by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Apr 18, 2022
Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
Venue: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Where to watch: NBC Sports Chicago, Bally Sports Great Lakes
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Guardians -120, White Sox +100
BetMGM: Even
Caesars: Guardians -115, White Sox +105
Season record
White Sox: 6-3
Guardians: 4-5
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White Sox - Guardians preview and analysis
Certainly a good week for one of the best teams in the American League, and a bad weekend for a team where we still have zero idea what to make of them. Which means the former, the Chicago White Sox, should be in a good position when starting a four-game series against the Cleveland Guardians on Monday.
The White Sox are coming off a series victory over the Tampa Bay Rays despite losing the finale 6-3 in Chicago on Sunday. It was a rough day at the plate with Chicago mustering only three hits, and two of the runs coming on a hit-by-pitch and a passed ball.
Gavin Sheets drove in two of those runs, including a solo homer in the ninth. But that paled in comparison to starter Vince Velasquez in the first inning, giving up four runs on three singles, three walks and an error.
"That was the highlight of the day," Chicago manager Tony La Russa said. "He was really upset. He's a very conscientious guy, and he gutted it out. He gave us a great chance but we couldn't do enough offensively."
We can chalk this venture to an off day for the White Sox, who come into this season with lofty expectations and a very deep roster, batting and pitching. Velasquez is likely the weak link of that pitching rotation and there are going to be days like this. The hope for Chicago is that they will bounce back with Dallas Keuchel on the mound.
“I can pop off the mound. I like jumping off, I like communicating with my infield to see where they’re at, knowing that I can reach those balls,” Velasquez said. “But [it] kinda hit me in the palm a little bit. Didn’t have a full grip on it. What really kills me is knowing I have six walks in my last two starts. That’s not a good sign.”
But things could be worse: You could be getting torched by the San Francisco Giants over the weekend and show you have a long ways to go before you’re actually considered contenders. That’s where the Guardians find themselves at right now.
Cleveland was swept in a three-game set at home against the reigning NL West champions, losing 8-1 in the finale. Aaron Civale gave up three runs in four innings, but the offense that was seemingly scoring 10 runs a game during its four-game winning streak was held to just one run on six hits in the finale.
But the Guardians’ biggest problem, against one of the league’s best teams, was not the way of hitting the ball.
“We’re going to have to find a way to be better defensively,” Guardians manager Terry Francona said. “We need to be good defensively, and we made some mistakes and it cost us. So, hopefully we’ll work at getting better, because we need to.”
The Guardians will send ace Shane Bieber to the mound for his third start of the season, and he’s looking for his first decision. He’s gone to the fifth inning in both starts and is coming off three earned runs in 5.1 innings of work in Cincinnati last Tuesday.
Prediction
While the Guardians should feel good about sending Bieber to the mound, I question if the Guardians have enough pop to get back on track against the likes of Kuechel. The White Sox have the pop to get 5-6 runs on any given night, and if the Guardians fall behind, not even the great pitching of “Not Justin” will save them. White Sox win 6-3
Betting trends
White Sox are 11-30 the past three seasons as a road underdog of +100 or higher.
White Sox are 71-48 the past three seasons against division opponents.
Guardians are 45-22 as a home favorite of -110 or higher the past three seasons.
Projected lineup
White Sox:
Tim Anderson (R) SS
Luis Robert (R) CF
Jose Abreu (R) 1B
Yasmani Grandal (S) C
Eloy Jimenez (R) LF
Gavin Sheets (L) DH
Josh Harrison (R) 2B
Jake Burger (R) 3B
Adam Engel (R) RF
Dallas Keuchel (LHP) 1-0, 5.40 ERA
Tim Anderson (R) SS
Luis Robert (R) CF
Jose Abreu (R) 1B
Yasmani Grandal (S) C
Eloy Jimenez (R) LF
Gavin Sheets (L) DH
Josh Harrison (R) 2B
Jake Burger (R) 3B
Adam Engel (R) RF
Dallas Keuchel (LHP) 1-0, 5.40 ERA
Guardians:
Myles Straw (R) CF
Owen Miller (R) 2B
Jose Ramirez (S) DH
Franmil Reyes (R) RF
Amed Rosario (R) SS
Ernie Clement (R) 3B
Bobby Bradley (L) 1B
Oscar Mercado (R) LF
Austin Hedges (R) C
Shane Bieber (RHP) 0-0, 2.70 ERA
Myles Straw (R) CF
Owen Miller (R) 2B
Jose Ramirez (S) DH
Franmil Reyes (R) RF
Amed Rosario (R) SS
Ernie Clement (R) 3B
Bobby Bradley (L) 1B
Oscar Mercado (R) LF
Austin Hedges (R) C
Shane Bieber (RHP) 0-0, 2.70 ERA
Statistical leaders
White Sox:
Batting average: Tim Anderson -- .393
Hits: Tim Anderson -- 11
Home runs: Two tied -- 2
RBI: Eloy Jimenez -- 7
Wins: Two tied -- 2
Saves: Liam Hendriks -- 4
ERA: Michael Kopech -- 1.00
Guardians:
Batting average: Jose Ramirez -- .457
Hits: Jose Ramirez -- 16
Home runs: Two tied -- 3
RBI: Jose Ramirez -- 15
Wins: Four tied -- 1
Saves: N/A
ERA: Zach Plesac -- 1.64
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
