Game Time:  7:00 pm ET, Saturday, April 30th, 2022 

Venue: American Family Field, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Where to Watch: Bally Sports Wisconsin ** Marquee Sports Network ** MLB Extra Innings

DraftKings: Moneyline: Cubs +100, Brewers -149; O/U 8

Caesars: Moneyline:  Cubs +140, Brewers -159; O/U 8

PointsBet: Moneyline:  N/A

Cubs: 8-11, 3rd place American League Central

Brewers: 13-7, 1st place American League Central

 

An American League Central matchup that brings out the best in both clubs.  Chicago and Milwaukee are essentially twin cities.  Fat people, cold winters, lakes not oceans.  It is a battle of hot dogs vs Brats, bad Lite beer vs worse Lite beer.  Everyone in every seat loves their city… no one in any seat has any reason why?... It’s middle America at it’s most… Baseball.  These cousins share cold weather horror stories and long for the warmth of summer and the dusty slides on the diamond.  They cheer for mascots and use coupons at the vendor windows.  Happy people who will not even notice when we sneak in and land a few wins on the moneyline at their team’s expense. Let’s look at the numbers and make some money, but don’t upset the locals.

 

The Chicago Cubs have won only 3 of their last ten games.  This stretch is why they have landed in the middle of what is already an afterthought of a Division.  They went Over 4 times and Under 6 times. The Cubs went 1-2 against the Atlanta Braves, 1-3 against the Pittsburgh Pirates, and 1-2 against the Tampa Bay Rays during that stretch.  A big problem with the Cibs is that the rotation really only has RHP Kyle Hendricks to brag about… Kyle won two of the three games while Marcus Stroman got the other.  Home run leader LF Seiya Suzuki has only 4… but is hitting .311, with 14 RBIs, and 1 SB.  He could use some help from the pitchers. 

 

The Milwaukee Brewers have won 7 of their last 10 games.  They have been cooking with gas.  They took 3-0 off of the Pittsburgh Pirates, lost a loner to the San Francisco Giants, took 2-1 off of the Philadelphia Phillies, and swept the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-0 once again.  This team is apparently geared toward always beating the lousy Pittsburgh Pirates.  That is indicative of how little we know in these matchups this early in the season.  Early MLB betting is all about pitching matchups… as the season goes on we can focus on which teams are tire fires and which teams are fluffy cotton candy.  Brewers home run leader SS Willy Adames has only 4 dingers also… with 12 RBIs and 1 SB.  Those numbers look similar, but Willy gets lots more help from his pitchers.

 

The thing to remember is we are betting/recommending the second game of this series… They will play tonight and the results are not in… The second matchup however has a more favorable pitching battle for one side… Let’s check those numbers and then make our bets.

 

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The Cubs are 3rd in runs scored with 4.84 per game, 1st in batting average with .260, and 1st in OBP with .344.  All that offense is intoxicatingly wonderful… it could sway a bet if not a bet for the over.

 

The Brewers are 20th in runs scored with 3.70, 25th in batting average with .209, and 24th in OBP with .282.  Those numbers stink from here! Yet the Brewers are a winning club.

 

The Cubs are 22nd in ERA with 4.01, 21st in WHIP with 1.29… and only 24th in quality starts… That is why.  They get lots of runs… but give up the losses from the mound.

The Brewers are 10th in ERA with 3.27, 15th in WHIP with 1.20, and 3rd in quality starts.  That makes sense… the Brewers get more out of their starters and give up less runs from their relievers… voila victory.  But since the Brewers have built these numbers off of the Pittsburgh Pirates for the most part… they are not really real.  It’s a classic matchup of Cubs offense vs Brewers defense… plus both teams get a look at each other the night before (friday night).

 

Our prediction for Saturday April 30th is...  Cubs 5 - Brewers 2

 

The Cubs will take this one.  It is an offense vs defense matchup and the pitchers are both 26 year olds trying to prove themselves… Plus the Brewers have spent 6 of their last ten games facing the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates… will they even be ready for a team that can get some hits?

 

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The Chicago Cubs are 7 Over, 20 Under as a road underdog of +125 to +175 the last 2 seasons.

Milwaukee is 81-47 (+20.4 Units) against the money line when the total is set 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Milwaukee is 21-11 (+7.8 Units) against the Chicago Cubs the last 3 seasons.

 

Cubs: LF Clint Frazier (appendix) Out ** SS Adrelton Simmons (shoulder) Out

Brewers: 2B Luis Urias (quad) Out ** C Pedro Severino (suspended) Out

Cubs: LHP Justin Steele, 1-2, 5.40 ERA, 3 strikeouts in 15 innings pitched.  Justin is a young guy.  His debut came in April of 2021.. Making his career numbers no different from those lousy ones you see from this season. He loses more than he wins his career ERA is 4.50… If it stays that way another 6 months he will be in the minors for “some work”.

Brewers: LHP Eric Lauer, 1-0, 2.20 ERA, 23 strikeouts in 16 innings pitched. “Gomer” as his teammates call him… throws with Heat.  The small sample size of this season is a major improvement over his short career numbers.

Both pitchers are 26… both have near .500 career W/L records.  The Cubs pitcher doesn't have nearly as many pitches as the Brewers pitcher.  

 

Cubs: DH Rafael Ortega, RF Seiya Suzuki, LF Ian Happ, C Wilson Contreras, 2B JOnathan Villar, 1B Alfonso Rivas, CF Jason Heyward, 3B Patrick Wisdom, SS Nico Hoerner

Brewers: SS Willy Adames, RF Hunter Renfroe, 1B Keston Hiura, LF Tyrone Taylor, CF Lorenzo Cain, 3B Michael Brosseau, 3B Jace Peterson, 2B Kolten Wong, C Alex Jackson

 

Cubs: David Ross

Brewers: Craig Counsell

Rainy, gross.  50* high winds at 22 mph.  May even experience delays with the 100% rain all day forecast.  **Tip… never eat the hot dogs at a stadium… the game after a rain out… They were cooked yesterday.