by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Nov 02, 2022
Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: USC -21
FanDuel: USC -21.5
BetMGM: USC -21
Caesars: USC -21.5
Season record
Cal: 3-5 (1-4 Pac-12)
No. 9 USC: 7-1 (5-1 Pac-12)
We're coming down to the wire in what should be an exciting final month of the college football season. The conference championship chases are on, bowl games are to be decided, and who gets into the College Football Playoff is anybody's guess to this point. If you're still trying to figure out who's the best to play at this point of the year, look no further than our champion handicappers leading the way in the college football world. Our own Kyle Hunter is 23-8-0 over the last month, while Brian Bitler is 21-13-0 in the run. Kyle's reeled in a net profit of over $14,000. Now you feel like you should be getting on the action, huh? Make sure you go check out bigal.com to see all of the work our champion handicappers are trying to do to get money in YOUR pocket with our selections. Make sure to hit up our Best Bets page for more!
Cal - USC preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Cal: lost 42-24 at No. 8 Oregon
USC: won 45-37 at Arizona
The USC Trojans are on shaky ground right now. They need a week or two to get right back on track before this final month of the season. The schedule isn't going to get easy down the stretch, but with three of their final four at home, this weekend might be the best time for USC to get on track with a matchup against the Cal Golden Bears on Saturday night.
The Trojans have, indeed, been rocked a bit the last couple of weeks, coming off their first loss of the year, 43-42 to the No. 20 Utah Utes. Following that, USC had a rough go against a struggling Arizona team, winning only 45-37 despite a stellar game from quarterback Caleb Williams, throwing for 411 yards and five touchdowns. Star running back Travis Dye ran for 113 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries, and USC had to withstand that charge without a number of key pieces, including top receiver Jordan Addison.
"The number of things that didn't go our way was a long list and I don't know many teams that would respond like this," USC coach Lincoln Riley said.
But the Trojans are still deep and talented no matter which way you look at it. Addison coudl be back for the Trojans after missing last week due to injury. Getting him back for a potential run at the Pac-12 title, if USC is still in the running given recent weeks with Utah and Oregon, is going to make a world of difference.
The Trojans are ninth in the first installment of the College Football Playoff, so there's still plenty of time to see if USC can get back to that top four level. So long as Williams is playing like the Heisman Trophy candidate he is, they're going to have a chance. Williams, the Oklahoma transfer, has thrown 24 touchdowns to just one interception this season. It's going to go down as one of the best seasons for a USC quarterback in history, and it still might not lead to a conference title or national title. Again, plenty of football left to be played.
But USC's defense will need to be better against a sneak Cal offense that has found its struggles over the last month, losing four in a row. USC's defense has given up 24 points per game, which is right around the mark of how much Cal gives up. If the Bears can establish a rhythm through the air with quarterback Jack Plummer, there might be an opening. But the home crowd will always play a factor in Southern California, and given the MLS Cup Final with LAFC happening right across the street, that energy might be too electric for Cal to have to deal with.
Cal's defense is coming into this week having given up almost 420 yards per game with 292 of them through the air. This could be another electric display of throwing the football for Williams and company, and even if it gets to the point of USC in a shootout, I trust that offense to get things done more than Cal's defense to make a play.
Prediction
Tahj Washington (7 receptions, 118 yards, 2 TD) and Kyle Ford (6 catches, 114 yards, 1 TD) were electric in Addison's absence last week. There is no shortage of weapons at USC. That's why this game alone will be a dominant barnburner from the USC side. I can't see Cal holding them off in any fashion, no matter who is or out of the lineup. USC by 24
The USC Trojans are on shaky ground right now. They need a week or two to get right back on track before this final month of the season. The schedule isn't going to get easy down the stretch, but with three of their final four at home, this weekend might be the best time for USC to get on track with a matchup against the Cal Golden Bears on Saturday night.
The Trojans have, indeed, been rocked a bit the last couple of weeks, coming off their first loss of the year, 43-42 to the No. 20 Utah Utes. Following that, USC had a rough go against a struggling Arizona team, winning only 45-37 despite a stellar game from quarterback Caleb Williams, throwing for 411 yards and five touchdowns. Star running back Travis Dye ran for 113 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries, and USC had to withstand that charge without a number of key pieces, including top receiver Jordan Addison.
"The number of things that didn't go our way was a long list and I don't know many teams that would respond like this," USC coach Lincoln Riley said.
But the Trojans are still deep and talented no matter which way you look at it. Addison coudl be back for the Trojans after missing last week due to injury. Getting him back for a potential run at the Pac-12 title, if USC is still in the running given recent weeks with Utah and Oregon, is going to make a world of difference.
The Trojans are ninth in the first installment of the College Football Playoff, so there's still plenty of time to see if USC can get back to that top four level. So long as Williams is playing like the Heisman Trophy candidate he is, they're going to have a chance. Williams, the Oklahoma transfer, has thrown 24 touchdowns to just one interception this season. It's going to go down as one of the best seasons for a USC quarterback in history, and it still might not lead to a conference title or national title. Again, plenty of football left to be played.
But USC's defense will need to be better against a sneak Cal offense that has found its struggles over the last month, losing four in a row. USC's defense has given up 24 points per game, which is right around the mark of how much Cal gives up. If the Bears can establish a rhythm through the air with quarterback Jack Plummer, there might be an opening. But the home crowd will always play a factor in Southern California, and given the MLS Cup Final with LAFC happening right across the street, that energy might be too electric for Cal to have to deal with.
Cal's defense is coming into this week having given up almost 420 yards per game with 292 of them through the air. This could be another electric display of throwing the football for Williams and company, and even if it gets to the point of USC in a shootout, I trust that offense to get things done more than Cal's defense to make a play.
Prediction
Tahj Washington (7 receptions, 118 yards, 2 TD) and Kyle Ford (6 catches, 114 yards, 1 TD) were electric in Addison's absence last week. There is no shortage of weapons at USC. That's why this game alone will be a dominant barnburner from the USC side. I can't see Cal holding them off in any fashion, no matter who is or out of the lineup. USC by 24
Betting trends
Cal is 8-3 ATS as an underdog the last three years; 2-2 this season.
Cal is 5-1 ATS after failing to cover in two of three over the last three years.
Cal is 5-1 ATS coming off back-to-back conference losses the last three years.
USC is 10-10 ATS as a favorite the last three years.
USC is 9-9 ATS the last three years after a conference game.
The over is 15-4 when USC has two straight games of 40 or more passing attempts over the last three years.
Statistical leaders
Cal:
Passing: Jack Plummer -- 1,968 yards, 13 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Jaydn Ott -- 675 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Jeremiah Hunter -- 544 yards, 2 TD
USC:
Passing: Caleb Williams -- 2,382 yards, 24 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Travis Dye -- 760 yards, 8 TD
Receiving: Jordan Addison -- 585 yards, 7 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Cal Golden Bears - USC Trojans prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
