Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 6/21/2022

Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

Venue: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA

Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, AT&T SportsNet-Pittsburgh

DraftKings: Pirates -150, Cubs +130

BetMGM: Pirates -160, Cubs +135

Caesars: Pirates -149, Cubs +130

Cubs: 25-42

Pirates: 27-39

I guess when trying to figure out how the first game of the Chicago Cubs-Pittsburgh Pirates series would go on Monday, I forgot one important rule: Never discount the importance of a top prospect making his MLB debut. Because that's exactly what happened on Monday with Oneil Cruz, the 6-foot-7 budding star making his highly-anticipated season debut and getting two hits and driving in four RBIs in the Pirates' 12-1 win over the Cubs on Monday.

Sure, the Cubs can try and bounce back in Game 2 on Tuesday, but clearly the win on Sunday from the Pirates over the San Francisco Giants has catapulted them with enough of momentum to rally for another big victory on Monday. But not without Cruz, the shortstop, making an impact in his very first game. Like, for example, he threw out a Willson Contreras groundball 96.7 miles per hour to get him out. It's insane.

“The way it hangs in the air is a little bit different,” said first baseman Michael Chavis, who received the throw. “The same way [with] a guy that's pitching, a guy that throws really hard, it hangs up on it a little more, the ride or whatever you want to call it. It's pretty much the same thing where I thought it was going to go down, and it just hung.”

Cruz, batting sixth, went 2-for-5 in his debut, and the Pirates had the game well in hand by the third inning. They led 7-0 once Cruz had a bases-clearing double to put it out of reach early. Cruz added another RBI in the bottom of the seventh, part of a five-run inning, for a dominant end to the game.

And somehow lost in all of that shuffle, JT Brubaker won his first start in eight decisions by throwing six innings, giving up just five hits and striking out five. He did way more than his counterpart, Caleb Killian, lasting just 2.1 innings and giving up five runs while walking five.

“Guy’s unreal,” raved outfielder Bligh Madris prior to the game. “He has tools that come around once every 100 years. He’s special, to say the least. He can do things with the bat. He can hit pitches out of the ballpark that some guys are lucky to get out of the infield. It’s unbelievable being able to see what he can do.”

“Guy’s unreal,” raved outfielder Bligh Madris prior to the game. “He has tools that come around once every 100 years. He’s special, to say the least. He can do things with the bat. He can hit pitches out of the ballpark that some guys are lucky to get out of the infield. It’s unbelievable being able to see what he can do.”

Madris was also incredible in his MLOB debut, going 3-for-4 with two RBI batting right below Cruz in the seven spot. Bryan Reynolds even added two hits as he creeps his average back to normal status for him.

Normally when you'd look at a 12-1 loss, the losing team would struggle to get on the bases. Not the Cubs; they actually had 10 hits on this day, with Rafael Ortega and Ian Happ registering two each. Usually that's a good sign, but not if they can't bring in any home. But Killian falling behind that early did not help matters.

"He didn't repeat throwing balls in the zone consistently," Chicago manager David Ross said. "Just a lot of noncompetitive pitches and he got behind in the count. It was just a hard 2 2/3 innings for him."

The pitching matchup will favor Pittsburgh again, at least in a broader lens, with Matt Swarmer (1-2, 5.23 ERA) taking the mound for the road team and facing Roansy Contreras (1-1, 3.06 ERA).

The youth movement has begun in Pittsburgh, and I'm not going to make the same mistake this time around. We can't expect the Pirates bats to continue to rake like this, but I think we're clear in saying the Cubs will be struggling uphill the rest of the way, with the Pirates finishing things off in fine manner. Pirates win 6-2

Cubs are 13-16 against division opponents this season.

Cubs are 17-30 against right-handed starters this season.

Pirates are 14-19 at home this season.

Pirates are 1-9 when playing on Tuesday this season.

Pirates are 67-107 in night games the past three seasons.

Cubs:
Christopher Morel (R) CF
Willson Contreras (R) DH
Ian Happ (S) LF
Jonathan Villar (S) 2B
Patrick Wisdom (R) 3B
Nico Hoerner (R) SS
Yan Gomes (R) C
Jason Heyward (L) RF
Alfonso Rivas (L) 1B
SP - Matt Swarmer

Pirates:
Ke'Bryan Hayes (R) 3B
Bryan Reynolds (S) CF
Jack Suwinski (L) LF
Daniel Vogelbach (L) DH
Michael Chavis (R) 1B
Oneil Cruz (L) SS
Bligh Madris (L) RF
Tyler Heineman (S) C
Hoy Park (L) 2B
SP - Roansy Contreras

Batting average: Ian Happ -- .290

Home runs: Wilson Contreras -- 12

RBI: Frank Schwindel -- 33

Wins: Keegan Thompson -- 6

ERA: Kyle Hendricks -- 5.43

Batting average: Ke'Bryan Hayes -- .265

Home runs: Jack Suwinski -- 11

RBI: Michael Chavis -- 22

Wins: Dillon Peters -- 4

ERA: JT Brubaker -- 4.11