by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Nov 01, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Huskie Stadium, DeKalb, IL
Where to watch: ESPNU
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Northern Illinois -4
FanDuel: Northern Illinois -3.5
BetMGM: Northern Illinois -4.5
Caesars: Northern Illinois -4
Season record
Central Michigan: 2-6 (1-3 MAC)
Northern Illinois: 2-6 (1-3 MAC)
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Central Michigan - Northern Illinois preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Central Michigan: lost 34-18 vs. Bowling Green
Northern Illinois: lost 24-17 at Ohio
It’s a very weird season in the MAC, even halfway through conference season. And for some reason, that’s even more weird when we’re looking at a game between two 2-6 ball clubs that are usually powerhouses when the Central Michigan Chippewas and the Northern Illinois Huskies in the great, lovely city of DeKalb on Wednesday.
It’s a very weird season in the MAC, even halfway through conference season. And for some reason, that’s even more weird when we’re looking at a game between two 2-6 ball clubs that are usually powerhouses when the Central Michigan Chippewas and the Northern Illinois Huskies in the great, lovely city of DeKalb on Wednesday.
It has been a very weird season for both of these clubs, both coming off losing four of five. Both teams are coming off losses last week that might have been back-breaking varieties. Whomever loses this game is likely out of the running for bowl eligibility and that alone is going to be a very interesting approach for one of these programs going forward.
Central Michigan is coming off a 34-18 loss at home to Bowling Green at home in what was another horrendous offensive performance. The Chippewas, who average 25.3 points per game, were held to 18 while garnering just 306 total yards. The problem? Four turnovers to the point where you can’t even trust them to do anything. CMU quarterback Jase Bauer threw for 185 yards and a touchdown, but also threw an interception. Bauer also ran for 109 yards, but it wasn’t just enough. Bowling Green was very opportunistic with a 45-yard fumble return for a touchdown that put the game away.
Central Michigan’s defense has given up nearly 30 points per game this year, even though recently they’ve played better lately. The problem is the offense has not been good, and it’s been too inconsistent to be taken seriously.
Northern Illinois hasn’t been in a position like this in a long time, either. A team that’s always been known for running the ball and doing it well has done just that. The defense has been about as horrendous as one can imagine. Sure, the Huskies gave up 24 points or fewer in back-to-back weeks, but the three weeks prior they’ve been getting torched against Kentucky, Ball State and Toledo. NIU is coming off a 24-17 road loss to Ohio, a team that’s been charging ahead of the MAC standings and is looking like a strong team contending for a conference title.
NIU quarterback Justin Lynch, brother of NIU legend Jordan, did not play like his brother on this day by completing just 9 of 18 passes for 110 yards and didn’t do anything else outside of that. NIU outgained Ohio 377-354, but the running game needed some complementary stuff from the passing game and didn’t get it.
Prediction
This is a crapshoot of a game and not many people firmly believe that NIU should be in. Most books have NIU as 4-point favorites and I can see why, considering the pedigree of this program. But Central Michigan’s maligned defense has been good against the run. That’s the only thing going right for them at the moment. Northern Illinois by 14
Betting trends
Central Michigan is 8-4 ATS as an underdog the last three years.
Central Michigan is 8-5 ATS on the road the last three years.
Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS in November the last three years.
Northern Illinois is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games.
Northern Illinois is 33-30 ATS off a road loss since 1992.
Statistical leaders
Central Michigan:
Passing: Daniel Richardson -- 1,743 yards, 13 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Lew Nichols III -- 469 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: Carlos Carriere -- 448 yards, 2 TD
Northern Illinois:
Passing: Ethan Hampton -- 798 yards, 7 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Harrison Waylee -- 727 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Cole Tucker -- 560 yards, 3 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
