by Rod Pearson
Saturday, Jul 29, 2023
Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Sunday, July 30, 2023
Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch: Sportsnet LA
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Reds +150, Dodgers -175; Over/Under: 10 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Reds +150, Dodgers -175; Over/Under: 10 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Reds +150, Dodgers -175; Over/Under: 10 runs
Season Record
Cincinnati Reds: 57-48 (2nd place, NL Central)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 58-44 (1st place, NL West)
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Recent Form
Cincinnati Reds: 7-3 last 10
Los Angeles Dodgers: 5-5 last 10
Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Preview and Analysis
The Reds are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 57-48 record overall and have a road record of 29-22. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the LA Dodgers on Sunday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Saturday. They also won the series opener of this series on Friday. Their offense ranks 10th in the MLB with a .744 OPS. Luke Weaver is their starting pitcher on Saturday while Graham Ashcraft is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 5-7 with a 5.64 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 4 BB with 8 Ks on 5 hits through 5.1 IP against the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Dodgers are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 58-44 record overall and have a home record of 30-19. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Reds on Sunday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Saturday. They also lost the 1st game of this series on Friday. Their offense ranks 3rd in the MLB with a .791 OPS. Rookie pitcher Emmet Sheehan is their starting pitcher on Saturday while Michael Grove is making his start in this game on Sunday. He is 2-2 with a 6.19 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 0 homers, and 0 BB with 6 strikeouts on 8 hits through 4.2 innings played against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Reds vs Dodgers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Dodgers listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Dodgers have been rolling in their games lately as they have one of the best offenses in the entire MLB and also have the lead of the NL West now, looking to extend their lead in the division. The Reds have also been rolling in their games lately but they have been a really offensive heavy team with bad pitching and a hot offense like the Dodgers can definitely take advantage of this pitching staff with how bad they have been all season. The Reds are also going to have Ashcraft starting here and he has been giving up a ton of runs all season. He is not going to be able to keep this Dodgers offense off the board and the Dodgers actually have the better pitching matchup with Grove starting for them. Grove was giving up a lot of runs at the start of the season but lately he has been a lot better and hasn't been giving up many runs at all in his last few starts. This Reds offense has been good this season but they haven't been as hot since coming out of the All-Star break and they are going to struggle more to compete with this Dodgers offense that has been rolling lately. The best way to place a bet here is on the Dodgers to win this game and on the runline.
Reds Dodgers Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Sunday, July 30, 2023 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Dodgers 10 Reds 3.
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MLB Betting Trends
Cincinnati Reds: 57-48 (+20.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 37-38 (+12.8 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 10-5 OVER as a road underdog of +150 to +200. GRAHAM ASHCRAFT is 8-2 OVER when the total is 10 or higher.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 22-20 (-15.7 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -150 or more. 58-44 (-6.1 units) on the moneyline in all games. 26-15 OVER as a favorite of -150 or more. 18-10 OVER against NL Central opponents.
Key Injuries
Cincinnati Reds: T. Antone (RP) Mid Aug - Elbow. N. Lodolo (SP) Late Aug - Calf. C. Legumina (SP) Mid Aug - Shoulder. C. Casali (C) Early Aug - Foot. V. Gutierrez (SP) Early Aug - Elbow. R. Sanmartin (SP) out for season - Elbow. H. Greene (SP) Prob Aug 20 - Hip. J. Dunn (SP) Mid Sept - Shoulder. C. Overton (SP) out for season - Elbow.
Los Angeles Dodgers: J. Deluca (LF) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. J. Marisnick (CF) Mid Aug - Hamstring. R. Pepiot (SP) Early Aug - Oblique. T. Cyr (RP) Early Aug - Shoulder. S. Miller (RP) Out indefinitely - Neck. C. Kershaw (SP) Early Aug - Shoulder. D. Hudson (RP) Early Sept - Knee. D. May (SP) out for season - Elbow. T. Thompson (LF) Early Aug - Oblique. A. Reyes (SP) out for season - Shoulder. J. Feyereisen (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. W. Buehler (SP) Early Sept - Elbow. G. Lux (2B) out for season - Knee. B. Treinen (RP) Early Sept - Shoulder.
Notable Quotes
“Our team has rallied around one another all year. They push each other.” - David Bell after his team’s win against the LA Dodgers in their game on Friday.
“You’ve just got to forget about that stuff. You can’t go back and change it. The best you can do is forget about that and move on to the next.” - Rookie pitcher Bobby Miller after their loss against the Reds in their game on Friday.
Starting Lineups
Cincinnati Reds
Elly De La Cruz (S) 3B
TJ Friedl (L) CF
Matt McLain (R) SS
Jake Fraley (L) RF
Jonathan India (R) 2B
Joey Votto (L) 1B
Spencer Steer (R) LF
Tyler Stephenson (R) C
Will Benson (L) DH
Los Angeles Dodgers
Mookie Betts (R) RF
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
Will Smith (R) C
J.D. Martinez (R) DH
Amed Rosario (R) SS
Max Muncy (L) 3B
Chris Taylor (R) LF
Enrique Hernandez (R) CF
Miguel Rojas (R) 2B
Statistical Leaders
Cincinnati Reds
Batting Average: Matt McLain (.305)
Hits: Spencer Steer (102)
Home Runs: Spencer Steer (15)
RBI: Jake Fraley (61)
Stolen Bases: Elly De La Cruz (17)
Wins: Ian Gibaut (8)
Saves: Alexis Diaz (31)
ERA: Ricky Karcher (0.00)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting Average: Enrique Hernandez (.500)
Hits: Freddie Freeman (134)
Home Runs: Mookie Betts (27)
RBI: J.D. Martinez (75)
Stolen Bases: Freddie Freeman (12)
Wins: Clayton Kershaw (10)
Saves: Evan Phillips (12)
ERA: Tyler Cyr (0.00)
Managers:
Cincinnati Reds: David Bell (5th season)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts (8th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
