by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Dec 22, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Bengals -3; Bengals -170, Patriots +145; O/U 41.5
FanDuel: Bengals -3; Bengals -176, Patriots +148; O/U 41.5
BetMGM: Bengals -3; Bengals -160, Patriots +145; O/U 41.5
Caesars: Bengals -3; Bengals -161, Patriots +135; O/U 41.5
Season record
Bengals: 10-4 (Clinched playoff berth; 1st place, AFC North)
Patriots: 7-7 (3rd place, AFC East)
We’re coming down the home stretch of the NFL season and there’s still a lot left to get excited for on your TV screen (or your streaming device if you’re like me and watch Sunday Ticket on a Fire Stick. That works, too). Nevertheless, the final few weeks of the regular season are going to be hectic for everyone on the field, but just as much as everyone off it. You’re probably going to need to figure out which plays are the best ones in terms of teams sitting the star players for the playoff advantage, or which teams are going all in for the final playoff push. If you need that extra push, trust that our champion handicappers can get the job done for you. Matt Fargo has a 17-9-0 run over the last 30 days in the NFL. Brian Bitler has continued to stay consistent, despite a wild, unpredictable season, by going 16-9-0. Do you want a piece of this action? Make sure to stay locked to bigal.com and follow our champion handicappers so you can be a champion, too!
Bengals - Patriots preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Bengals: won 34-23 at Buccaneers
Patriots: lost 30-24 at Raiders
Bengals analysis
The Cincinnati Bengals are on an absolute tear. Since that Monday night loss to the Cleveland Browns on Halloween night, the reigning AFC champions have rattled off six straight wins — including two against division leaders — and suddenly look like one of the best teams in the AFC.
Not only have the Bengals won six straight, but they have covered as well in the last six, with four coming in comfortable fashion. And the Bengals have been favored in five of those matchups. And the latest, being a 34-23 come-from-behind win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, was just the latest in that interesting quest of this team finding different ways to win.
Joe Burrow tied a career-high with four touchdown passes last week and has thrown two touchdowns in three straight games. If you don’t have Burrow in your MVP consideration, you need to start thinking of it that way. He’s just 115 yards from joining Carson Palmer as the only Bengals quarterbacks to ever have consecutive 4,000-yard seasons.
Now that Ja’Marr Chase is back in the fold, that’s within reach. Chase is 119 yards from another 1,000-yard campaign despite missing a month due to injury. He has six games of at least seven receptions and at least 50 yards. Just insane how good this kid is.
The total has split during this winning streak. The Bengals had three straight unders before the over cashed last week against Tampa Bay. Prior to that, the over went 4-0-1 in the previous five. The Bengals are going to score points and their defense is good enough to hold average offenses in check. How that translates to this matchup will be something to watch.
Patriots analysis
I still can’t believe that happened. I was even at Allegiant Stadium on Sunday catching the game with my dudes and some beers, and thought I was hallucinating the entire thing. There’s no way I saw Jakobi Meyers throw a lateral 10 yards back to Chandler Jones on the final play of the game and lose 30-24 to the Raiders in that fashion. No way, right?
Because nothing that stupid should ever come from a Bill Belichick coached team. And if you believe Mac Jones can’t throw a ball 50 yards down field for a Hail Mary, then put someone else you think can get the ball down field. What an absolute travesty, and hilarious instance, that might have cost the Patriots a shot at the playoffs.
That loss not only gave the Patriots their third loss in four games, but also a third ATS loss in their last four. The total has also split in the last four and I can’t really put my finger on where I trust New England from that standpoint.
Mac Jones has not thrown an interception at home in four straight home starts, and he’s done well against the AFC North with two straight games of 250 passing yards or more. Rhamondre Stevenson has also turned into a tremendous answer at running back, but they need a better balancing act if they have a chance against this Bengals team. So far, that doesn’t seem likely.
Prediction
The Bengals have been able to bounce back well against the spread when they allow 250 passing yards or more the previous game, going 5-0 ATS in their last five. This shouldn’t be much of a challenge to overcome if that’s the case. Bengals by 14
Betting trends
Patriots are 96-61 ATS as an underdog since 1992.
Patriots are 37-20 ATS in the last 2 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
Bengals are 34-17 ATS in all games the last three seasons.
Bengals are 22-15 ATS after covering in 6 or 7 of the last eight since 1992.
Statistical leaders
Bengals:
Passing: Joe Burrow – 3,885 yards, 31 TD, 10 INT
Rushing: Joe Mixon – 722 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: Ja’Marr Chase – 881 yards, 8 TD
Defense: Sam Hubbard – 6.5 sacks
Patriots:
Passing: Mac Jones – 2,310 yards, 7 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: Rhamondre Stevenson – 914 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Jakobi Meyers – 640 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Matthew Judon – 14.5 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
