by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, May 12, 2022
Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
Venue: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Where to watch: Bally Sports Ohio, AT&T SportsNet-Pittsburgh
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Pirates -140, Reds +120
BetMGM: Pirates -140, Reds +120
Caesars: Pirates -140, Reds +120
Season record
Reds: 7-24
Pirates: 13-17
We're fresh into this baseball season and of course it's AAA Sports jumping out to an 34-19-0 run in Major League Baseball over the course of the last 30 days. An incredible start to the season. We've seen some exciting games and some awesome moments, but what will happen as we keep rolling through the month of May? Catch AAA's plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Reds - Pirates preview and analysis
Here come the Cincinnati Reds. Kidding. Absolutely kidding. Maybe. I’m not sure. Why am I putting so much stock into the Reds scoring 14 runs in a win over the Milwaukee Brewers on the same day Christian Yelich hit for the cycle against them?
If this is the springboard for the Reds to claw back to .500 ball, it’d be hilarious. But they now hit the road to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in what can only be described as easy-to-win games with a chance of keeping the good vibes rolling.
But yes, the Reds won 14-11 to secure a series victory over the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers in what was a clinic from the plate. Despite Yelich hitting for the cycle for the third time of his career — all against the Reds — Cincy erupted for 14 runs on 14 hits and even led 14-5 before the Brewers erupted for six runs in the ninth.
Tyler Stephenson led the way by going 3-for-5 with four RBI, as the Reds went 4-2 in their homestand before departing for Pittsburgh.
“I was going to give him the full day off today because I want to keep him [healthy], and I had to be reminded by a couple coaches, ‘Maybe keep him in there as a DH,’” Reds manager David Bell said. “I’m grateful for that communication. It paid off. He’s going to need days off here and there. When we can keep him in the lineup, he showed how important he is.”
That decision paid off for Stephenson.
“I’m just trying to simplify and obviously just get a good pitch to hit and be on time,” Stephenson said. “That’s the biggest thing. I don’t ever try to do too much. When you do, nothing good ever really happens. Just try to be simple and get a good pitch to hit.”
Tommy Pham also added three hits and two RBI, being one of five players with at least two hits.
“The guys that have stepped in for them are playing really well and I love to see that, man,” Pham said. “As we’ve played more games, guys are getting more comfortable, timing is back offensively, the weather is starting to heat up, so you’re starting to see the ball carry a little bit further, which all plays to a hitter’s advantage.”
But the Reds aren’t the only ones producing series wins over National League contenders. The pesky Pirates found their way to a series victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers for the first time since 2016, winning 5-3 against the presumptive World Series favorites.
Daniel Vogelbach went 2-for-3, and Josh VanMeter drove in two runs from the eight spot, which put the Pirates to 13-17 and put them in a position to somehow stay relevant as we enter the mid-May march.
“There’s a lot of really good players on the Dodgers, and there’s a lot of really good players here,” Vogelbach said. “That’s why you play the game.”
Ultimate Herm Edwards energy here, and I’m sort of here for it.
Prediction
I’m really picking the Reds to keep the winning streak going, aren’t I? So much for relegation to Triple-A and whatnot. I’ll take the Reds because why not? Reds win 7-4
Betting trends
Reds are 2-15 this season as a road underdog.
Pirates are 470-345 since 1997 as a home favorite of -110 or higher.
Projected lineup
Reds:
TJ Friedl (L) CF
Brandon Drury (R) 2B
Tommy Pham (R) LF
Mike Moustakas (L) 3B
Tyler Stephenson (R) DH
Colin Moran (L) 1B
Tyler Naquin (L) RF
Kyle Farmer (R) SS
Aramis Garcia (R) C
SP - Connor Overton
TJ Friedl (L) CF
Brandon Drury (R) 2B
Tommy Pham (R) LF
Mike Moustakas (L) 3B
Tyler Stephenson (R) DH
Colin Moran (L) 1B
Tyler Naquin (L) RF
Kyle Farmer (R) SS
Aramis Garcia (R) C
SP - Connor Overton
Pirates:
Ben Gamel (L) LF
Bryan Reynolds (S) CF
Ke'Bryan Hayes (R) 3B
Daniel Vogelbach (L) DH
Michael Chavis (R) 1B
Jack Suwinski (L) RF
Diego Castillo (R) SS
Josh VanMeter (L) 2B
Andrew Knapp (S) C
SP - JT Brubaker
Ben Gamel (L) LF
Bryan Reynolds (S) CF
Ke'Bryan Hayes (R) 3B
Daniel Vogelbach (L) DH
Michael Chavis (R) 1B
Jack Suwinski (L) RF
Diego Castillo (R) SS
Josh VanMeter (L) 2B
Andrew Knapp (S) C
SP - JT Brubaker
Statistical leaders
Reds:
Batting average: Brandon Drury -- .267
Hits: Tommy Pham -- 25
Home runs: Brandon Drury -- 6
RBI: Brandon Drury -- 18
Wins: Many tied -- 1
Saves: Three tied -- 1
ERA: N/A
Pirates:
Batting average: Ke'Bryan Hayes -- .320
Hits: Ke'Bryan Hayes -- 32
Home runs: Daniel Vogelbach -- 5
RBI: Ben Gamel -- 14
Wins: Dillon Peters -- 3
Saves: David Bednar -- 5
ERA: Dillon Peters -- 1.83
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
