Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/16/2025

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA

Where to Watch:  PADRES.tv

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Cubs -105, Padres -115; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Cubs -105, Padres -115; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Cubs -105, Padres -115; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Chicago Cubs:  11-8 (1st place, NL Central)

San Diego Padres:  14-3 (1st place, NL West)

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Chicago Cubs:  6-4 last 10

San Diego Padres:  7-3 last 10

The Cubs are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with an 11-8 record overall and have a road record of 7-4. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Padres on Wednesday with the 2nd game still to be played on Tuesday. The Padres won the series opener on Monday. Their offense ranks 3rd in the MLB with a .788 OPS. Shota Imanaga is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Matthew Boyd is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 ER, 1 HR, and 3 BB with 7 Ks on 4 hits through 6 IP against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Padres are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Colorado Rockies 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 14-3 record overall and have a home record of 11-0. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Cubs on Wednesday with the 2nd game still to be played on Tuesday. The Padres won the 1st game of this series on Monday. Their offense ranks 4th in the MLB with a .785 OPS. Randy Vásquez is their starting pitcher on Tuesday while Nick Pivetta is making his start in this game on Wednesday. He is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 BB with 10 strikeouts on 3 hits through 7 innings played against the Colorado Rockies.

The current betting odds have the Padres listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres have looked really good in their games this season with their 14-3 record overall which has them right at the top of their division with the best record in the entire MLB. They have also looked great in their own ballpark this year with their 11-0 home record. Meanwhile, the Cubs have looked good in their games this season with their 11-8 record overall which has them at the top of their division with a good start to the season. They have also been a good road team so far with their 7-4 road record. The Cubs have one of the best offenses in the MLB to start the season and they have looked good lately as they are 6-4 in their last 10 games, but the Padres are 7-3 in their last 10 games and their offense has been just as good. Both of these starters have been good this season too, but the Padres definitely have an advantage here since their pitching has been a lot better at home this season and they are still undefeated there. Pivetta is on the mound for them and he has been great this season with his team winning 2 of his 3 starts too. He also gave up no runs in his last start and will look to keep that going here at home. The Cubs have Boyd on the mound and he has had a great season too with his 1.59 ERA, but he did give up 3 earned runs in his last start which will get him into trouble against this offense, and his team hasn't really had much success with him either, losing 2 of his 3 starts. The Padres have been rolling in their games lately and they have been unstoppable at home so far. The best way to place a bet here is on the Padres to win this game. 

Cubs Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Wednesday, April 16, 2025 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Padres 4 Cubs 0.

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Chicago Cubs: 177-165 (+5.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 132-122 (+8.6 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 22-16 (+10 units) on the moneyline when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%). 8-2 OVER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .275 or better.

San Diego Padres: 35-33 (-9.3 units) on the moneyline against NL Central opponents. 65-72 (-10.6 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 74-66 (-15.9 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse. 30-24 OVER at home when the money line is +125 to -125.

Chicago Cubs:  J. Steele (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. R. Brasier (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Hip. V. Brujan (SS) Ten Day IL - Elbow. T. Miller (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Hip. J. Assad (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Oblique.

San Diego Padres:  B. Lockridge (RF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. J. Cronenworth (1B) Ten Day IL - Rib. M. Waldron (SP) Sixty Day IL - Oblique. J. Merrill (CF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. J. Brito (RP) Sixty Day IL - Forearm. B. Hoeing (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. S. Reynolds (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Foot. Y. Darvish (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“We’re going to get some more opinions on it. We're kind of dealing with the same thing we dealt with last year and, for that reason, I think Justin wants to make sure, and we want to make sure, that we get the right information moving forward. So, he’s going to get another opinion and then we’ll go from there.” - Craig Counsell on the injury to Justin Steele.

“Our play is equaling the crowd, the crowd is equaling our play -- I don’t know which way you want to look at it. You’re talking about a Monday night, and this place is jammed and rocking. It means a ton.” - Mike Shildt after his team’s win against the Cubs in their game on Monday.

Ian Happ (S) LF

Kyle Tucker (L) RF

Justin Turner (R) DH

Michael Busch (L) 1B

Dansby Swanson (R) SS

Nico Hoerner (R) 2B

Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) CF

Miguel Amaya (R) C

Matt Shaw (R) 3B

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Luis Arraez (L) 1B

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Gavin Sheets (L) DH

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Jose Iglesias (R) 2B

Jason Heyward (L) LF

Tyler Wade (L) CF

Martín Maldonado (R) C

Batting Average:  Carson Kelly (.417)

Hits:  Kyle Tucker (23)

Home Runs:  Kyle Tucker (5)

RBI:  Kyle Tucker (18)

Stolen Bases:  Pete Crow-Armstrong (7)

Wins:  Justin Steele (3)

Saves:  Ryan Pressly (4)

ERA:  Ethan Roberts (0.00)

Batting Average:  Jackson Merrill (.378)

Hits:  Fernando Tatis (22)

Home Runs:  Fernando Tatis (6)

RBI:  Fernando Tatis (12)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (6)

Wins:  Michael King (3)

Saves:  Robert Suarez (7)

ERA:  Wandy Peralta (0.00)

Managers:

Chicago Cubs: Craig Counsell (2nd season)

San Diego Padres: Mike Shildt (2nd season)