by Rod Pearson
Friday, Jul 28, 2023
Game Time: 9:10 pm ET, Saturday, July 29, 2023
Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch: Sportsnet LA
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Reds +145, Dodgers -170; Over/Under: 10.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Reds +145, Dodgers -170; Over/Under: 10.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Reds +145, Dodgers -170; Over/Under: 10.5 runs
Season Record
Cincinnati Reds: 56-48 (2nd place, NL Central)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 58-43 (1st place, NL West)
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Recent Form
Cincinnati Reds: 6-4 last 10
Los Angeles Dodgers: 5-5 last 10
Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Preview and Analysis
The Reds are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 56-48 record overall and have a road record of 28-22. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the LA Dodgers on Saturday with the series opener of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 10th in the MLB with a .743 OPS. Rookie pitcher Brandon Williamson is their starting pitcher on Friday while Luke Weaver is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 2-2 with a 7.20 ERA this season. His team won 9 of their last 10 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 1 K on 8 hits through 4 IP against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Dodgers are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 58-43 record overall and have a home record of 30-18. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Reds on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 3rd in the MLB with a .789 OPS. Rookie pitcher Bobby Miller is their starting pitcher on Friday while rookie pitcher Emmet Sheehan is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 3-1 with a 6.75 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 8 earned runs, 0 homers, and 5 BB with 4 strikeouts on 8 hits through 3.2 innings played against the Texas Rangers.
Reds vs Dodgers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Reds listed as a big underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Reds have been having a good season with a really good offense that has been carrying them in a lot of their games. Lately their offense has been regressing but they are going to get their opportunities to put up runs in this game. The Dodgers have also been rolling in their games lately with one of the best offenses in the MLB, but they have their rookie Sheehan starting in this game and he has been terrible in his few starts. He started his MLB career off pitching so well in his first 2 starts but he has been falling apart since then, giving up a ton of runs in his starts lately. He is coming off his worst career start as he gave up 8 earned runs in their loss to the Rangers and he is not going to have an easier time trying to shut down this hot Reds offense. The Reds will take advantage of their scoring opportunities and even though they do have Weaver on the mound who has been terrible in his starts this season, giving up a ton of runs in a majority of his starts, the team has still had a ton of success with him as they have won 9 of their last 10 games with Weaver starting and their offense knows they will have to come to play in this game. The value is with the Reds here considering the pitching matchup and how good both offenses have been all year. The best way to place a bet here is on the Reds to win this game.
Reds Dodgers Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 29, 2023 (9:10 pm ET start time) is Reds 11 Dodgers 8.
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MLB Betting Trends
Cincinnati Reds: 56-48 (+18.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 36-38 (+10.9 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 9-5 OVER as a road underdog of +150 to +200. LUKE WEAVER is 17-7 OVER as an underdog of +100 or higher.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 22-19 (-13.6 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -150 or more. 4-6 (-4.6 units) on the moneyline when the total is 10 or higher. 25-15 OVER as a favorite of -150 or more. 17-10 OVER against NL Central opponents.
Key Injuries
Cincinnati Reds: T. Antone (RP) Mid Aug - Elbow. N. Lodolo (SP) Early Sept - Calf. C. Legumina (SP) Mid Aug - Shoulder. C. Casali (C) Early Aug - Foot. V. Gutierrez (SP) Early Aug - Elbow. R. Sanmartin (SP) Early Aug - Elbow. H. Greene (SP) Early Aug - Hip. J. Dunn (SP) Mid Sept - Shoulder. C. Overton (SP) out for season - Elbow.
Los Angeles Dodgers: J. Deluca (LF) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. J. Marisnick (CF) Mid Aug - Hamstring. R. Pepiot (SP) Early Aug - Oblique. T. Cyr (RP) Early Aug - Shoulder. S. Miller (RP) Out indefinitely - Neck. C. Kershaw (SP) Early Aug - Shoulder. D. Hudson (RP) Early Sept - Knee. D. May (SP) out for season - Elbow. T. Thompson (LF) Early Aug - Oblique. A. Reyes (SP) out for season - Shoulder. J. Feyereisen (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. W. Buehler (SP) Early Sept - Elbow. G. Lux (2B) out for season - Knee. B. Treinen (RP) Early Sept - Shoulder.
Notable Quotes
“That falls into the category of falling out of our control. I really understand the importance of playing the divisional opponent who you are battling it out with. Those are important games. But we have a lot of games left that are going to be very important and that’ll be our focus." - David Bell after his team’s loss against the Brewers in their game on Wednesday.
“It was a wild game. We didn't quit, played until the last out and came away with the win. Once we got the tying run to the plate we realized we had a chance and battled.” - James Outman after their win against the Blue Jays in their game on Tuesday.
Starting Lineups
Cincinnati Reds
Elly De La Cruz (S) 3B
TJ Friedl (L) CF
Matt McLain (R) SS
Jake Fraley (L) RF
Jonathan India (R) 2B
Joey Votto (L) DH
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R) 1B
Tyler Stephenson (R) C
Will Benson (L) LF
Los Angeles Dodgers
Mookie Betts (R) RF
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
J.D. Martinez (R) DH
Chris Taylor (R) LF
Max Muncy (L) 3B
Enrique Hernandez (R) 2B
James Outman (L) CF
Miguel Rojas (R) SS
Austin Barnes (R) C
Statistical Leaders
Cincinnati Reds
Batting Average: Matt McLain (.301)
Hits: Spencer Steer (100)
Home Runs: Spencer Steer (14)
RBI: Jake Fraley (59)
Stolen Bases: Elly De La Cruz (17)
Wins: Ian Gibaut (8)
Saves: Alexis Diaz (30)
ERA: Ricky Karcher (0.00)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting Average: Enrique Hernandez (.500)
Hits: Freddie Freeman (132)
Home Runs: Mookie Betts (27)
RBI: J.D. Martinez (74)
Stolen Bases: Freddie Freeman (12)
Wins: Clayton Kershaw (10)
Saves: Evan Phillips (12)
ERA: Tyler Cyr (0.00)
Managers:
Cincinnati Reds: David Bell (5th season)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts (8th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
