by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Apr 28, 2022
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN
Where to watch: Bally Sports Wisconsin, Bally Sports North, NHL Network, SNW
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Wild -235, Flames +190
BetMGM: Wild -250, Flames +200
Caesars: Wild -233, Flames +190
Season record
Flames: 50-20-10
Wild: 51-22-7
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Flames - Wild preview and analysis
If you’re looking for the ultimate need-to-win-for-momentum and earn home-ice advantage ploy, the Minnesota Wild seem like the perfect way to go in Thursday’s matchup against the Calgary Flames in St. Paul.
And honestly, who wouldn’t love this as a potential Western Conference Final preview? I wouldn’t rule it out, especially with the way the Pacific side of the bracket is shaping up and the Central being an absolute dog fight that will leave teams bloodied after Round 1. It’s wild, really.
But the Wild still have something to play for, particularly home-ice in their first-round matchup against the St. Louis Blues. Minnesota is tied with the Blues at 109 points, but the Wild have a game in hand.
A win Thursday would have clinched it for the Wild, but they lost their last game 5-3 to the Arizona Coyotes on Tuesday night to end their five-game winning streak. Not really the ideal situation for Marc-Andre Fleury to give up four goals to one of the worst teams in the NHL, but I guess you get it out now before the playoffs roll around.
Joel Eriksson Ek and Marcus Foligno both had two points, but it was still the defense that let them down when it needed most.
"Our whole game sucked tonight," Wild coach Dean Evason said. "We got what we deserved. That hasn't happened to us, fortunately, and we didn't shoot the puck. We were just going through the lineup and you don't go through everybody, but it's hard to find a good player here tonight."
The Wild can certainly use this as a teaching moment as it pertains to how to close games, which is kind of crazy to think about. But certainly, there will be time to reflect on such a loss and can make things more enjoyable should they get a win against Calgary.
The Flames have already secured a playoff spot and showed a glimpse of what could happen in their first-round matchup against the Nashville Predators. And man, what a game that was and what a finish. Matthew Tkachuk scored the tying goal with legit one-tenth of a second left in regulation, and went on to win 5-4 in overtime.
"I couldn't hear, so I didn't know if it was actually in or not," Tkachuk said. "When I came to the bench, they said it was in. It was just like, `What else can possibly happen in this game?' It was good to get that one and then get it in [overtime]."
The Flames keep adding to their offensive totals this year with Tkachuk adding to more than 40 goals this season. It was one of those matchups where you likely had to be there in order to experience what in the world happened that night.
"I'd have to say, I've played over 1,000 games now, and that's probably a top-five game that I've been a part of with the goals, the hits, the fights, the emotion, crowd," Calgary forward Milan Lucic said. "So it was a great game to be a part of."
Prediction
I will go with the team that has more to play for in this situation. Minnesota needs a bounce-back performance after losing to the Coyotes, and I think they need a better barometer in terms of competition to go forward with. Wild win 3-2
Betting trends
Flames are 14-7 this season when scoring four goals or more in a road win last game.
Flames are 8-1 this season after winning by one goal the previous game.
Wild are 6-0 this season following consecutive division games.
Wild are 14-3 the past three seasons following a home loss against a division opponent.
Projected lines
Flames:
Johnny Gaudreau -- Elias Lindholm -- Matthew Tkachuk
Andrew Mangiapane -- Mikael Backlund -- Tyler Toffoli
Dillon Dube -- Calle Jarnkrok -- Blake Coleman
Milan Lucic -- Trevor Lewis -- Brett Ritchie
Noah Hanifin -- Rasmus Andersson
Oliver Kylington -- Christopher Tanev
Nikita Zadorov -- Erik Gudbranson
Jacob Markstrom
Johnny Gaudreau -- Elias Lindholm -- Matthew Tkachuk
Andrew Mangiapane -- Mikael Backlund -- Tyler Toffoli
Dillon Dube -- Calle Jarnkrok -- Blake Coleman
Milan Lucic -- Trevor Lewis -- Brett Ritchie
Noah Hanifin -- Rasmus Andersson
Oliver Kylington -- Christopher Tanev
Nikita Zadorov -- Erik Gudbranson
Jacob Markstrom
Wild:
Kirill Kaprizov -- Ryan Hartman -- Nick Bjugstad
Kevin Fiala -- Frederick Gaudreau -- Matt Boldy
Jordan Greenway -- Joel Eriksson Ek -- Marcus Foligno
Nicolas Deslauriers -- Tyson Jost -- Brandon Duhaime
Jacob Middleton -- Alex Goligoski
Jonas Brodin -- Dmitry Kulikov
Jordie Benn -- Jon Merrill
Marc-Andre Fleury
Kirill Kaprizov -- Ryan Hartman -- Nick Bjugstad
Kevin Fiala -- Frederick Gaudreau -- Matt Boldy
Jordan Greenway -- Joel Eriksson Ek -- Marcus Foligno
Nicolas Deslauriers -- Tyson Jost -- Brandon Duhaime
Jacob Middleton -- Alex Goligoski
Jonas Brodin -- Dmitry Kulikov
Jordie Benn -- Jon Merrill
Marc-Andre Fleury
Statistical leaders
Flames:
Points: Johnny Gaudreau -- 113
Goals: Matthew Tkachuk -- 41
Assists: Johnny Gaudreau -- 74
Goalie: Jacob Markstrom -- 37-15-8, 2.21 GAA, .922 SV%
Wild:
Points: Kirill Kaprizov -- 105
Goals: Kirill Kaprizov -- 45
Assists: Kirill Kaprizov -- 60
Goalie: Cam Talbot -- 31-12-4, 2.78 GAA, .911 SV%
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
