Game Time: 7:30 PM ET, Friday, October 15th, 2021 

Venue: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon 

Where to Watch: ESPN

DraftKings:  Spread: Oregon -13.5:  O/U: 55

Circa:  Spread: Oregon -14:  O/U: 55.5

Caesars:  Spread: Oregon -14:  O/U: 55.5

Cal:  1-4 (Pac-12)

Oregon:  4-1 (Pac-12)

Cal is having a rough season so far… and in Eugene, where they will be a road underdog, it is likely to get rougher.  The Pac-12 has diminished in the college football conversation since USC got a near death penalty back in the final minutes of Pete Carroll’s reign.  Oregon has been the lone stand-out in the National conversation since. The SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 have all gained ground leaving the Pac-12 to pick up bowl game scraps.  A dominant rest of the season for Oregon coupled with a continuation of UCLA’s re-emergence would be great for the Pac-12 returning to the national conversation.  The big problem is of course the Pac-12 is a conference that more than any other beats up on each other.  Every team has a long standing rivalry with every other team and they play each other tough even when some of the teams are struggling nationally.

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RECENT FORM

Cal is limping. The latest spread of 14 points in this game is a low number. Cal opened the season with a loss to Nevada 22-17.  Game 2 spilled into loss #2 against TCU 34-32, it was close but a loss is a loss.  Game 3 was an easy win against an easy opponent Sacramento State 42-30… the opponent was so easy there is no excuse to have let them score 30 points (I hear instead of a team bus the Sacramento State players carpool to the games… kidding, but they shouldn’t have scored 30).  Game 4 was a tough overtime loss to Washington 31-24.  Game 5 was a terrible loss to Washington State 21-6.  I submit to you that Oregon would have beaten each and every one of those opponents. Cal’s games seem to have no highlight.

Oregon is flying almost high.  They are coming off a bye week (Cal is too) and a bad overtime stumble against Stanford.  The Ducks beat their first four opponents in a row.  Fresno State 31-24, Ohio State 35-28, Stony Brook 48-7, Arizona 41-19…. Then the loss to Stanford in overtime 31-24.  Stanford doesn’t have a great team this year, but they have always had the calling card of super disciplined and well coached.  Oregon’s games are highlighted by that Ohio State win.

Cal is ranked 103rd in points scored, averaging 19.8 points per game. The Cal stats are skewed by the Sacramento State win…. If we take that out the touchdowns and total yards plummet.

Oregon is ranked 35th in points scored, averaging 32.8 points per game. The Oregon stats are given a boost that after RB CJ Verdell has put in 406 total yards, the next RB Travis Dye has put up 382 yards.  They have a real thunder and lightning rushing attack.

California has the 78th ranked defense in the FBS.  They have given up 18 touchdowns and 389.8 yards per game.  Daniel Scott is leading the team in tackles and interceptions… without his takeaways they would sink like a stone in these rankings.

Oregon is behind Cal in the FBS defensive ranking… 90th.  They have given up 13 touchdowns on 412 yards per game.  A big part of this ranking is an impactful Ohio State offense dropped 28 points on them… The Ducks got the win though.

Our prediction for Friday, October 15th is… Oregon 45 - Cal 17

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Cal is 8-2 ATS as an underdog the last 3 seasons.

Cal is 7-3 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons.

Oregon is 2-7 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 - 21 pts over the last 3 seasons.

Oregon is 2-4 ATS when playing a team with a losing record the last 3 seasons.

Cal:  QB Chase Garbers, RB Damien Moore, TE Jake Tonges, WR Jeremiah Hunter, WR Trevon Clark, WR Nikko Remigio, LT Will Craig, LG Ben Coleman, C Matthew Cindric, RG McKade Mettauer, RT Valentino Daltoso.

Oregon:  QB Anthony Brown, RB CJ Verdell, TE Terrance Ferguson, WR Johnny Johnson III, WR Kris Hutson, WR Mycah Pittman, LT George Moore, LG TJ Bass, OC Alex Forsyth, RG Ryan Walk, RT Steven Jones

Cal:  

Passing yards:  Chase Garbers 1,245

Rushing Yards:  Damien Moore 313

Receiving yards:  Trevon Clark 322

Tackles:  Daniel Scott 33

Interceptions:  Daniel Scott  3

Oregon:

Passing Yards: Anthony Brown 950 

Rushing Yards: CJ Verdell 406 

Receiving Yards: Johnny Johnson III 162

Tackles: Noah Sewell 42

Interceptions: Verone McKinley III 4

Oregon:  Mario Cristobal.  The man makes 5 ½ million dollars a year to coach a college football team in the shadow of Nike’s corporate offices.  It’s a good life if you can get it.

Cal:  Justin Wilcox. Justin is in his fifth season as the Golden Bear head coach… posting winning seasons and bowl games in 2018 and 2019.  He doesn’t make nearly as mu8ch as Mario, but he is given a much longer leash in losing games.

Partly Cloudy.  66* is the day’s high, 66% humidity. When the sun goes down it will get chilly in Eugene Oregon this time of the year.  The Cal Players will have to prepare for the stinging pop of a cold ball on their fingertips.