Chicago Bulls vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 01/21/2022

by James Q

Thursday, Jan 20, 2022

Chicago Bulls vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 01/21/2022

Game Time: 8:00 PM ET, Friday, January 21st, 2022 
Venue: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee Wisconsin
Where to Watch:  ESPN

Opening NBA Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings:  Spread: Buck -8.5; 
BetMGM:  Spread:  NL
VegasInsider:  Spread:  Bucks -9; O/U 226
WynnBet: Spread: Bucks -9; O/U 226

NBA Standings

Chicago: 28-15, 1st place Eastern Conference
Milwaukee: 28-19, 4th place Eatsern Conference

Finally we have a matchup between two of the block's biggest bullies.  These two contenders in the Eastern Conference are not only two of the best teams, but the center of a growing argument.  The argument goes like this…. When the Covid virus was taking lots of players off teams the NBA reacted quickly and postponed/canceled a couple of Bulls games (they were the first big hit)... but then the brain trust for the league met and decided they didn’t want the political fallout of canceling a week, month, or even a season…. So they let teams sign dozens of G-League call ups and simply let teams play.  Many were missing 2-3-4 integral players… some teams were missing their entire starting five at once?... Only not the Bulls.  The Bulls had the first big breakout of Covid, the Bulls had games canceled, and then the Bulls got their missing players back first and got to play the other teams that didn’t have the luxury of canceling games.  So, now the Bulls are in 1st place with 28 wins… and the Bucks are in 4th place with 28 wins??? The difference is the 2 games the Bulls were allowed to cancel instead of losing.  The argument is solid… if every team got to cancel two games… or if every team had to play while their players were out?… The Bucks might be in 1st and the Bulls might be in 4th…. With a myriad of variables hitting every other team in the league.  We can’t worry about that now… now we have to check the numbers and figure out which team is the best betting opportunity.

The Chicago Bulls were a newly minted great team before the Covid bloom.  The Bulls roster is the result of a front office doing the right thing…. Build around a star that you like and trade young players and picks for good players now… but at the same time you also have to sign free agents and draft well.  The Bulls did it.  Star SG Zach LaVine has an entire new posse around him and they are winning games with him, for him, and sometimes without him… The new guys PG Lonzo Ball, PG Alex Caruso, and SF DeMar DeRozan are all playing better basketball (Caruso is out but he was) now then they were at their oppressive and dreary former teams. Center Nikola Vucevic, who was the first chip brought in in last season’s mega trade, is playing great…. Just as he did before… Only now is for a good team.  The topic around Chicago is of course how much better can this first place team get when young athletic SF/PF Patrick Williams returns from a wrist injury that has sidelined him all season?... The time at the top of the standings has been tough… The Bulls are only 5 wins out of their last ten games.  They are clinging to that top spot and may lose it during this game.  They also are not a safe bet as they are 4-6 ATS during that stretch.

The Milwaukee Bucks don’t have a collection of surprisingly effective and good players…. No.  They have a once in a generation (NBA generations are 9.2 years) player in SF (yet positionless) Giannis Antetokounmpo.  Like every year Giannis is dragging the Bucks to contention and will have to trust those he dragged with him can be effective backup dancers when the big games come.  The Milwaukee Bucks have won only 5 out of their last 10 games.  Among the list of losses is one to the worst team in basketball the Detroit Pistons… the night after that game they beat the Brooklyn Nets when that team still had Kevin Durant.  To say this team is hot and cold is to hit it right on the head.  During that 5 of 10 stretch, the Bucks were also 5-5 ATS.   Giannis has been on the Bucks 9 seasons… he has won the NBA MVP, the NBA Finals, the Finals MVP, and made 6 all-star teams.  The team has consistently proved to him that they don’t know how to make a bunch of quality trades or draft picks to give him the help he needs.  Meanwhile a stone’s throw away, the Bulls were able to give Zach LaVine a max contract and surround him with top guys at every position?  It is only a matter of time before Giannis walks Kevin Durant style into the open arms of a new team… and the Bucks management will have to give a press conference where they say “We got him, Grayson Allen… and Bobby Portis?... you know?… We did our best.”


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Chicago Bulls vs Milwaukee Bucks Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

The Bulls are 28-15 on the season, but 25-18 ATS.  They have logged 22 Overs, 20 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 12-9 in road games.

The Bucks are 28-18 on the season, but 21-26 ATS.  They have notched 20 Overs and 27 Unders. They are 15-8 in home games.

Offensive Analysis

The Bulls are 9th in scoring with 111.2 ppg, 29th in rebounds with 42.5 per game, and 8th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8. The Bulls are shooting 2nd in FG%, 1st in 3PT%, and 4th in FT%.  They are 17th in defense while allowing 108.8 ppg from opponents. 

The Bucks are 4th in scoring with 112.0 ppg, 2nd in rebounds with 47.2 per game, and 19th in AST/TO 1.6.  17th in FG%, 7th in 3PT%, 12th in FT%. They are ranked 14th defensively while allowing 108.1 ppg.
 

Chicago Bulls vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction 

Our prediction for Friday, January 21st is….  Bulls 116 - Bucks 114

The Spread is Bucks -9 (right now).  The Bucks are favored by that much because PG Lonzo Ball just had surgery to repair a meniscus tear and will miss 4-6 weeks of action… Also Zach LaVine is still out with knee soreness… so naturally the Bucks get the nod…. I JUST DON’T BUY IT.  The Bulls will cover 9 points easy and I have them as a possible winner in this one, the Bucks lost to the Atlanta Hawks and the Toronto Raptors this week!  The Bulls trio of DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vicevic, and Coby White will handle the Bucks.   

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NBA Betting Trends


The Bulls are 2-3 ATS against Milwaukee at Milwaukee the last 3 seasons.
Chicago is 31-21 ATS against Milwaukee at Milwaukee since 1996.

Injury Report

Bulls: PG Lonzo Ball (knee) Out ** SG Zach LaVine (knee) Out

Bucks: SG Langston Galloway (ill) Out ** C Brook Lopez (back) Out

Starting Lineups

Bulls;  SF DeMar DeRozan, PF Alfonzo McKinnie, C Nikola Vucevic, SG Coby White, PG Ayo Dosunmu

Bucks:  SF Khris Middleton, PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Bobby Portis, PG George Hill, SG Grayson Allen

Statistical Leaders

Bulls
Points: DeMar DeRozan 25.7
Assists: Lonzo Ball 5.1
Rebounds: Nikola Vucevic 11.1
Steals: Alex Caruso 2.0
Blocks: Nikola Vucevic 1.2

Bucks
Points: Giannis Ant 28.6
Assists: Jrue Holiday 6.6
Rebounds: Giannis Ant 11.3
Steals: Jrue Holiday 1.6
Blocks: Brook Lopez 3.0

Coaches

Bulls: Billy Donovan.  2x college Championship coach
Bucks: Mike Budenholzer.  NBA Championship coach


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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