Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Indians Prediction, Preview & Odds -- August 9, 2021

by Big Al Staff

Game time: 6:10 p.m. ET
Venue: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Where to watch: Bally Sports Ohio, Bally Sports Great Lakes

Season-to-date (entering Sunday)
Reds: 60-51 (2nd place, NL Central)
Indians: 53-55 (2nd place, AL Central)

Projected lineups


Reds:
Jonathan India (R) 2B
Jesse Winker (L) LF
Nick Castellanos (R) RF
Joey Votto (L) 1B
Tyler Stephenson (R) C
Tucker Barnhart (L) DH
Kyle Farmer (R) SS
Eugenio Suarez (R) 3B
Shogo Akiyama (L) CF

Indians:
Myles Straw (R) CF
Bradley Zimmer (L) RF
Jose Ramirez (S) 3B
Franmil Reyes (R) DH
Oscar Mercado (R) LF
Owen Miller (R) 1B
Andres Gimenez (L) SS
Austin Hedges (R) C
Ernie Clement (R) 2B

Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Reds -165, Indians +145; O/U 8.5
BetMGM: Reds -140, Indians +115
Bet365: Reds -130, Indians +110

Recent form (entering Sunday)

Reds: Four straight wins, winners of nine of 11
Indians: Losers of four of five

Sean Murphy is 116-86 this season (+$12,000) after a 2-2 run on Saturday. Make sure to catch Sean’s daily MLB picks, as well as our other handicappers’ thoughts on our Best Bets site.

Reds - Indians Preview


Sometimes, there are teams that you want to see make a run, but you think they’ve run out of time and can’t string enough of a hot streak to make it happen.

That’s the way to characterize the Cincinnati Reds right now.

They’re playing such fun baseball, winning eight of their last 10, including four straight entering the fourth and final game of their series Sunday afternoon against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Unfortunately for the Reds, the Milwaukee Brewers have been just as fun, maintaining a six-game lead for first place in the National League Central.

Even with the Reds’ stretch of winning, they’ve only been able to gain one game on the red-hot Brewers.

Cincinnati will try to keep the pressure on when they make a quick one-game trip to Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Indians on Monday.

Part of Cincy’s resurgence and playoff chase has been the power revival of Joey Votto. Dating back to July 23, Votto is batting .333 with 11 home runs and 24 RBI. The Reds have gone 10-4 in that stretch. There was also a stretch where he homered in seven straight games, breaking a Reds record.

Luis Castillo is expected to start for Cincinnati. The 28-year-old right-hander has won his last three starts, going at least 6 IP in each of them and allowing five total earned runs. His 4.09 ERA is still up there, but his recent performances should give manager David Bell plenty of confidence beginning this seven-game road trip; the Reds will be at the Atlanta Braves starting Tuesday, then a crucial three-game series at the Philadelphia Phillies starting Friday.

The Indians continue to fall out of favor in the American League Central. No one will be catching the Chicago White Sox; Cleveland is 10.5 games out. So it’s pride at this rate, especially in the starting rotation.

Cleveland entered Sunday with a chance to win a three-game series against the Detroit Tigers. The Indians lost 2-1 on Saturday. After the Reds, they’ll host a three-game set against the Oakland Athletics.

It’s been rough for Cleveland from a rotation standpoint. Already down Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale, the Indians have had to rely on Zach Plesac to be their ace. No other healthy starter has more than one win. It’s been that bad of a season for the Indians with a depleted roster, which is weird for a near-.500 team. Logan Allen is the projected starter for Cleveland.

Trends


The Reds have done well as a heavy favorite. They’re 17-6 when their line is -150 or more. The over is 16-6 when they are given that distinction, as well.

Cleveland has not done well from a dog stand point; the Indians are 18-22 when between +100 and +150, and 7-14 (-5.8 units) when a home dog of +100 or higher. The over, too, has cashed in those situations.

Reds - Indians Prediction


It almost seems too good to be true to take the Reds on the money line. They’re going to be doing a lot of traveling this week, and we’d expect them to fall a little bit. Monday should not be the case. Reds win, over cashes.

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