by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Jul 27, 2023
Game Time: 10:10 pm ET, Friday, July 28, 2023
Venue: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch: Sportsnet LA
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Reds +190, Dodgers -225; Over/Under: 9.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Reds +190, Dodgers -225; Over/Under: 9.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Reds +190, Dodgers -225; Over/Under: 9.5 runs
Season Record
Cincinnati Reds: 56-48 (2nd place, NL Central)
Los Angeles Dodgers: 58-43 (1st place, NL West)
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Recent Form
Cincinnati Reds: 6-4 last 10
Los Angeles Dodgers: 5-5 last 10
Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Preview and Analysis
The Reds are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 56-48 record overall and have a road record of 28-22. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the LA Dodgers on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 10th in the MLB with a .743 OPS. Ben Lively was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while rookie pitcher Brandon Williamson is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 2-2 with a 4.60 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 5 Ks on 3 hits through 6 IP against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Dodgers are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 58-43 record overall and have a home record of 30-18. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Reds on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 3rd in the MLB with a .789 OPS. Tony Gonsolin was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while rookie pitcher Bobby Miller is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 6-1 with a 4.28 ERA this season. His team won 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 1 homer, and 0 BB with 6 strikeouts on 7 hits through 6 innings played against the Texas Rangers.
Reds vs Dodgers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Dodgers listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Dodgers have been starting to roll in their games lately, they have had one of the best offenses in the MLB all season and now they have the lead in the NL West as they are looking to keep that. They have been playing really well out of the All-Star break and have been a very good home team all year. The Reds have also been having a good season with a winning record but they have been regressing lately as they lean on their offense to win a lot of games and their offense has been cooling off lately, not scoring as many runs now. Their pitching has also been really bad all year and they are going to have a really tough time keeping one of the best offenses in the league off the board here when the Dodgers have been so hot lately. The Dodgers are also going with their rookie Miller in this game and he has been a solid starter for them this season. He will do his best to keep this regressing Reds offense at bay while the Dodgers hot offense puts up a ton of runs on their rookie Williamson and that bullpen that has been so bad all year. The best way to place a bet here is on the Dodgers to win this game and on the runline.
Reds Dodgers Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 28, 2023 (10:10 pm ET start time) is Dodgers 8 Reds 3.
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MLB Betting Trends
Cincinnati Reds: 56-48 (+18.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 36-38 (+10.9 units) on the moneyline as an underdog of +100 or higher. 8-4 OVER as an underdog of +175 to +250. 8-3 OVER after 5 or more consecutive unders.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 22-19 (-13.6 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -150 or more. 12-16 (-12.8 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 25-15 OVER as a favorite of -150 or more. 23-9 OVER after 2 straight games where they committed no errors.
Key Injuries
Cincinnati Reds: T. Antone (RP) Mid Aug - Elbow. N. Lodolo (SP) Early Sept - Calf. C. Legumina (SP) Mid Aug - Shoulder. C. Casali (C) Early Aug - Foot. V. Gutierrez (SP) Early Aug - Elbow. R. Sanmartin (SP) Early Aug - Elbow. H. Greene (SP) Early Aug - Hip. J. Dunn (SP) Mid Sept - Shoulder. C. Overton (SP) out for season - Elbow.
Los Angeles Dodgers: J. Deluca (LF) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. J. Marisnick (CF) Mid Aug - Hamstring. R. Pepiot (SP) Early Aug - Oblique. T. Cyr (RP) Early Aug - Shoulder. S. Miller (RP) Out indefinitely - Neck. C. Kershaw (SP) Early Aug - Shoulder. D. Hudson (RP) Out indefinitely - Knee. D. May (SP) out for season - Elbow. T. Thompson (LF) Early Aug - Oblique. A. Reyes (SP) out for season - Shoulder. N. Syndergaard (SP) Out indefinitely - Finger. J. Feyereisen (RP) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. W. Buehler (SP) Early Sept - Elbow. G. Lux (2B) out for season - Knee. B. Treinen (RP) Early Sept - Shoulder.
Notable Quotes
“That falls into the category of falling out of our control. I really understand the importance of playing the divisional opponent who you are battling it out with. Those are important games. But we have a lot of games left that are going to be very important and that’ll be our focus." - David Bell after his team’s loss against the Brewers in their game on Wednesday.
“It was a wild game. We didn't quit, played until the last out and came away with the win. Once we got the tying run to the plate we realized we had a chance and battled.” - James Outman after their win against the Blue Jays in their game on Tuesday.
Starting Lineups
Cincinnati Reds
Elly De La Cruz (S) 3B
TJ Friedl (L) CF
Matt McLain (R) SS
Jake Fraley (L) RF
Jonathan India (R) 2B
Joey Votto (L) DH
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (R) 1B
Tyler Stephenson (R) C
Will Benson (L) LF
Los Angeles Dodgers
Mookie Betts (R) RF
Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
J.D. Martinez (R) DH
Chris Taylor (R) LF
Max Muncy (L) 3B
Enrique Hernandez (R) 2B
James Outman (L) CF
Miguel Rojas (R) SS
Austin Barnes (R) C
Statistical Leaders
Cincinnati Reds
Batting Average: Matt McLain (.301)
Hits: Spencer Steer (100)
Home Runs: Spencer Steer (14)
RBI: Jake Fraley (59)
Stolen Bases: Elly De La Cruz (17)
Wins: Ian Gibaut (8)
Saves: Alexis Diaz (30)
ERA: Ricky Karcher (0.00)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Batting Average: Enrique Hernandez (.500)
Hits: Freddie Freeman (132)
Home Runs: Mookie Betts (27)
RBI: J.D. Martinez (74)
Stolen Bases: Freddie Freeman (12)
Wins: Clayton Kershaw (10)
Saves: Evan Phillips (12)
ERA: Tyler Cyr (0.00)
Managers:
Cincinnati Reds: David Bell (5th season)
Los Angeles Dodgers: Dave Roberts (8th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
