by Chuck Sommers
Saturday, Sep 03, 2022
Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Arkansas -6.5, total 53.5
FanDuel: Arkansas -6.5, total 53.5
BetMGM: Arkansas -6.5, total 53.5
Caesars: Arkansas -6.5, total 53.5
2021 season record
No. 23 Cincinnati: 13-1 (8-0 AAC), won conference title, reached College Football Playoff but lost to Alabama in Cotton Bowl
No. 19 Arkansas: 8-4 (4-4 SEC), won Outback Bowl vs. Penn State
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Cincinnati - Arkansas preview, analysis and prediction
Sometimes, you’d think it’d be very hard to believe that the Cincinnati Bearcats could actually be better than last year. I don’t want to put that out into the ether quite yet, but at the very least, the Bearcats are going to be competitive.
How much they will be – following the NFL departures of quarterback Desmond Ridder and top-5 pick Sauce Gardner, along with seven others – remains to be seen. But you can’t think of a more difficult way to test yourself and see how good you are this season than a Week 1 matchup against the Arkansas Razorbacks, in Fayetteville, on Saturday.
The Bearcats’ incredible run in 2021 was something else. Cincinnati went 13-0, reached the College Football Playoff before ultimately being manhandled by Alabama. In an effort that is absolutely nothing to sneeze at, coach Luke Fickell brings back 12 starters for the two-time conference champions.
Cincinnati will have three senior defensive linemen and three senior corners back this year, along with All-American tight end Josh Whyle. Now, if senior quarterback Ben Bryant can replicate any of what Ridder did last year, the Bearcats will be in the driver’s seat.
But to ask anyone, even a senior, to do what Ridder did in becoming a Heisman-caliber quarterback for a school that wasn’t expected, is a tall task for anyone. So much so that the national polls have them ranked 23rd in the nation to begin the year.
It’s going to have to be on the defense that has averaged two turnovers per game since 2019, and has a +23 turnover margin. This is a program that is 44-7 since 2018 and that’s not by accident.
Cincinnati comes into this matchup with Arkansas having won eight consecutive true road game, with the last loss coming against Memphis in December 2019 in the conference title game. But going against Arkansas might be one of the Bearcats’ tougher games in a long time. There haven’t been many times Cincy has played such a tough game to begin the season, but alas, the Razorbacks are that group.
And outside of Bryce Young, whom the Bearcats actually played well against in the CFP, Cincy might not play a quarterback this season as good as Arkansas senior KJ Jefferson, coming off a ridiculously great season a year ago. Jefferson is one of two quarterbacks returning this season to lead their team in passing and rushing, the other being Malik Jefferson in Louisville. He also completed 171 straight passes without an interception. Imagine if he gets off to that kind of start again.
But that might not be happening again with Raheim Sanders taking over the load after a fun true freshman season last year. He ran for 578 yards and five touchdowns and is expected to have a big role as a sophomore.
Ultimately, it might come down to which quarterback makes the fewest mistakes. With two veterans, but one more proven, it might comes down to that.
Prediction
Alas, Cincinnati’s trends as an underdog against the spread make this an enticing play at the very least. Defense always tends to travel well, and barring a complete dropoff on that side of the ball with those veterans, Cincinnati should pull off the upset on the road. Cincinnati wins by 6
Betting trends
Cincinnati is 80-67 ATS as an underdog since 1992.
Cincinnati is 5-3 ATS in non-conference games over the past three seasons.
Cincinnati is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 against SEC opponents.
Arkansas is 83-86 ATS as a favorite since 1992, but 5-3 in the past three seasons.
Arkansas is 5-0 ATS in September games the past three years.
Statistical leaders
Cincinnati
Passing: Desmond Ridder -- 3,334 yards, 30 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: Jerome Ford -- 1,319 yards, 19 TD
Receiving: Alec Pierce -- 884 yards, 8 TD
Defense: Curtis Brooks -- 7.5 sacks
Arkansas
Passing: KJ Jefferson -- 2,676 yards, 21 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: KJ Jefferson -- 664 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: Treylon Burks -- 1,104 yards, 11 TD
Defense: Bumper Pool -- 125 tackles
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
