by Rod Pearson
Thursday, May 18, 2023
Game Time: 7:05 pm ET, Friday, May 19, 2023
Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Where to Watch: NBCS-PH
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Cubs +115, Phillies -135; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Cubs +115, Phillies -135; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Cubs +115, Phillies -135; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Season Record
Chicago Cubs: 19-24 (4th place, NL Central)
Philadelphia Phillies: 20-23 (4th place, NL East)
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Recent Form
Chicago Cubs: 2-8 last 10
Philadelphia Phillies: 5-5 last 10
Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Preview and Analysis
The Cubs are entering this game on a 5 game losing streak. They enter this game with a 19-24 record overall and have a road record of 8-13. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Phillies on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .771 OPS. Drew Smyly was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Marcus Stroman is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 2-4 with a 3.24 ERA this season. His team lost their last 5 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 6 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 3 Ks on 7 hits through 2.2 IP against the Minnesota Twins.
The Phillies are entering this game on a 4 game losing streak. They enter this game with a 20-23 record overall and have a home record of 11-7. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Cubs on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 11th in the MLB with a .743 OPS. Taijuan Walker is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Ranger Suárez is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA this season. His team won their only game this season with him making an appearance. In his last start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 BB with 4 strikeouts on 7 hits through 4 innings played against the Colorado Rockies.
Cubs vs Phillies Prediction
The current betting odds have the Cubs listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Cubs haven't been great this year but they do have some really good pitching and they have another stud starter on the mound here in Stroman. Stroman has pitched very well this season going deep into games without giving up many runs and he has always given the Cubs a chance to win the game in his starts. The Cubs have been in a slump lately with a lot of losses but their offense was a bit better in their last series, including their very last game, and they could carry over those hot bats into this game as they look to bounce back and break out of their slump. The Phillies haven't been great this season either and their pitching has been just as bad as it was last season. They have been giving up a lot of runs with their bullpen and Ranger Suarez is starting here and he hasn't really had many starts this season to get into a good groove yet, not pitching well in his first few starts either. The Cubs offense can take advantage of the Phillies bad pitching in this game and Stroman will be able to hang onto any tight lead they get so this is a great spot for the Cubs to finally bounce back and get a win. The best way to place a bet here is on the Cubs to win this game.
Cubs Phillies Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Friday, May 19, 2023 (7:05 pm ET start time) is Cubs 5 Phillies 2.
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MLB Betting Trends
Chicago Cubs: 6-15 (-9.8 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 8-23 (-13.9 units) on the moneyline after 5 or more consecutive losses. 8-2 UNDER against NL East opponents. 35-22 UNDER as a road underdog of +125 to +175.
Philadelphia Phillies: 111-77 (+10.4 units) on the moneyline in home games. 72-47 (+11.2 units) on the moneyline at home when the total is 7 to 8.5. 10-5 UNDER as a home favorite of -110 or higher. 11-6 UNDER after 4 or more consecutive losses.
Key Injuries
Chicago Cubs: C. Bellinger (CF) Ques Fri - Knee. N. Hoerner (SS) Prob Fri - Hamstring. A. Sampson (SP) Out indefinitely - Knee. B. Boxberger (RP) Out indefinitely - Forearm. K. Hendricks (SP) Late May - Shoulder. C. Heuer (RP) Early June - Elbow. E. Roberts (RP) out for season - Elbow.
Philadelphia Phillies: J. Alvarado (RP) Early June - Elbow. C. Pache (LF) Mid June - Knee. D. Hall (1B) Mid June - Thumb. N. Song (SP) Out indefinitely - Back. R. Marchan (C) Out indefinitely - Hand. R. Hoskins (1B) out for season - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“We’ve got to win that game. We’ve got to pitch better on the back end. Offense did enough tonight, played good defense overall. We’ve got to cash that win in.” - David Ross after his team’s loss against the Astros in their game on Wednesday.
“I loved the fight in the guys. We got the winning run to the plate in the ninth after giving up three in the bottom of the eighth. They keep fighting. I’m proud of them for that.” - Rob Thomson after his team’s loss against the Giants in their game on Wednesday.
Starting Lineups
Chicago Cubs
Christopher Morel (R) CF
Dansby Swanson (R) SS
Ian Happ (S) LF
Seiya Suzuki (R) RF
Patrick Wisdom (R) 3B
Matt Mervis (L) 1B
Trey Mancini (R) DH
Yan Gomes (R) C
Miles Mastrobuoni (L) 2B
Philadelphia Phillies
Bryson Stott (L) 2B
Trea Turner (R) SS
Bryce Harper (L) DH
Nick Castellanos (R) RF
Kyle Schwarber (L) LF
J.T. Realmuto (R) C
Alec Bohm (R) 3B
Brandon Marsh (L) CF
Kody Clemens (L) 1B
Statistical Leaders
Chicago Cubs
Batting Average: Christopher Morel (.371)
Hits: Ian Happ (46)
Home Runs: Patrick Wisdom (12)
RBI: Patrick Wisdom (23)
Stolen Bases: Nico Hoerner (12)
Wins: Justin Steele (6)
Saves: Brad Boxberger (2)
ERA: Jeremiah Estrada (0.00)
Philadelphia Phillies
Batting Average: Cristian Pache (.360)
Hits: Nick Castellanos (51)
Home Runs: Kyle Schwarber (10)
RBI: Alec Bohm (32)
Stolen Bases: J.T. Realmuto (7)
Wins: Aaron Nola (3)
Saves: Jose Alvarado (5)
ERA: Jeff Hoffman (0.00)
Managers:
Chicago Cubs: David Ross (4th season)
Philadelphia Phillies: Rob Thomson (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
