by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Wednesday, Dec 15, 2021
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Friday, December 31, 2021
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Cincinnati +13.5, Alabama -13.5; Over/Under: 58 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Cincinnati +13.5, Alabama -13.5; Over/Under: 58 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Cincinnati +13.5, Alabama -13.5; Over/Under: 58.5 points
Season Record
Cincinnati Bearcats: 13-0 (1st place, AAC)
Alabama Crimson Tide: 12-1 (1st place, SEC West)
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Cincinnati Bearcats vs Alabama Crimson Tide Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Cincinnati Bearcats: won at home on Dec. 4 against the Houston Cougars 35-20.
Alabama Crimson Tide: won on a neutral site on Dec. 4 against the Georgia Bulldogs 41-24.
Cincinnati Bearcats Analysis
Cincinnati is coming into this college football playoff semi-final game with a 13-0 record overall and they will be playing their first neutral site game of the season in this game. They did not lose a game all season and are coming into this one on that 13 game winning streak. Their last win was against Houston in the AAC Title game which they won and booked their spot in the college football playoffs at number 4 in the nation on the AP Poll. In their last game against Houston, Desmond Ridder completed 11/17 passes for 190 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jerome Ford had a very nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 187 yards and 2 touchdowns on 18 carries. Alec Pierce led the receivers with 65 yards and 1 touchdown on 2 receptions while Josh Whyle had 35 yards on 3 receptions. Tyler Scott and Leonard Taylor both caught the other touchdown passes in that one with 1 each. Ty Van Fossen led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 4 assisted ones. Joel Dublanko led the defense in sacks in that game with 2 and he also came up with the only interception for them in that one. They have scored 510 points in their 13 games this season averaging 39.2 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 209 points against them allowing 16.1 PPG. Their offense is averaging 179.8 YPG while their defense is allowing 304.9 YPG.
Alabama Crimson Tide Analysis
Alabama is coming into this college football playoff semi-final game with a 12-1 record overall and they are 2-0 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. Alabama lost 1 game all season against the Texas A&M Aggies but they have gone on a 7 game winning streak since then and are coming off of a win against Georgia in the SEC Title game which they won cementing their spot in the college football playoffs as number 1 in the nation. In their last game against Georgia, Bryce Young completed 26/44 passes for 421 yards and 3 touchdowns. Brian Robinson Jr. led the team in rushing with 55 yards on 16 carries while Young ran in 1 TD himself. Jameson Williams had a very nice day as he led the receivers with 184 yards and 2 touchdowns on 7 receptions while John Metchie was next on the team with 97 yards and 1 touchdown on 6 receptions. DeMarcco Hellams led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones. Will Anderson Jr., Dallas Turner, and Phidarian Mathis all recorded the only sacks in that game with 1 each while Hellams and Jordan Battle both came up with 1 interception each for them in that one. They have scored 553 points in their 13 games this season averaging 42.5 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 263 points against them allowing 20.2 PPG. Their offense is averaging 495 YPG while their defense is allowing 304.6 YPG.
Cincinnati vs Alabama Prediction
Cincinnati is coming into this Cotton Bowl as a 13.5 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Cincinnati has been a dominant team all season and finished their season undefeated. They have been scoring a lot of points this season and have been averaging around the same as Alabama on offense but Cincinnati's defense is much better. Alabama had a great season but they have not played well in every game and have struggled to win games by a lot or even pull away in some games. Alabama almost missed this game altogether if they did not come back against Auburn in the last minute of that game down a TD and then won it in OT. They put a lot of effort into beating Georgia in the title game and they could be due for a let down here as Cincinnati has been disrespected all season. Cincinnati has a good defense and will at least keep Alabama's offense at bay in this game keeping it close. The best bet to place in this game is on Cincinnati to cover the spread here.
Cincinnati Alabama Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, December 31, 2021 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Alabama 35 Cincinnati 28.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Cincinnati Bearcats: 6-10 O/U in a bowl game. 4-7 O/U in minor bowl games (played in December). 14-23 O/U in all games. 16-35 O/U when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 0-6 O/U as an underdog. 6-12 O/U after playing 3 straight conference games. 68-102 O/U in games played on turf. 3-10 O/U off 1 or more straight overs.
Alabama Crimson Tide: 3-6 O/U in minor bowl games (played in December). 32-51 O/U as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. 33-63 O/U after playing 3 straight conference games. 7-12 O/U off 1 or more straight overs. 18-41 O/U off 3 straight wins against conference rivals. 8-13 O/U after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.
Key Injuries
Cincinnati Bearcats: C. Smith (K) Ques Dec 31 - Undisclosed injury.
Alabama Crimson Tide: J. Jobe (DB) out for season - Foot injury. K. Koht (LB) Ques Dec 31 - Foot injury. J. Earle (WR) Ques Dec 31 - Undisclosed injury.
Notable Quotes
"The resounding statement is what we did on that football field. Nobody is going to call and ask us what we think. I don't think these guys can be denied that opportunity. It would be a shame." - Luke Fickell on his team’s chances of making it to the college football playoffs after a win against Houston in the AAC Championship game.
"You guys gave us a lot of positive rat poison. The rat poison you usually give us is fatal. But the rat poison you put out there this week was yummy." - Nick Saban on the build up to the SEC Championship game after his team’s win against Georgia.
Starting Lineups
Cincinnati Bearcats
WR Pierce, Alec
WR Scott, Tyler
WR Young Jr., Michael
TE Whyle, Josh
QB Ridder, Desmond
RB Ford, Jerome
Alabama Crimson Tide
WR Hall, Agiye
WR Williams, Jameson
WR Bolden, Slade
TE Latu, Cameron
QB Young, Bryce
RB Robinson Jr., Brian
Statistical Leaders
Cincinnati Bearcats
Passing: D. Ridder (3190)
Rushing: J. Ford (1238)
Receiving: A. Pierce (867)
Touchdowns: J. Ford (20)
Alabama Crimson Tide
Passing: B. Young (4322)
Rushing: B. Robinson Jr. (1064)
Receiving: J. Williams (1445)
Touchdowns: B. Robinson Jr. (16)
Coaches:
Cincinnati Bearcats: Luke Fickell (6th season)
Alabama Crimson Tide: Nick Saban (15th season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
