Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Houston Cougars Prediction & Game Preview - 3/1/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Tuesday, Mar 01, 2022
Time: 9 p.m. ET
Venue: Fertitta Center, Houston, TX
Where to watch: ESPNU

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Houston -14.5
BetMGM: Houston -15.5
Caesars: Houston -15.5

Season record
Cincinnati: 17-12 (7-9 AAC)
No. 14 Houston: 24-4 (13-2 AAC)

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Cincinnati - Houston preview and analysis


Cincinnati analysis


Get ready for yet another possible blowout this time in the American Athletic Conference. Because the way the Cincinnati Bearcats have been playing over the last couple of weeks, I don't really like their chances going against the 14th ranked Houston Cougars on Tuesday, but at least have them show up for the effort I suppose.

Cincinnati is probably coming off their most humiliating loss of the season by two points to South Florida. I say that because South Florida came into this game with only seven wins on the actual Ledger. Cincinnati, who still has aspirations for like the NIT or the CBI, decided that Saturday was a day to choose violence and completely not show up in a game that they should have won easily. It's almost ridiculous that it required South Florida's leading scorer to have 13 points and to shoot 39% from the field in order to win this game.

Because it's not like it was any better for Cincinnati either when you have David DeJulius be held to just seven points on two of 10 shooting, as well as Jeremiah Davenport shooting two of nine from the field and finishing with seven points. When your leading scorer is John Newman the 3rd, you're probably in for a rough night. And not that there is anything wrong with a man who is the third of his family, but to be your leading scorer with 11 points and eight rebounds is just horrible.

The loss was Cincinnati’s third straight and five in their last six. It is just about God awful that we've even reached this point. Unlike their football counterparts, Cincinnati just does not have a chance here. And if there was any last-ditch effort to pick them in the conference tournament because there's always that 117 win team that kind of shocks the world, get off that imagination 'cause it ain't happening.

Houston analysis


Meanwhile, we save this space for teams that actually know how to play basketball and know how to do it well. The Houston Cougars are your regular-season conference champions and our just about inches away from me believing that they can go on a run to the elite eight or the final four.

It might have been Houston's most impressive game of the season just because of the magnitude, the opponent, and the potential outcome should they have wanted. Houston welcomed SMU, who beat Houston at home earlier in the season and dominated behind a strong first half in which they led by 15 points.

Fabian white junior led the way with 21 points and nine rebounds, and three blocks as well, to lead Houston to victory. Josh Carlton also had 19 points and eight rebounds and Jamal Shead had 10 points and 11 assists. The fact that someone Had almost as many assists as they did field goal attempts says a lot about the current structure of that team. And the fact that a team actually put up 75 points despite shooting two of 15 from 3 point range also tells me that this team is one of the weirder ranked teams that we've seen in a long time.

It's a group that doesn't know how to shoot the three-ball as evidence of the last few games, and the fact that they also shot only 65% from the free-throw line also tells us that they are doing everything inside and they are dominating inside with the likes of Carlton and White.

This group has what it takes to make a deep run, and it's no surprise that they went on a deep run a few years ago before COVID happened. But I would just like to think that a team that can't hit 3 pointers is going to have to figure out how to make them eventually, but if you're getting to the point where you can make your shots like this and you can dominate in the paint, who am I to judge?

Prediction


And again like the theme for most of our games on this day, don't overthink it. I'm starting to think that should be my catchphrase. Don't overthink it though. Houston is just on a roll right now and now that they've got their most difficult tests out of the way, I could see them resting their starters for the conference tournament, but I also believe when it comes to college basketball that teams want their players to be playing at their absolute best going into the conference tournament so it would not shock me if Houston played everyone under the sun. With that being said I'm thinking at home Houston is going to win this game and runaway in convincing fashion. Houston by 25

Betting trends


Cincinnati is 28-50 ATS the past three seasons.

Cincinnati is 8-21 ATS after losing four of five.

Houston is 47-34 ATS as a favorite.

Projected starting lineup


Cincinnati:
PG: David DeJulius
SG: Mika Adams-Woods
SF: John Newman
PF: Jeremiah Davenport
C: Abdul Ado

Houston:
PG: Jamal Shead
SG: Kyler Edwards
SF: Taze Moore
PF: Fabian White
C: Josh Carlton

Statistical leaders


Cincinnati:
Points: David DeJulius -- 14.4
Rebounds: Jeremiah Davenport -- 5.5
Assists: Mika Adams-Woods -- 3.2

Houston:
Points: Kyler Edwards -- 13.6
Rebounds: Josh Carlton -- 6.6
Assists: Jamal Shead -- 5.8

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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