Cubs 4-1 on Wednesday, with Friday’s game still to be played. The Reds will have Luis Castillo as the starting pitcher on the mound for Saturday's game and he is 7-15 with a 4.20 ERA this season. He has lost 3 straight games and has just 1 win in his last 5 starts along with 4 credited losses. He did not actually pitch that badly allowing no more than 3 runs at most in each of those last 5 starts. In his last start, he allowed 3 runs but just 1 ER and 2 BB with 7 Ks on 4 hits through 6 IP. He has seen this Cardinals lineup 5 times this year and his team is 2-3 against him. He allowed just 1 run in each of the wins but in the losses he allowed 3, 4, and 8 earned runs, those 8 coming in his first start of the season. The Reds offense have scored 9 runs in their last 4 games averaging just a little over 2 runs scored per game. If Castillo has a bad night it does not look like he will be getting much help from his hitters.
The Cardinals are coming into this game after winning 2-1 against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday. Miles Mikolas will be the starter throwing the first pitch for the Cardinals on Saturday and he is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA this season. He has only played in 5 games this season and his team is 2-3 in those games. He has allowed 4 runs in each of his last 2 starts. In his last start, he allowed 5 runs but 4 ER, 1 of those being a HR, and 2 BB with 3 Ks on 5 hits through 5 IP. He actually faced this Reds lineup once this year on September 1st and although his team won that game he still allowed 4 runs in it. The Cardinals have only scored 10 runs in their last 4 games averaging just a bit over 2 runs scored per game. He will not have a lot of run support from the batters by the looks of it if he implodes early in this game.
Both of these sides have to be feeling the pressure as they sit just outside of a wildcard spot with not too many games left in the season and the Milwaukee Brewers holding a hefty lead in the National League Central. Both of these pitchers are wildcards in themselves not knowing which one is going to show up and pitch well. Neither team seems to be hitting a lot in their recent games so this one could end up being a stale low scoring game that stays under the total.
Reds Cardinals Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Saturday, September 11, 2021 (7:15 pm ET start time) is Reds 2 Cardinals 0.
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MLB Betting Trends
Cincinnati Reds: 74-67 on the moneyline in all games. 38-26 on the moneyline against division opponents.
St Louis Cardinals: 39-26 on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 11-5 on the moneyline at home when the total is 7 to 7.5.
Key Injuries
Cincinnati Reds: T. Antone (RP) out for season - Elbow injury. A. Warren (RP) Late Sept - Oblique injury. J. Winker (RF) Mid Sept - Back injury.
St Louis Cardinals: J. Fernandez (RP) Out indefinitely - Back injury. R. Helsley (RP) out for season - Elbow injury. W. LeBlanc (SP) out for season - Elbow injury.
Players to Watch
Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto is one player to watch in this game as he could be the difference maker. He leads his team in RBI and in homers and will need to step up here to help his slumping team get a win and make a push for the playoffs.
St Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt is one player to watch for the Cardinals as he has been the most consistent all year. He leads his team in hits and in batting average so he will play a big part in this one if his team comes out as the winners. Watch for him to get some good hits in and get on base to give his team a chance here.
Notable Quotes
"Obviously a tough, tough loss tonight. But we have a lot left ahead of us, and we put it behind us and we move forward. We just have to keep playing." - David Bell after his team’s last loss.
"He's really grown into the consistent player that he really wanted to be and is capable of. He's prepared for every at-bat. This is a sharp kid. He does his homework." - Mike Shildt on Tyler O’Neill hitting the game winning HR in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Cincinnati Reds
J. India (2B)
T. Naquin (CF)
N. Castellanos (RF)
J. Votto (1B)
M. Moustakas (3B)
K. Farmer (SS)
T. Barnhart (C)
M. Schrock (LF)
V. Gutierrez (P)
St Louis Cardinals
T. Edman (2B)
P. Goldschmidt (1B)
T. O'Neill (LF)
N. Arenado (3B)
D. Carlson (CF)
L. Nootbaar (RF)
P. DeJong (SS)
A. Knizner (C)
J. Woodford (P)
Statistical Leaders
Cincinnati Reds
Batting Average: M. Schrock (.318)
Hits: N. Castellanos (145)
Home Runs: J. Votto (29)
RBI: J. Votto (86)
Stolen Bases: J. India (9)
Wins: W. Miley (12)
Saves: L. Sims (7)
ERA: T. Antone (1.87)
St Louis Cardinals
Batting Average: P. Goldschmidt (.288)
Hits: P. Goldschmidt (151)
Home Runs: N. Arenado (29)
RBI: N. Arenado (91)
Stolen Bases: T. Edman (24)
Wins: A. Wainwright (15)
Saves: A. Reyes (29)
ERA: T. McFarland (1.44)
Managers:
Cincinnati Reds: David Bell (3rd season)
St Louis Cardinals: Mike Shildt (4th season)
Weather Forecast
86 degrees F mostly sunny, 48% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 9 mph wind speeds N.
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
