by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Jul 17, 2025
Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Friday, July 18, 2025
Venue: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
Where to Watch: FDSOH, SNY
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Reds +138, Mets -169; Over/Under: 8 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Reds +145, Mets -175; Over/Under: 8 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Reds +145, Mets -175; Over/Under: 8 runs
Season Record
Cincinnati Reds: 50-47 (4th place, NL Central)
New York Mets: 55-42 (2nd place, NL East)
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Recent Form
Cincinnati Reds: 5-5 last 10
New York Mets: 6-4 last 10
Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Preview and Analysis
The Reds are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 50-47 record overall and have a road record of 22-25. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Mets on Friday. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .714 OPS. Nick Martinez was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Nick Lodolo is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 6-6 with a 3.38 ERA this season. His team won 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 4 SO on 3 hits through 6 IP against the Miami Marlins.
The Mets are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the Kansas City Royals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 55-42 record overall and have a home record of 33-14. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Reds on Friday. Their offense ranks 8th in the MLB with a .738 OPS. Clay Holmes was their starting pitcher on Sunday while Sean Manaea is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA this season. His team lost the only game this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 0 walks with 7 strikeouts on 5 hits through 3.1 innings pitched against the Kansas City Royals.
Reds vs Mets Prediction
The current betting odds have the Reds listed as an underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Reds have looked good in their games this season with their 50-47 record overall, but that record still has them near the bottom of the NL Central in a competitive division. They haven't been a great road team though with their 22-25 road record this season. Meanwhile, the Mets have looked really good in their games this season with their 55-42 record overall which has them right near the top of the NL East. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 33-14 home record. The Mets are going with Manaea in this one and he has looked good this season, but he only made the 1 appearance since he is coming back from an injury. He pitched a little over 3 innings and it wasn't a start, but he only gave up 1 earned run. His team still lost that game due to the run he gave up though, even being credited with the loss, and he isn't going to be at his best here in his 1st start of the season. The Reds are going with Lodolo in this one and he hasn't been great this year, but he has looked a lot better lately. He is 6-6 with a 3.38 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs lately. He is coming off another great start in which he gave up no runs, and the team has had a ton of success with him lately as they have won 4 of the last 5 games he started in. The Mets have looked good lately, but the Reds have the more reliable starter in this current situation and they also have a really good offense to help out too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Reds to win this game.
Reds Mets Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 18, 2025 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Reds 7 Mets 6.
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MLB Betting Trends
Cincinnati Reds: 208-212 (+9.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 104-105 (+23.5 units) on the moneyline in road games. 116-133 (+21.4 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 48-27 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%).
New York Mets: 45-43 (-8.5 units) on the moneyline against NL Central opponents. 226-208 (-10.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 53-37 (-12 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -150 or more. 14-5 OVER against NL Central opponents.
Key Injuries
Cincinnati Reds: I. Gibaut (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. W. Miley (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Flexor. H. Greene (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Groin. R. Lowder (SP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. C. Spiers (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Callihan (LF) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. B. Williamson (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Aguiar (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
New York Mets: D. Nunez (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Winker (LF) Ten Day IL - Back. S. Marte (LF) Ten Day IL - Knee. T. Megill (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Butto (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Illness. P. Blackburn (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. G. Canning (SP) Sixty Day IL - Achilles. J. Siri (CF) Sixty Day IL - Shin. M. Kranick (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. D. Young (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Minter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. B. Raley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. C. Scott (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. N. Madrigal (3B) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. D. Smith (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.
Notable Quotes
“You hope you play yourself into a position where when you show up at the ballpark, you get a little nervous. That’s fun. You’ve got a little anxiety. To me, that’s what this is all about. We’ve really got to push. But I still think our better days are ahead of us. I think it’ll be very exciting.” - Terry Francona on his team this season.
“Typical Sean Manaea. Fastball playing at the top of the zone and getting swings and misses. The sweeper was really good. We saw that the whole year [in 2024], and it was good to see it again today.” - Carlos Mendoza after his team’s loss against the Royals in their last game on Sunday.
Starting Lineups
Cincinnati Reds
TJ Friedl (L) CF
Matt McLain (R) 2B
Elly De La Cruz (S) SS
Austin Hays (R) LF
Spencer Steer (R) 1B
Noelvi Marte (R) DH
Tyler Stephenson (R) C
Santiago Espinal (R) 3B
Connor Joe (R) RF
New York Mets
Francisco Lindor (S) SS
Mark Vientos (R) DH
Juan Soto (L) RF
Pete Alonso (R) 1B
Brandon Nimmo (L) LF
Ronny Mauricio (S) 3B
Tyrone Taylor (R) CF
Luis Torrens (R) C
Luisangel Acuña (R) 2B
Statistical Leaders
Cincinnati Reds
Batting Average: Austin Wynns (.400)
Hits: Elly De La Cruz (105)
Home Runs: Elly De La Cruz (18)
RBI: Elly De La Cruz (63)
Stolen Bases: Elly De La Cruz (25)
Wins: Andrew Abbott (8)
Saves: Emilio Pagán (20)
ERA: Andrew Abbott (2.07)
New York Mets
Batting Average: Pete Alonso (.280)
Hits: Pete Alonso (101)
Home Runs: Juan Soto (23)
RBI: Pete Alonso (77)
Stolen Bases: Francisco Lindor (15)
Wins: Clay Holmes (8)
Saves: Edwin Díaz (19)
ERA: Rico Garcia (0.00)
Managers:
Cincinnati Reds: Terry Francona (1st season)
New York Mets: Carlos Mendoza (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
