Cincinnati Red vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Odds and Preview - 08/27/2021

by James Q


Cincinnati Red vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Odds and Preview - 08/27/2021


Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Friday, August 27th, 2021
Venue:  LoanDepot Park, Miami, Florida
Where to Watch:  Bally Sports Ohio, Bally Sports Florida

Season-to-Date Record:


Reds: 69-59 (2nd place, NL Central)
Marlins:  52-75 (last place NL East)

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks:

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds: Reds -150, Marlins +130; Over/Under:  8 runs


Key Injuries:

Reds: Brad Brach (shoulder) 10 day IL, Tejay Antone (forearm) 10 day IL
Marlins: Trevor Roger (it’s personal) Day to Day, Pablo Lopez (shoulder) 10 day IL

Recent Lineups:


Reds:

J. India, 2B
T. Stephenson, C
N. Castellanos, RF
J. Votto, 1B
A. Aquino, LF
E. Suarez, 3B
T. Naquin, CF
J. Barrero, SS
S. Gray, P

Marlins:

M. Rojas, SS
J. Aguilar, 1B
L. Brinson, CF
J. Sanchez, RF
B. Anderson, 3B
J. Alfaro, C
I. Diaz, 2B
B. De La Cruz, LF
E. Hernandez, P

Statistical Leaders:


Reds:

Batting Average:  Nick Castellanos (.320)
Hits:  Nick Castellanos (130)
Home Runs:  Joey Votto (28)
RBI:  Joey Votto (81)
Stolen Bases:  Jonathan India (8)
Wins:  Tyler Mahle (10)
Saves: Heath Hembree (8)
ERA:  Wade Miley (2.88)

Marlins:


Batting Average:  Miguel Rojas (.271)
Hits: Jesus Aguilar (110)
Home Runs:  Jesus Aguilar (22)
RBI:  Jesus Aguilar (89)
Stolen Bases:  Jazz Chisolm Jr  (16)
Wins:  Sandy Alcantara (7)
Saves:  Yimi Garcia (15)
ERA:  Sandy Alcantara (3.35)

Managers:


Reds:  David Bell
Marlins:  Don Mattingly

Recent Form:


The Reds are 6-4 over their last ten games.  Going 4 Overs and 6 Unders.  They are 31-27-5 O/U on the road this season.  The Over has cashed in better at home, but they still lean into the Over in road contests. They went 1-2 against the Milwaukee Brewers, swept the Miami Marlins 4-0 (!), went 1-2 against the Chicago Cubs.

The Marlins are 2-8 over their last ten games.  Going 3 Overs and 7 Unders.  27-32-3 in O/U this season at home. They are circling the drain , with an 8-game losing streak wedged into the middle of this ten games.  They went 1-1 against the Washington Nationals, got swept by the Cincinnati Reds (1) 4-0 in a four-game series, swept by the Atlanta Braves 3-0 in a three-game series, went 1-0 against the Chicago Cubs.

In direct competition over the last 9 days this matchup resulted in 3 Unders and 1 Over.  

Statistical Comparison:


The Reds are 6th in batting average .251, 4th in runs scored 647, and 5th in home runs 179.  The bats are hot in Cincinnati.  This is the type of team that can go off and score a bunch of runs.  If a 1 and done wild card game is played, they will cause fear. But can they pitch?

The Reds pitchers are 17th in ERA 4.39, 5th in strikeouts 1225, and bottom half in runs allowed by a pitcher 610.  Their soft spot is they allow home runs.  And they are #1 in allowing walks.  They are not a great team because they walk batters and eventually someone hits one out.  If they could shore that weakness up… they would be a chart topping MLB smash hit.


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Reds vs Marlins Game Preview:


The Reds will start Wade Miley 10-4, 2.88 ERA, 107 strikeouts in 137 innings pitched.  Wade is a pro.  A consummate killer.  He made his debut in August of 2011 and has pitched 1555 innings since.  His career ERA is 4.12, but he has improved year over year (exempting 2020) the last few years.  The 34 year old was an NL all star in 2012 and magically seems back to form this season.

The Marlins will start Zach Thompson 2-5, 2.97 ERA, 51 strikeouts in 57 innings pitched, 1.09 WHIP.  He debuted in June! The 27 year old Burleson Texas product was available because I heard the soup can was busy.  Have I mentioned the Over is due?

Notable quotes:


“It’s why we all do this, me included,.... I love the competition. I love being here with and for our players, for our team, doing my part, trying to contribute in any way I can. I enjoy it. These games, this type of atmosphere, when you’re playing meaningful games, that’s what we’re all in this for.”      -Reds manager David Bell

“He’s starting to move around,....He feels like closer. The first couple of days were tough for him, he said, and then after that, he started to feel better kind of right away. Hopefully, he’s just kind of waiting out the process and the protocols and those things to be ready to return, but I’m sure he’s eager to get back and he’ll be ready to go.”        -James Rowson, Bench coach Marlins, on Mattingly’s return from Covid-19 earlier in the month.  Mattingly is vaccinated. Dummies are not.


Reds Vs Marlins Prediction:

 Our MLB Pick for Friday, August 27th game is Reds 9  Marlins 2.  I’d bet the over.  It’s due.


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James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

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