by Rod Pearson
Monday, Oct 02, 2023
Game Time: 8:15 pm ET, Thursday, October 5, 2023
Venue: FedEx Field, North Englewood, MD
Where to Watch: Amazon Prime Video
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Bears +6.5, Commanders -6.5; Over/Under: 45 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Bears +6.5, Commanders -6.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Bears +6.5, Commanders -6.5; Over/Under: 44 points
Season Record
Chicago Bears: 0-4 (4th place, NFC North)
Washington Commanders: 2-2 (3rd place, NFC East)
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Recent Form
Chicago Bears: lost their last game at home against the Denver Broncos 31-28.
Washington Commanders: lost their last game on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles in overtime 34-31.
Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders Preview and Analysis
The Bears are entering this game with a 0-4 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-2 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Denver Broncos 31-28. Justin Fields was the starting QB and he completed 28/35 passes for 355 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Khalil Herbert led the team in rushing yards with 103. D. J. Moore led the receivers with 131 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. T. J. Edwards led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Zacch Pickens and Dominique Robinson each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception in that game.
The Commanders are entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Philadelphia Eagles in OT 34-31. Sam Howell was the starting QB and he completed 29/41 passes for 290 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Brian Robinson Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 45 and 1 TD. Terry McLaurin led the receivers with 86 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Kamren Curl led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Kamren Curl, Jonathan Allen, and Chase Young each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception in that game.
Bears vs Commanders Prediction
The current betting odds have the Commanders listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Commanders are 2-2 this season but they have looked really good in their games. Their 2 losses came against the Bills and the Eagles who both look like some of the best teams in the NFL right now while they were able to beat up on worse teams in their 2 wins. Now they are at home against another bad team as the Bears are 0-4 this year and still looking for their 1st win of the season. The Bears looked a lot better in their last game but that was also at home and they still managed to blow their lead and lose to the Broncos who were also winless going into that game. The Bears have one of the worst teams in the NFL this season and they keep finding ways to lose games even when they are in it with a chance to win. The Commanders will take care of business at home on a short week against one of the worst teams in the league here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Commanders to cover the spread in this game.
Bears Commanders Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Thursday, October 5, 2023 (8:15 pm ET start time) is Commanders 21 Bears 13.
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NFL Betting Trends
Chicago Bears: 11-25 ATS in all games. 8-22 ATS as an underdog. 5-14 ATS in road games. 6-20 ATS against conference opponents. 69-38 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 16-8 UNDER after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games.
Washington Commanders: 21-14 ATS off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival. 9-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread. 23-14 UNDER in all games. 15-4 UNDER in home games. 8-2 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.
Key Injuries
Chicago Bears: J. Johnson (DB) Ques Thurs - Hamstring. E. Jackson (DB) Ques Thurs - Foot. J. Blackwell (DB) Out indefinitely - Hamstring. K. Kareem (DL) Out indefinitely - Hip. B. Jones (OL) Out indefinitely - Neck. K. Gordon (DB) Out indefinitely - Hand. D. Kramer (OL) Out indefinitely - Hand. T. Jenkins (OL) Out indefinitely - Leg.
Washington Commanders: C. Rodriguez Jr. (RB) Ques Thurs - Illness. D. Milne (WR) Out indefinitely - Groin. E. Obada (DE) Out indefinitely - Knee. P. Mathis (DT) Out indefinitely - Calf. K. Smith (TE) I-R - Undisclosed. B. Dillon (TE) I-R - Undisclosed. B. Daniels (OL) I-R - Shoulder. C. Brooks (DT) I-R - Undisclosed. T. Apke (CB) Out indefinitely - Shoulder. D. Bada (DT) I-R - Tricep. A. Rogers (TE) I-R - Achilles.
Notable Quotes
“I think we were in a rhythm, (offensive coordinator) Luke (Getsy) was dialing it up. Guys were protecting up front. Receivers were getting open. We were definitely in a rhythm. At the end of the day, we lost the game so it really doesn’t matter.” - Justin Fields after their loss against the Broncos in their last game.
“It was definitely a game I think we should have won and we were capable of winning it. We feel like we can play a lot better and that is a good thing. We were really close against a good team.” - Sam Howell after their loss against the Eagles in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Chicago Bears
WR Moore, DJ
WR St. Brown, Equanimeous
WR Mooney, Darnell
TE Kmet, Cole
QB Fields, Justin
RB Herbert, Khalil
FB Blasingame, Khari
Washington Commanders
WR McLaurin, Terry
WR Dotson, Jahan
WR Samuel, Curtis
TE THOMAS, LOGAN
QB Howell, Sam
RB Robinson Jr., Brian
Statistical Leaders
Chicago Bears
Passing: J. Fields (861)
Rushing: K. Herbert (196)
Receiving: D. Moore (301)
Touchdowns: D. Moore (2)
Washington Commanders
Passing: S. Howell (961)
Rushing: B. Robinson (261)
Receiving: T. McLaurin (212)
Touchdowns: B. Robinson (4)
Coaches:
Chicago Bears: Matt Eberflus (2nd season)
Washington Commanders: Ron Rivera (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
