by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Oct 31, 2021
Game time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Waldo Stadium, Kalamazoo, MI
Where to watch: ESPNU
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Western Michigan -10; O/U 63
BetMGM: Western Michigan -10; O/U 62.5
Caesars: Western Michigan -10; O/U 63
Season record
Central Michigan: 4-4 (2-2 MAC)
Western Michigan: 5-3 (2-2 MAC)
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Central Michigan - Western Michigan preview and analysis
Last week
Central Michigan: Off (lost 39-38 vs. Northern Illinois on Oct. 23)
Western Michigan: Off (lost 34-15 at Toledo on Oct. 23)
It’s a MAC-heavy early part of the week with games that have implications in the standings.
This matchup between the Central Michigan Chippewas and the Western Michigan Broncos is no different when the teams meet on Wednesday in Kalamazoo.
There’s a five-way tie for second place in the West Division, and both of these Michigan schools are involved in it. The winner gets to breathe new life with a chance to catch the Northern Illinois Huskies, while the loser is left trying to salvage a chance at a bowl berth.
Western Michigan can accomplish both of those with a win against the in-state rivals. The Broncos can become bowl eligible for the third time in five years under coach Tim Lester since he took over for P.J. Fleck.
More importantly, the Broncos need a win in general. They come into this mid-week matchup having lost two of three, and more recently a 19-point loss at the Toledo Rockets two Saturdays ago. WMU held a two-point lead at halftime before Toledo erupted in the third quarter with three touchdowns.
Quarterback Kaleb Eleby completed just over 50 percent of his passes for 232 yards, while top receiver Skyy Moore hauled in 128 of those yards on eight receptions. This was despite the Western Michigan offense outgaining Toledo 398-330, but the Broncos had two turnovers.
Central Michigan comes in 2-2 in its last four and are a one-point loss at home against Northern Illinois from a three-game winning streak. The Chippewas have played a lot of close football over the last month; four of their last five games have been decided by one score.
CMU gained 500 yards of total offense on only 23:51 of possession, the the Central Michigan defense is what fell apart late. The Chippewas led by 17 early in the third quarter, only for Northern Illinois to score 18 unanswered points in about 14 minutes of game action.
Chippewas quarterback Daniel Richardson had a great day throwing for 289 yards and three touchdowns, while workhorse running back Lew Nichols III ran for 192 yards and two touchdowns. The key is CMU’s pass defense. NIU quarterback Rocky Lombardi threw for 348 yards on 17 completions to go with three touchdowns.
Central Michigan’s secondary allows 270.5 passing yards per game while the defense gives up 28 PPG. If Eleby gets time to throw, he’s going to make a difference in this game.
Prediction
Whichever quarterback throws the fewest interceptions is going to win this game, which sounds cliche, I know. But both programs have an efficient passing game; both quarterbacks enter this game having thrown two interceptions each. The Chippewas’ running game will keep the Western Michigan offense off the field, but good luck trying to slow down that offense. CMU covers, but WMU gets the win. Western Michigan by 8
Betting trends
Central Michigan is 10-4 ATS off its last 14 following an over.
Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS in its last eight following a game where the total was 60 or more.
Western Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a straight-up loss.
Statistical leaders
Central Michigan:
Passing: Daniel Richardson -- 1,513 yards, 14 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Lew Nichols III -- 915 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Kalil Pimpleton -- 578 yards, 2 TD
Defense: Gage Kreski -- 56 tackles, 1 INT
Western Michigan:
Passing: Kaleb Eleby -- 1,977 yards, 12 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Sean Tyler -- 631 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Skyy Moore -- 762 yards, 5 TD
Defense: Ali Fayad -- 6 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
