Game Time: 7:30 PM ET, Tuesday, April 5th, 2022 

Venue:  FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

Where to Watch: NBA League Pass

DraftKings:  Spread:  

Fanduel:  Spread:  NL

BetMGM:  Spread: NL

Hornets: 40-38, 9th place Eastern Conference

Heat: 50-28, 1st place Eastern Conference

An NBA Eastern Conference matchup with seemingly implications for every team in the East as we cruise into the final four games of the season for most NBA teams.  The East is filled with competitive teams and the standings are tight and tense. The Miami Heat are in 1st place in the East with a 10 game lead over the 9th place Hornets.  To illustrate how much more competitive the East is than the West… Over in the Western Conference the 1st place Phoenix Suns are 28 games ahead of the 9th place New Orleans Pelicans!  The final four games of the season in the Eatsern conference will be a lot like shooting dice… Teams that go 4-0 can jump several spots IF the teams next to them do not do as well.  A short Heat losing streak could easily rearrange the entire top-five place in the Eastern Conference Standings.  Why that is important is that all these teams NEED home court advantage in addition to perfect or near perfect health.  

The Charlotte Hornets have won 7 of their last ten games.  They went 6-4 ATS during that stretch.  They lost BIG in their last outing against the Philadelphia 76ers 144-114, which of course was also a loss against the spread.  The Hornets gave up 29 points and 14 rebounds to C Joel Embiid which was the heart of the steamrolling they received.  This is not a surprising result.  The Hornets have a good young roster that is growing in skill and confidence at every position EXCEPT CENTER.  At center the Hornets are completely lost without any chance of improvement until they try to move up in the draft on draft day. At Center Charlotte starts Mason Plumlee who was -25 +/- in his performance against Joel Embiid… The backups for Mason Plumlee are an assortment of nobodies and ill-equipped Power Forwards who move over for a small-ball look.  It does not work.  This weakness actually helps a bit against the Heat C Bam Adebayo as he is undersized… but in the skill department Bam is head and shoulders above anyone the Hornets will trot out onto the floor.  The Hornets will dive deep into the Center market this offseason both in the draft and free agency… Unfortunately for Charlotte, the Toronto Raptors are in the same boat… and I would not want to compete against Toronto’s Masai Ujiri to get the best player possible at any position.  This lack of Center makes them severe underdogs against Miami.

The Miami Heat have won 5 of their last ten games.. It has put them in the precarious position of needing every win to hold off Milwaukee and Philadelphia if they want to maintain home court for the playoffs.  They went 3-7 ATS during that stretch.  The Good News is they are on a 3-game winning streak that coincides with a 3-game win streak ATS… They beat Sacramento, Boston, and Chicago during that stretch. The Heat have turned into a team of Usual Suspects… In wins they need good games from C Bam Adebayo, SF Jimmy Butler, PG Kyle Lowry, and SG Tyler Herro.. They all got around 20 points in the win.  In losses they only need one of those guys to have a bad game… the bunch as a whole does not have a dominant scorer like Milwaukee or Philly.  This weakness may be why they don’t feel like a first place team or a team destined for the Finals.  In order to get there, the Heat will need improved performance by Duncan Robinson, PJ Tucker, or one of the unknowns that fill spots from the bench.  The highlight of the Heat is their defensive intensity… If they get offense by sharing the load.. The defense will have to pull them through the playoffs.  They will be big favorites against the Charlotte Hornets.

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Charlotte is 40-38 on the season, but 42-34-2 ATS.  They have logged 38 Overs, 39 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 20-19 in road games.

The Miami Heat are 50-28 on the season, but 43-34-1 ATS. They have notched 46 Overs and 32 Unders.  They are 27-12 in home games.

The Hornets are 5th in scoring with 114.8 ppg, 12th in rebounds with 44.6 per game, and 2nd in AST/TO ratio with 2.1.  On defense they are weak with a 27th ranking while allowing 114.8 ppg.

The Heat are 17th in scoring with 109.5 ppg, 21st in rebounds with 43.9 per game, and 17th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 3rd while holding opponents to 105.1 ppg.

Our prediction for Tuesday, April 5th is….  Heat 123 - Hornets 105

Bam Adebayo for the Heat will dominate Miles Plumlee on the block… and yes PF Miles Bridges can be an answer for the Hornets, but PF PJ Tucker is out there for his defense not his scoring.  The result will be another -20 +/- for Mason Plumlee.  That is insurmountable for most teams let alone a 9th place team playing a 1st place team that is SO MUCH BETTER on defense.

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Charlotte is 50-28 ATS after having lost their last two games the last 3 seasons.
Miami is 18-7 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games this season.
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER the last 3 seasons.

Charlotte: SG James Bouknight (neck) Out 

Miami:  No injuries to report.

Hornets: SF Miles Bridges, PF PJ Washington, C Mason Plumlee, PG LaMelo Ball, SG Terry Rozier.

Miami: PF PJ Tucker, SF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo, PG Kyle Lowry, SG Max Strus

Hornets

Points: Miles Bridges 20.3

Assists: LaMelo Ball 7.5

Rebounds: Mason Plumlee 7.9

Heat

Points: Jimmy Butler 21.3

Assists: Kyle Lowry 7.6

Rebounds: Bam Adebayo 10.2

Hornets: James Borrego

Heat: Erik Spoelstra