by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Dec 30, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Where to watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Bucs -3; Bucs -165, Panthers +140; O/U 40.5
FanDuel: Bucs -3; Bucs -176, Panthers +148; O/U 40.5
BetMGM: Bucs -3; Bucs -175, Panthers +145; O/U 40.5
Caesars: Bucs -3; Bucs -169, Panthers +143; O/U 40.5
Season record
Panthers: 6-9 (2nd place, NFC South)
Buccaneers: 7-8 (1st place, NFC South)
We’re coming down the home stretch of the NFL season and there’s still a lot left to get excited for on your TV screen (or your streaming device if you’re like me and watch Sunday Ticket on a Fire Stick. That works, too). Nevertheless, the final few weeks of the regular season are going to be hectic for everyone on the field, but just as much as everyone off it. You’re probably going to need to figure out which plays are the best ones in terms of teams sitting the star players for the playoff advantage, or which teams are going all in for the final playoff push. If you need that extra push, trust that our champion handicappers can get the job done for you. Matt Fargo has a 17-9-0 run over the last 30 days in the NFL. Brian Bitler has continued to stay consistent, despite a wild, unpredictable season, by going 16-9-0. Do you want a piece of this action? Make sure to stay locked to bigal.com and follow our champion handicappers so you can be a champion, too!
Panthers - Bucs preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Panthers: won 37-23 vs. Lions
Buccaneers: won 19-16 (OT) at Cardinals
Panthers analysis
There has never been a more golden road laid in front of the Carolina Panthers than there is at this moment. The formula is fairly simple. If Carolina wins out, they will win the NFC South and host their playoff game. Think about the magnitude of that for a second. Carolina started this season with Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield as their quarterback options. Both did not perform very well, and both were hurt at one point, and Carolina went with PJ Walker at one point to help keep the ship afloat. Carolina traded Christian McCaffrey to San Francisco, got rid of Mayfield, and are still very much in striking distance to win this division.
And all they have to do is go into Tampa on Sunday and knock off the Buccaneers after their hectic game in Arizona on Christmas Day. But last week was about as impressive of an outing for Carolina with its season on the line than anyone could have imagined. Carolina, in the first half alone, ran for 240 yards against the Detroit Lions and justice gashed one of the hottest defenses in the league and one of the hottest teams in the league in a game that was over by the end of the first half.
D'Onta Foreman Ran for a career high 165 yards last week along with a touchdown, while Chuba Hubbard also ran for a career high 125 yards last week. The two running backs became the first teammates each with 100 rushing yards in the first half of the same game since December of 2006 when Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor did it for the Jacksonville Jaguars. How insane is that?
Carolina is getting three points on the road in this one and the Panthers had been one of the better teams against the spread over the last couple of months going 5-1 in its last six and seven of its last nine since losing to the Los Angeles Rams on October 16th. I have no idea what to make of this team other than I would really like for them to win because of narrative and an easier road for the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs. But knowing my luck Dallas would choke that one anyway so I don't know why I bother.
Buccaneers analysis
Tom Brady gets the fight another day thanks to a thrilling overtime victory for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Arizona Cardinals on Christmas night, winning 19-16 in overtime. This is pretty much what Tampa Bay should have avoided, but once again this division has been the uttermost horrendous batch of football one could have ever imagined. It truly is remarkable though that Brady reached the 4000 yard mark this season for the 14th time in his career tying Peyton Manning for the most in league history.
These are achievements that we should be acknowledging if we are Tampa Bay fans or even NFL fans in general but the fact of the matter is the Buccaneers are just somehow hanging on by a thread and it only feels right that there is a legitimate chance that they are completely knocked out for the rest of the season, though I know going against Brady in a late December game with playoff implications on the line is not really the best idea. If you're a Carolina Panthers fan the only thing you can really hope for is that Tampa Bay partied hard on the lake on New Year's Eve and is coming in completely hungover.
But there is concern if you are Tampa Bay and the fact that the offense has been horrible all season long, averaging 17.7 points per game, despite Brady being as efficient and as good as he has been. It doesn't matter who Tampa Bay is facing at this point. Defensively they are gonna be fine. They have a lot of talent defensively that has been able to do well against the run and has been able to do well against the pass. But the fact that they have not been able to score a lot of points is the biggest concern, and it was not that long ago when Tampa Bay went to Carolina and got punked 21-3 as 13 point favorites and just looked horrendous against Carolina. There is a revenge factor in play, but if Tampa Bay can't get its act together, you might as well pack it up for the season.
Prediction
That revenge factor is the only reason why I'm going with Tampa Bay. If it was any other opponent, I would not trust the Buccaneers to get a victory here. But it is at home and it is Tom Brady. Any other time, I wouldn't do it. But I'm going to this time. Buccaneers 20, Panthers 14
Betting trends
Panthers are 6-0 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more the last 3 seasons.
Panthers are 6-0 ATS on the road off a home win the last 3 seasons.
Buccaneers are 3-11 ATS this season.
Panthers are 2-11 ATS off an over the last 2 seasons.
Statistical leaders
Panthers:
Passing: Sam Darnold – 759 yards, 4 TD
Rushing: D’Onta Foreman – 811 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: DJ Moore – 761 yards, 6 TD
Defense: Brian Burns – 12.5 sacks
Buccaneers:
Passing: Tom Brady – 4,178 yards, 21 TD, 9 INT
Rushing: Leonard Fournette – 640 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Chris Godwin – 848 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Vita Vea – 6.5 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
