Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/05/2025

Game Time: 4:05 pm ET, Saturday, July 5, 2025

Venue:  Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA

Where to Watch:  MLB.tv, FDSOH, NBCSP

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Reds +144, Phillies -176; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Reds +145, Phillies -175; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Reds +145, Phillies -175; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Cincinnati Reds:  45-42 (4th place, NL Central)

Philadelphia Phillies:  51-36 (1st place, NL East)

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Cincinnati Reds:  6-4 last 10

Philadelphia Phillies:  5-5 last 10

The Reds are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Boston Red Sox 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 45-42 record overall and have a road record of 21-23. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 14th in the MLB with a .721 OPS. Andrew Abbott is their starting pitcher on Friday while Nick Lodolo is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 5-5 with a 3.52 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 5 SO on 7 hits through 5.1 IP against the San Diego Padres.

The Phillies are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the San Diego Padres 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 51-36 record overall and have a home record of 28-15. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Reds on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 8th in the MLB with a .735 OPS. Jesús Luzardo is their starting pitcher on Friday while Ranger Suárez is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 7-2 with a 2.00 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 1 homer, and 1 walk with 8 strikeouts on 4 hits through 7 innings pitched against the Atlanta Braves.

The current betting odds have the Phillies listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Reds have looked good in their games this season with their 45-42 record overall, but that record still has them right near the bottom of the NL Central in a competitive division. They have not been a great road team this year either with their 21-23 road record. Meanwhile, the Phillies have looked great in their games this season with their 51-36 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL East with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 28-15 home record. The Reds have been the slightly hotter team lately, but the Phillies have the better pitching matchup in this one and they can take advantage of that at home. Suarez is on the mound for the Phillies in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 7-2 with a 2.00 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs all year. He is coming off another great start in which he only gave up 1 earned run which has been a common theme for him this year, and the team has also won 3 of their last 4 games with him starting. Lodolo is on the mound for the Reds in this one and he has looked good this year too. He is 5-5 with a 3.52 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start and the team has won 3 games in a row with him starting too, but he is going to struggle more in this road start. The Phillies have the edge at home here with the better starter in this one and they also have the better offense to help them out. The best way to place a bet here is on the Phillies to win this game. 

Reds Phillies Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 5, 2025 (4:05 pm ET start time) is Phillies 5 Reds 2.

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Cincinnati Reds: 203-207 (+10.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 115-131 (+22 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 103-103 (+24.1 units) on the moneyline in road games. 46-26 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 

Philadelphia Phillies: 46-37 (-4.2 units) on the moneyline against NL Central opponents. 76-63 (-6.1 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 101-105 (-20.4 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a winning record. 14-6 UNDER against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds:  S. Steer (1B) Day To Day - Hand. I. Gibaut (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. J. Fraley (RF) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. C. Joe (RF) Ten Day IL - Illness. W. Miley (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Flexor. G. Ashcraft (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Groin. H. Greene (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Groin. R. Lowder (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. C. Spiers (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Callihan (LF) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. N. Marte (3B) Ten Day IL - Side. B. Williamson (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Aguiar (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Philadelphia Phillies:  A. Nola (SP) Sixty Day IL - Ankle.

“We did some good things. And then we catch [some breaks]. … But to our credit, we took advantage of it and we got aggressive and did some really good things. Because, face it, that’s a really long day. And when you’re down for most of the day, it’s longer. So that’s going to make that plane ride a heckuva lot better.” - Terry Francona after his team’s win against the Red Sox in their game on Wednesday.

“He’s been just like the rest of them really. Just wonderful.” - Rob Thomson on Cristopher Sanchez after his team’s win against the Padres in game 2 of their double-header on Wednesday.

TJ Friedl (L) CF

Matt McLain (R) DH

Elly De La Cruz (S) SS

Austin Hays (R) LF

Spencer Steer (R) 1B

Tyler Stephenson (R) C

Noelvi Marte (R) 3B

Rece Hinds (R) RF

Santiago Espinal (R) 2B

Trea Turner (R) SS

Kyle Schwarber (L) DH

Bryce Harper (L) 1B

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Nick Castellanos (R) RF

J.T. Realmuto (R) C

Otto Kemp (R) LF

Edmundo Sosa (R) 2B

Johan Rojas (R) CF

Batting Average:  Austin Wynns (.400)

Hits:  Elly De La Cruz (92)

Home Runs:  Elly De La Cruz (18)

RBI:  Elly De La Cruz (58)

Stolen Bases:  Elly De La Cruz (22)

Wins:  Brady Singer (7)

Saves:  Emilio Pagán (18)

ERA:  Andrew Abbott (1.79)

Batting Average:  Trea Turner (.297)

Hits:  Trea Turner (104)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (26)

RBI:  Kyle Schwarber (58)

Stolen Bases:  Trea Turner (21)

Wins:  Zack Wheeler (8)

Saves:  Jordan Romano (8)

ERA:  Ranger Suárez (2.00)

Managers:

Cincinnati Reds: Terry Francona (1st season)

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (4th season)