Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/04/2025

Game Time: 1:05 pm ET, Friday, July 4, 2025

Venue:  Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA

Where to Watch:  MLB.tv, FDSOH, NBCSP

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Reds +128, Phillies -157; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Reds +130, Phillies -155; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Reds +125, Phillies -150; Over/Under:  8 runs

Cincinnati Reds:  45-42 (4th place, NL Central)

Philadelphia Phillies:  51-36 (1st place, NL East)

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Cincinnati Reds:  6-4 last 10

Philadelphia Phillies:  5-5 last 10

The Reds are entering this series off a win and lost their 3-game series against the Boston Red Sox 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 45-42 record overall and have a road record of 21-23. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 14th in the MLB with a .719 OPS. Nick Martinez was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Andrew Abbott is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-1 with a 1.79 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 4 SO on 7 hits through 5 IP against the San Diego Padres.

The Phillies are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the San Diego Padres 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 51-36 record overall and have a home record of 28-15. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Reds on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .734 OPS. Cristopher Sanchez was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Jesús Luzardo is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-4 with a 4.06 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 0 homers, and 3 walks with 7 strikeouts on 7 hits through 5 innings pitched against the Atlanta Braves.

The current betting odds have the Reds listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Reds have looked good in their games this season with their 45-42 record overall, but that record still has them right near the bottom of the NL Central in a competitive division. They have not been a great road team this year either with their 21-23 road record. Meanwhile, the Phillies have looked great in their games this season with their 51-36 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL East with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 28-15 home record. As good as the Phillies have looked this season, they are only 5-5 in their last 10 games while the Reds are 6-4, and the Reds do have the better pitching matchup in this one. Abbott is on the mound for the Reds in this one and he has been their ace this season. He is 7-1 with a 1.79 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs in his starts all year. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start which has been a common theme for him, and the team has won 3 of their last 4 games with him starting too. The Phillies are going with Luzardo in this one and he has looked good this season too. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start and has looked good lately, but he is also 7-4 with a 4.06 ERA. He has had a few starts this year where he has given up quite a few runs and the Reds do have a good offense that has been putting up runs lately. The Phillies have also lost 2 of their last 3 games with Luzardo starting and Abbott always gives the Reds their best chance to win when he is on the mound. The best way to place a bet here is on the Reds to win this game. 

Reds Phillies Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 4, 2025 (1:05 pm ET start time) is Reds 3 Phillies 1.

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Cincinnati Reds: 202-207 (+9.6 units) on the moneyline in all games. 114-131 (+20.9 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 102-103 (+23 units) on the moneyline in road games. 46-26 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%). 

Philadelphia Phillies: 46-37 (-4.2 units) on the moneyline against NL Central opponents. 76-63 (-6.1 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 100-104 (-20.4 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team  with a winning record. 25-14 UNDER at home against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds:  S. Steer (1B) Day To Day - Hand. I. Gibaut (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. J. Fraley (RF) Ten Day IL - Shoulder. C. Joe (RF) Ten Day IL - Illness. W. Miley (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Flexor. G. Ashcraft (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Groin. H. Greene (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Groin. R. Lowder (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. C. Spiers (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Callihan (LF) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. N. Marte (3B) Ten Day IL - Side. B. Williamson (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Aguiar (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Philadelphia Phillies:  A. Nola (SP) Sixty Day IL - Ankle.

“We did some good things. And then we catch [some breaks]. … But to our credit, we took advantage of it and we got aggressive and did some really good things. Because, face it, that’s a really long day. And when you’re down for most of the day, it’s longer. So that’s going to make that plane ride a heckuva lot better.” - Terry Francona after his team’s win against the Red Sox in their game on Wednesday.

“He’s been just like the rest of them really. Just wonderful.” - Rob Thomson on Cristopher Sanchez after his team’s win against the Padres in game 2 of their double-header on Wednesday.

TJ Friedl (L) CF

Matt McLain (R) SS

Elly De La Cruz (S) DH

Austin Hays (R) LF

Tyler Stephenson (R) C

Rece Hinds (R) RF

Gavin Lux (L) 2B

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R) 1B

Santiago Espinal (R) 3B

Trea Turner (R) SS

Kyle Schwarber (L) LF

Alec Bohm (R) 3B

Nick Castellanos (R) DH

Max Kepler (L) RF

Otto Kemp (R) 1B

Bryson Stott (L) 2B

Rafael Marchán (S) C

Brandon Marsh (L) CF

Batting Average:  Austin Wynns (.400)

Hits:  Elly De La Cruz (92)

Home Runs:  Elly De La Cruz (18)

RBI:  Elly De La Cruz (58)

Stolen Bases:  Elly De La Cruz (22)

Wins:  Brady Singer (7)

Saves:  Emilio Pagán (18)

ERA:  Andrew Abbott (1.79)

Batting Average:  Trea Turner (.297)

Hits:  Trea Turner (104)

Home Runs:  Kyle Schwarber (26)

RBI:  Kyle Schwarber (58)

Stolen Bases:  Trea Turner (21)

Wins:  Zack Wheeler (8)

Saves:  Jordan Romano (8)

ERA:  Ranger Suárez (2.00)

Managers:

Cincinnati Reds: Terry Francona (1st season)

Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (4th season)