Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/02/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 6:35 pm ET, Saturday, October 2, 2021
Venue:  PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
Where to Watch:  Sportsnet PT

 

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Reds -160, Pirates +140; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Reds -165, Pirates +145; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Reds -175, Pirates +145; Over/Under:  8.5 runs
 

Season Record

Cincinnati Reds:  82-77 (3rd place, NL Central)
Pittsburgh Pirates:  59-100 (5th place, NL Central)
 
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Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview and Analysis

 
Recent Form
Cincinnati Reds:  5-5 last 10
Pittsburgh Pirates:  3-7 last 10
 
 
 

Cincinnati Reds Analysis

The Reds are coming into this game after losing their series finale against the Chicago White Sox on Wednesday in their two-game series with them. They were swept by them in those 2 games after beating the Pirates 13-1 in a one-off Monday game. They were eliminated from playoff contention after that game when the St. Louis Cardinals won and they proceeded to lose their next 2 games scoring just 2 runs total in them. They had Thursday off as a rest day and now come into this final three-game series on a 2 game losing streak. This will be the 2nd game in the series on Saturday with the series opener on Friday still to be played, the result is pending for that one. Luis Castillo was given the nod for their game on Friday while Tyler Mahle will be the starting pitcher for this game on Saturday. He is 13-6 with a 3.54 ERA this season and he is the starting pitcher in the rotation with the most wins on his team this season. He was credited with the win in his last time out and his team has won 4 of their last 5 games with him on the bump. In his last start, he allowed 1 run, it was not an ER, and 2 BB with 6 Ks on 3 hits through 6 IP against the Washington Nationals last Sunday. He has seen the Pirates lineup 4 times this season and he is 3-1 against them as he allowed less than 2 runs in 3 of those games and allowed 3 in the other. Their offense has scored 2 runs in their last 2 games averaging 1 run scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponent to score 13 runs against them in that same span allowing over 6 runs per game.
 

Pittsburgh Pirates Analysis

The Pirates are coming into this game after losing their series finale against the Chicago Cubs on Thursday 9-0. That loss put them on a 2 game losing streak and they have now lost 3 of their last 4 games. This will be their final series of the regular season with the series opener still to be played on Friday, that result is pending. This will be the 2nd game of that series on Saturday. Wil Crowe will be the starter for Friday's game while Max Kranick will be throwing the first pitch for them in this game on Saturday. This is his rookie season but he is 2-3 with a 6.23 ERA this year. He was credited with the win in his last time out but his team has lost 2 of their last 3 games with him starting. He has played in just a few games this season though. In his last start, he allowed 0 ER and 3 BB with 5 strikeouts on 4 hits through 5 innings of work against the Philadelphia Phillies last Sunday. This will be his first time facing the Reds lineup in his career. Their offense has scored 10 runs in their last 3 games averaging a little over 3 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 18 runs against them in that same span allowing 6 runs per game.
 

 

Reds vs Pirates Prediction

Both of these teams are in awful form right now and playing very bad in their games. The difference is the Pirates are just a bad team trying to win games while the Reds are a good team that have been demotivated by their elimination from playoff contention. Ever since it was official, they have lost both of their games scoring just 1 run in each and allowing 6 or more in each. The Pirates are at least trying to win still and finish their season off on a good note. The value in this game is on the Pirates at the big underdog price as both teams really have nothing to play for here. The best bet to make in this game is on the Pirates on the moneyline or on the runline.
 
Reds Pirates Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, October 2, 2021 (6:35 pm ET start time) is Pirates 3 Reds 1.
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MLB Betting Trends

 
Cincinnati Reds: 165-198 O/U in all games. 73-107 O/U in road games.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 50-94 (-16.3 units) as an underdog of +100 or higher. 59-100 (-14.2 units) in all games. 
 

Key Injuries

 
Cincinnati Reds:  W. Miley (SP) out for season - Neck injury. M. Moustakas (2B) out for season - Foot injury. J. Winker (RF) out for season - Back injury.
Pittsburgh Pirates:  D. Peters (RP) out for season - Back injury. K. Hayes (3B) out for season - Wrist injury. C. Overton (SP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder injury.
 

Players to Watch

 
Cincinnati Reds: Nick Castellanos is one player to watch in this matchup. He leads his team in batting average, hits and in RBI. He is a big part of this offense and they have not done anything in their last 2 games. Look for him to step up in this game and produce some offense here to help his team finish the season strong.
 
Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds is one player to watch in this contest. He leads his team in batting average, hits, homers, and in RBI. The Pirates are still fighting in every game to finish their season off on a good note so look for him to get some hits and bring in some runs to try and get another win for his team here with few games left.
 

Notable Quotes

 
"Really good stuff, really good. Maybe just missed off more than he caught the plate. ... Definitely could have been a different night." - David Bell on the performance of Sonny Gray in their loss to the White Sox on Wednesday.
 
 
 
"I was trying to find my rhythm, a good rhythm, and I couldn't find it. That first inning was OK, and then the second was like wild. ... I learned that I have to take advantage of the opportunity. This time, I didn't take advantage, but I think you have to keep working.” - Miguel Yajure on giving up a big home run in their loss to the Cubs on Thursday.
 

Starting Lineups

 
Cincinnati Reds
J. India 2B
T. Stephenson C
E. Suarez 3B
K. Farmer SS
J. Barrero CF
D. DeShields DH
A. Aquino RF
M. Schrock 1B
T. Friedl LF
 
Pittsburgh Pirates
M. Chavis 3B
Y. Tsutsugo RF
B. Reynolds CF
C. Moran 1B
J. Stallings C
A. Alford LF
C. Tucker 2B
K. Newman SS
M. Yajure P

Statistical Leaders

 
Cincinnati Reds
Batting Average:  N. Castellanos (.310)
Hits:  N. Castellanos (162)
Home Runs:  J. Votto (35)
RBI:  N. Castellanos (97)
Stolen Bases:  J. India (12)
Wins:  T. Mahle (13)
Saves:  M. Givens (8)
ERA:  A. Warren (1.42)
 
Pittsburgh Pirates
Batting Average:  BRYAN REYNOLDS (.298)
Hits: BRYAN REYNOLDS (165)
Home Runs:  BRYAN REYNOLDS (24)
RBI:  BRYAN REYNOLDS (89)
Stolen Bases:  K. Hayes (9)
Wins:  CHRIS STRATTON (6)
Saves: CHRIS STRATTON (7)
ERA:  D. Bednar (2.11)
 
Managers:
Cincinnati Reds: David Bell (3rd season)
Pittsburgh Pirates: Derek Shelton (2nd season)
 

Weather Forecast

72 degrees F mostly sunny, 55% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 4 mph wind speeds NE.


Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

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