by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Oct 17, 2023
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 21, 2023
Venue: Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: UCF +19, OU -19; Over/Under: 65 points
Bet365: Point Spread: UCF +19.5, OU -19.5; Over/Under: 65 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: UCF +19.5, OU -19.5; Over/Under: 64.5 points
Season Record
Central Florida Knights: 3-3 (0-3) (13th place, Big 12)
Oklahoma Sooners: 6-0 (3-0) (1st place, Big 12)
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Central Florida Knights: lost their last game on the road against the Kansas Jayhawks 51-22.
Oklahoma Sooners: won their last game at a neutral site against the Texas Longhorns 34-30.
Central Florida Knights vs Oklahoma Sooners Preview and Analysis
Central Florida is entering this game with a 3-3 record overall and they have a 0-3 record in their conference games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Kansas 51-22. John Rhys Plumlee was the starting QB and he completed 3/7 passes for 33 passing yards before getting injured and replaced by Timmy McClain who completed 12/15 passes for 136 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. RJ Harvey led the team in rushing yards with 133 and 1 TD. Javon Baker led the receivers with 85 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Jason Johnson Jr. led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Malachi Lawrence led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that game.
Oklahoma is entering this game with a 6-0 record overall and they have a 3-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Texas 34-30. Dillon Gabriel was the starting QB and he completed 23/38 passes for 285 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Dillon Gabriel led the team in rushing yards with 113 and 1 TD. Jalil Farooq led the receivers with 130 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Jaren Kanak led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while Ethan Downs led the defense in sacks with 2. Kendel Dolby and Gentry Williams each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.
Central Florida vs Oklahoma Prediction
The current betting odds have Oklahoma listed as a 19 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Both of these teams just had their bye week but it is going to help Oklahoma a lot more here after winning the Red River Rivalry in their last game. They have had some time to settle down now with their 6-0 record overall and they will be looking to follow up with a strong performance at home. UCF has struggled a lot this season as they are only 3-3 overall and they are also 0-3 in conference play as they have really struggled more against Big 12 opponents in their new conference. Now they have to face what might be the toughest opponent in this conference this year on the road while Oklahoma is coming off their bye and this game just spells trouble for a struggling UCF team who was blown out by Kansas with their backup QB in their last game. UCF is also dealing with their own QB injuries now while Oklahoma has a lot more than a Big 12 Championship on their mind this season. The best way to place a bet here is on Oklahoma to cover the spread in this game.
Central Florida Oklahoma Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 21, 2023 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Oklahoma 56 UCF 17.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Central Florida Knights: 4-10 ATS in road games. 7-13 ATS against conference opponents. 3-14 ATS off 1 or more straight overs. 11-3 OVER in road games. 5-1 OVER in all games. 5-0 OVER as a road underdog.
Oklahoma Sooners: 6-0 ATS in all games. 17-9 ATS in a home game where the total is between 63.5 and 70. 12-5 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. 24-16 OVER after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game. 9-3 OVER off a win against a conference rival.
Key Injuries
Central Florida Knights: J. Plumlee (QB) Ques Sat - Knee. J. Davis (TE) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed.
Oklahoma Sooners: A. Anthony (WR) out for season - Knee. D. Beville (QB) Out indefinitely - Knee. K. McIntyre (TE) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. J. Harrington (DB) out for season - Knee. K. Helms (TE) Out indefinitely - Knee. J. Rowe (DB) out for season - Undisclosed. P. Picciotti (LB) out for season - Undisclosed. D. Graham II (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“That was obviously a disappointing loss. The first half was embarrassing from an offensive standpoint. Defensively, not being able to stop the run was one of the stories of the game.” - Gus Malzahn after his team’s loss against Kansas in their last game.
“He’s the calmest guy I’ve ever been around at the quarterback position. He was fearless. I don’t put any limits on what Dillon can do. He’s playing as confident as anybody on our team right now.” - Brent Venables after his team’s win against Texas in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Central Florida Knights
WR Baker, Javon
WR Hudson, Kobe
WR Townsend, Xavier
TE Holler, Alec
QB McClain, Timmy
RB Harvey, RJ
Oklahoma Sooners
WR Anthony, Andrel
WR Farooq, Jalil
WR Stoops, Drake
TE Stogner, Austin
QB Gabriel, Dillon
RB Walker, Tawee
Statistical Leaders
Central Florida Knights
Passing: T. McClain (1008)
Rushing: R. Harvey (506)
Receiving: K. Hudson (473)
Touchdowns: R. Harvey (8)
Oklahoma Sooners
Passing: D. Gabriel (1878)
Rushing: T. Walker (239)
Receiving: A. Anthony (429)
Touchdowns: N. Anderson (6)
Coaches:
Central Florida Knights: Gus Malzahn (3rd season)
Oklahoma Sooners: Brent Venables (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
