CFB Four Teams Who Should Cool Off ATS

The college football regular season is one third of the way complete. I want to take a look at the teams who have been covering spreads at a high rate and by a wide margin. Are there some teams here we might be able to look to go against in the next few weeks?

James Madison (4-0 ATS Average ATS Margin +18.3 Points) The Dukes are covering spreads by huge margins. The oddsmakers are trying hard to catch up. James Madison has been better than I expected this season, but I don’t think they can continue to keep this pace. James Madison has to play at Georgia Southern (tricky place to play), and then they host a Georgia State team that is far better than they were expected to be. James Madison travels to App State after that. App State has the best home field advantage in the Sun Belt. 

Mississippi State (4-0 ATS Average ATS Margin +14.5 Points) I like Super Kamario as much as anyone out there, but it is going to be tough for this Mississippi State team to keep covering these inflated spreads. The Bulldogs schedule the next four weeks is as brutal as you could possibly see. They must host Alabama this week. They then travel to Baton Rouge to take on LSU. They come home to host Oklahoma after that. The stretch finishes with a trip to Austin to take on the top rated Longhorns. 

North Texas (3-1 ATS Average ATS Margin +11.0 Points) Here’s a team I was clearly too low on coming into the season. Tayven Jackson and the North Texas offense have been far better than I expected. North Texas still has a very weak defense though, and I think the market is quickly catching up to North Texas. I see several road spots on this schedule where they should give up a bunch of points. North Texas goes to Navy to take on the option attack of the Midshipmen. The Mean Green also travel to play UTSA, and the Roadrunners are excellent on their home field. North Texas still isn’t a good team, and the point spread tax will be high here.

Louisiana (3-0-1 ATS Average ATS Margin +9.9 Points) Louisiana is a good team, but they aren’t a team built to win games by huge margins. They play a weak schedule and will be a big favorite several times in the next few weeks. The tempo they play is so slow that it typically makes it hard for them to extend the margin of the game. Louisiana still has a below average defense that will allow other teams to get the back door cover also. I’m selling high on Louisiana.