Chicago Bulls vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 04/27/2022

by James Q

Tuesday, Apr 26, 2022

Chicago Bulls vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 04/27/2022


Game Time: 7:30 PM ET, Wednesday, April 27th, 2022 
Venue:  Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 
Where to Watch: TNT

Opening NBA Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Bucks -12; O/U 218
Fanduel:  Bucks -12; O/U 217.5
BetMGM: Bucks -12.5; O/U 217.5

NBA Standings

Bulls: 1-3 first round playoff matchup; Elimination game
Bucks: 3-1 first round playoff matchup; Elimination game

An NBA Eastern Conference matchup between the 6th Seed and the 3rd Seed.  It is way too early for an early Christmas present.. Way too late for my birthday…. So why are the Sportsbooks giving me such an extravagant present.  Why are they offering to put $1000 dollars in my hand?  This series has reached an elimination game for the plucky Chicago Bulls… the team that played like a top 2 team in the East for most of the season… until the injury bug bogged them down at the end.  PG Lonzo Ball, SG/PG Alex Caruso, SF Patrick Williams, SG Zach LaVine… they all took their turn (Williams was out for 95% of the possible games this season…. On the injury list…  And here they are in the First Round NBA Playoffs and Ball, Caruso, and LaVine will miss the elimination game against a Milwaukee team that has one of the two best players in all of basketball (Denver has the other).  LaVine will miss because of a covid test, Caruso will miss because of a concussion, Ball will miss because he is on the shelf until next year with a knee injury.  That means that backup rookie  PG Ayo Dosunmu and backup SG/SF Coby White will play heavy minutes.   The Milwaukee Bucks on the other hand are missing SF Khris Middleton.. It would be uncouth of me to point out that Middleton has been mostly invisible this season anyway while once again PF Giannis Atentokounmpo is doing all the work.  Truth is Bucks guards Wesley Matthews, Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, and Pat Connaughton will face very little experienced competition as they send the Bulls packing.  The Bucks will have few worries as C Brook Lopez defends C Nikola Vucevic and SF Bobby Portis defends SF DeMar DeRozan. It seems improbable that the Bulls can stay on the floor.  However, is a 12 point spread the right place to put the number?  After All the Bucks won the last game by 24 points in Chicago’s United Center…. While this game will be played on the Bucks home floor…. Are we being fooled?  Does Vegas think Coby White is due for the  breakout 40 point game he has never had… after having 2 pts, 2rbs, and 2 asts in the last loss?...  Let’s check the numbers.

The Chicago Bulls are 1-3 in the series, but 2-2 ATS.  They covered the loss of the first game of the series when the spread was set at 10.5 points… but they had LaVine and Caruso then and were able to cover a 10 point spread.  In the last game the Bulls lost 119-95.  SF DeMar DeRozan had 23 points, PF Patrick Williams had 20 points, and SG Zach LaVine was the leading Bulls scorer with 24 points.  They didn’t get much of anything out of anyone else.  C Nikola Vucevic had a double double with 11 points and 10 rebounds but that is way too anemic a points total for the Bulls to have any success.  Now subtract LaVine’s 24 points…. And even if DeRozan goes off for 35-40 points… they are still at a deficit.

The Milwaukee Bucks are up 3-1 in the series, but 2-2 ATS.  In the latest win PF Giannis Antetokounmpo had 32 points, 17 rebounds, and 7 assists in just 35 minutes of play.  The Bulls have no answer for Giannis… few squads do… but the Bulls especially don’t.  SG Grayson Allen (and part time Rage Monster) poured in 27 points on 10 of 12 shooting and 6 of 7 from 3-point range. Grayson was only needed for 28 minutes. JRue Holiday did his regular thing and plowed through the weakened Bulls for 26 points in 37 minutes.  That game had lots of garbage time.  Giannis’s brother Thanasis even got to play 3 minutes!! A SG named Rayjon Tucker got to play 1.53 minutes for the Bucks.. Nothing happened while RT was on the floor… but still it’s always fun to learn a new name.  The Bucks cruised to the last win and will do it again over a Bulls team that is missing a guy who got them 24 points last time. 

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Chicago Bulls vs Milwaukee Bucks  Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

The Bulls are 47-39 on the season, but 44-41-1 ATS.  They have logged 40 Overs, 45 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 20-23 in road games.

The Bucks are 54-32 on the season, but 41-45 ATS.  They have notched 43 Overs and 43 Unders.  They are 28-15 in home games.

Offensive Analysis

The Bulls are 13th in scoring with 111.6 ppg, 28th in rebounds with 42.3, 10th in AST/TO ratio with 1.9.  On defense they rank 16th while allowing 112.0 ppg.  Those defensive numbers were built mostly with Caruso and LaVine playing and partially with Lonzo Ball playing.  They hold little sway with all three missing… and they are at best average with all three playing.

The Bucks are 3rd in scoring with 115.5 ppg, 2nd in rebounds with 46.7 per game, 15th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 19th while allowing 112.1 ppg. 

Chicago Bulls vs Milwaukee Bucks Game Prediction 


Our prediction for Wednesday, April 27th is….. Bucks 120 - Bulls 99

Bucks to Win and Cover.  See ya next season Bulls… it was fun.  The Bulls simply won’t have enough talent on the floor to stand up to last year’s champs.  

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NBA Betting Trends

Milwaukee is 4-15 ATS off back to back road wins.
Chicago is 5-2 ATS at Milwaukee the last 3 seasons.
Chicago is 2-11 ATS off a 20-point (or worse) defeat.
11 of 15 ( 6 of 7 in Milwaukee) games in this matchup have gone UNDER the total.

Injury List

Bulls: PG Zach LaVine (ill) Out ** SG Alex Caruso (concussed) Out ** PG Lonzo Ball (knee) Out 

Bucks: SF Khris Middleton (knee) Out 

Starting Lineups

Bulls: SF DeMar DeRozan, PF Patrick Williams, C Nikola Vucevic, SG Alex Caruso, PG Zach LaVine

Bucks: SF Bobby Portis, PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Brook Lopez, PG Jrue Holiday, SG Wesley Matthews

Coaches

Bulls: Billy Donovan
Bucks: Mike Budenholzer


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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