Game Time:  2:10 pm ET, Sunday, May 1st, 2022 

Venue: American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Where to Watch: Bally Sports Wisconsin ** Marquee Sports Network ** MLB Extra Innings

DraftKings: Moneyline: Cubs +170, Brewers -200; O/U 7

Caesars: Moneyline:  Cubs +180, Brewers -208; O/U 7

PointsBet: Moneyline:  N/A

Cubs: 8-12, 3rd place American League Central

Brewers: 14-7, 1st place American League Central

 

An American League Central matchup that brings out the best in both clubs.  This series kicked off last night.  Both teams are  well rested and ready for the diamond.  The results are not in yet, but the Cubs have an offensive advantage while the Brewers have a pitching advantage.  We have rolled this over as the battle of hot dogs vs Brauts… but it is more.  These are two cities that share a geographical area and therefore a pride that causes the fans to lean in a bit more. Because of the division rivalry all these games are very important no matter how early in the season the players feel it is.  

 

The Chicago Cubs have won only 3 of their last ten games.  This stretch is why they have landed in the middle of what is already an afterthought of a Division.  They went Over 4 times and Under 6 times. They lost game 1 of this series vs the Brewers.  They went 1-2 against the Atlanta Braves, 1-3 against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and 1-2 against the Tampa Bay Rays during that stretch.  A big problem with the Cubs is that the rotation really only has RHP Kyle Hendricks to brag about… Kyle won two of the three games while Marcus Stroman got the other.  Home run leader LF Seiya Suzuki has only 4… but is hitting .311, with 14 RBIs, and 1 SB.  He could use some help from the pitchers. 

 

The Milwaukee Brewers have won 8 of their last 10 games.  They won Game 1 of this series vs the Cubs.  They took 3-0 off of the Pittsburgh Pirates, lost a loner to the San Francisco Giants, took 2-1 off of the Philadelphia Phillies, and swept the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-0 once again.  This team is apparently geared toward always beating the lousy Pittsburgh Pirates.  That is indicative of how little we know in these matchups this early in the season.  Early MLB betting is all about pitching matchups… as the season goes on we can focus on which teams are tire fires and which teams are fluffy cotton candy.  Brewers home run leader SS Willy Adames has only 4 dingers also… with 12 RBIs and 1 SB.  Those numbers look similar, but Willy gets lots more help from his pitchers.

 

The Cubs dropped the first game of the series to the Brewers and now we are worrying about betting on the third.  I have recommended the second game  for the Cubs based on the pitching matchup… where will the third land?

 

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The Cubs are 3rd in runs scored with 4.84 per game, 1st in batting average with .260, and 1st in OBP with .344.  All that offense is intoxicatingly wonderful… it could sway a bet if not a bet for the over.

 

The Brewers are 20th in runs scored with 3.70, 25th in batting average with .209, and 24th in OBP with .282.  Those numbers stink from here! Yet the Brewers are a winning club.

 

The Cubs are 22nd in ERA with 4.01, 21st in WHIP with 1.29… and only 24th in quality starts… That is why.  They get lots of runs… but give up the losses from the mound.

The Brewers are 10th in ERA with 3.27, 15th in WHIP with 1.20, and 3rd in quality starts.  That makes sense… the Brewers get more out of their starters and give up less runs from their relievers… They are in desperate need of run support…. But the pitching holds up well.

 

Our prediction for Sunday May 1st is...  Brewers 3 - Cubs 2

 

The Brewers stake claim to the series in Game 3 with better pitching.  There is also a strong reason to bet the UNDER.  The offensive weakness of the Brewers tied with most likely their best pitcher on the mound will lead to a low scoring outing.

 

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The Chicago Cubs are 8 Over, 20 Under (+11 Units) in road/day games the last 2 seasons.

Milwaukee is 87-52 (+20 Units) against the money line against right handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Milwaukee is 63-28 (+26.7 Units) against the money line against a team with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse the last 2 seasons.

 

Cubs: LF Clint Frazier (appendix) Out ** SS Adrelton Simmons (shoulder) Out

Brewers: 2B Luis Urias (quad) Out ** C Pedro Severino (suspended) Out

Cubs: RHP Marcus Stroman, 0-3, 6.98 ERA, 17 strikeouts in 19 innings pitched.  Marcus Stroman is a tiny guy.  5’7” 180… He has been at best an average pitcher since his debut in 2014.  If his numbers stay this bad he will be gone from the bigs soon.  It’s just that simple, a former fist round pick who has turned 30 is supposed to be developed.  To have appeared in 4 games on the season while grabbing 3 losses and throwing a 6.98 ERA… if he can’t work as a middle reliever soon?… it’s most likely all over.

Brewers: Corbin Burnes 1-0, 1.75 ERA, 33 strikeouts in 25 innings pitched.  0.74 WHIP. Corbin is pitching great.  He is 24-11 in the W/L column for his career… but has mostly been used as a reliever.  In the entirety he has 460 strikeouts in 339.1 innings pitched… a wicked pace.  He will have to cut the mullet when the Yankees scoop him up.

Cubs: DH Rafael Ortega, RF Seiya Suzuki, LF Ian Happ, C Wilson Contreras, 2B JOnathan Villar, 1B Alfonso Rivas, CF Jason Heyward, 3B Patrick Wisdom, SS Nico Hoerner

Brewers: SS Willy Adames, RF Hunter Renfroe, 1B Keston Hiura, LF Tyrone Taylor, CF Lorenzo Cain, 3B Michael Brosseau, 3B Jace Peterson, 2B Kolten Wong, C Alex Jackson

 

Cubs: David Ross

Brewers: Craig Counsell

Cloudy.  17 mph winds.  Northeastern Illinois is under a tornado watch… but the actual city of Chicago is relatively safe because of their direct location along the great lake shoreline.  Still games can be called for all sorts of reasons.