by Rod Pearson
Sunday, Aug 06, 2023
Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Monday, August 7, 2023
Venue: Citi Field, Queens, NY
Where to Watch: MLB Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Moneyline odds: Cubs +110, Mets -130; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Bet365: Moneyline odds: Cubs +110, Mets -130; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
BetMGM: Moneyline odds: Cubs +110, Mets -130; Over/Under: 8.5 runs
Season Record
Chicago Cubs: 57-54 (3rd place, NL Central)
New York Mets: 50-60 (4th place, NL East)
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Recent Form
Chicago Cubs: 7-3 last 10
New York Mets: 3-7 last 10
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Preview and Analysis
The Cubs entered their last series on a 3 game winning streak and won their 4-game series against the Cincinnati Reds 3-1. They enter this game with a 57-54 record overall and have a road record of 26-26. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Mets on Monday with the series finale of their series against the Atlanta Braves still to be played on Sunday. They also lost the series opener of that series on Friday but won the 2nd game on Saturday. Their offense ranks 8th in the MLB with a .756 OPS. Justin Steele is their starting pitcher on Sunday while Drew Smyly is making his start in this game on Monday. He is 8-7 with a 4.71 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 5 ER, 3 HR, and 0 BB with 7 Ks on 6 hits through 4.2 IP against the Cincinnati Reds.
The Mets entered their last series on a 3 game losing streak and got swept 3-0 in their 3-game series against the Kansas City Royals. They enter this game with a 50-60 record overall and have a home record of 26-23. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Cubs on Monday with the 3rd game of their series against the Baltimore Orioles still to be played on Sunday. They also lost the 1st game and the 2nd game of that series on Friday and Saturday. Their offense ranks 20th in the MLB with a .716 OPS. José Quintana is their starting pitcher on Sunday while rookie pitcher Kodai Senga is making his start in this game on Monday. He is 7-6 with a 3.25 ERA this season. His team won 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 0 homers, and 2 BB with 6 strikeouts on 11 hits through 5.2 innings played against the Kansas City Royals.
Cubs vs Mets Prediction
The current betting odds have the Mets listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Mets have been terrible this season with their losing record and an offense that hasn't been great but they are in desperate need of a win here to snap out of their funk and they will be looking to bounce back now that they are back at home. The Cubs have been really hot lately with their offense putting up a ton of runs in their games but their pitching hasn't been great and they still have a record just barely over .500 this season. They haven't been as good in their road games either so the Mets can take advantage of that here, especially since they have the better pitching matchup too. The Mets are going with Senga in this game and he has been pitching really well lately. He has been a much better starter in their home games this season and hasn't been giving up many runs lately either. Meanwhile, the Cubs have Smyly on the mound here and lately he has been struggling with giving up a ton more runs in his starts. He gave up 5 runs in his last start too and hasn't been pitching well in their road games either. The Mets don't have a great offense but they will get their scoring opportunities in this game and will be able to capitalize on them at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mets to win this game.
Cubs Mets Prediction: Our MLB Pick for Monday, August 7, 2023 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Mets 4 Cubs 2.
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MLB Betting Trends
Chicago Cubs: 34-30 (+5.2 units) on the moneyline when the total is 8.5 to 10. 19-12 (+7.1 units) on the moneyline in the second half of the season. 14-8 UNDER on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5. DREW SMYLY is 8-3 UNDER in August games.
New York Mets: 50-60 (-27.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 18-21 (-12.8 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -125 to -175. 26-14 UNDER as a home favorite of -110 or higher. 32-15 UNDER in home games.
Key Injuries
Chicago Cubs: M. Stroman (SP) Mid Aug - Hip. N. Burdi (RP) Mid Aug - Appendix. B. Boxberger (RP) Mid Aug - Forearm. B. Hughes (RP) out for season - Knee. C. Heuer (RP) out for season - Elbow. E. Roberts (RP) out for season - Elbow.
New York Mets: S. Coonrod (RP) Mid Aug - Back. T. Locastro (CF) Mid Aug - Thumb. E. Hernandez (SP) Out indefinitely - Pectoral. L. Guillorme (2B) Mid Sept - Ankle. E. Uceta (RP) Mid Aug - Knee. B. Montes de Oca (SP) out for season - Elbow. E. Diaz (RP) out for season - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“It’s a nice win and it’s a good team over there, but we have a long way to go. I thought in circumstances with Assad being short and the conditions being awful, to come out and put up some offense on the board ... it was a grinder.” - David Ross after his team’s win against the Braves in their game on Saturday.
“When we're on top of our game, we can give people trouble. We haven't been.” - Buck Showalter after his team’s loss against the Orioles in their game on Saturday.
Starting Lineups
Chicago Cubs
Mike Tauchman (L) RF
Nico Hoerner (R) 2B
Ian Happ (S) LF
Cody Bellinger (L) CF
Dansby Swanson (R) SS
Christopher Morel (R) DH
Jeimer Candelario (S) 1B
Yan Gomes (R) C
Nick Madrigal (R) 3B
New York Mets
Brandon Nimmo (L) CF
Francisco Lindor (S) SS
Jeff McNeil (L) 2B
Pete Alonso (R) 1B
Daniel Vogelbach (L) DH
Starling Marte (R) RF
Brett Baty (L) 3B
Francisco Alvarez (R) C
DJ Stewart (L) LF
Statistical Leaders
Chicago Cubs
Batting Average: Jeimer Candelario (.579)
Hits: Nico Hoerner (119)
Home Runs: Patrick Wisdom (19)
RBI: Nico Hoerner (58)
Stolen Bases: Nico Hoerner (26)
Wins: Justin Steele (12)
Saves: Adbert Alzolay (13)
ERA: Jose Cuas (0.00)
New York Mets
Batting Average: Michael Perez (.571)
Hits: Brandon Nimmo (104)
Home Runs: Pete Alonso (31)
RBI: Pete Alonso (77)
Stolen Bases: Starling Marte (24)
Wins: Kodai Senga (7)
Saves: David Robertson (14)
ERA: Edwin Uceta (0.00)
Managers:
Chicago Cubs: David Ross (4th season)
New York Mets: Buck Showalter (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
