BYU Cougars vs Utah State Aggies Prediction, Odds and Preview - 10/01/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Friday, October 1, 2021
Venue:  Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium, Logan, UT
Where to Watch:  CBS Sports


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  BYU -8.5, USU +8.5; Over/Under:  58 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  BYU -8.5, USU +8.5; Over/Under:  58 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  BYU -7.5, USU +7.5; Over/Under:  58.5 points

Season Record

BYU Cougars:  4-0 (3rd place, FBS Independents)
Utah State Aggies:  3-1 (2nd place, MW Mountain)
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BYU Cougars vs Utah State Aggies Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
BYU Cougars:  won at home on September 25 against the South Florida Bulls 35-27.
Utah State Aggies:  lost at home on Sep. 25 against the Boise State Broncos 27-3.

BYU Cougars Analysis

The BYU football team is coming into this game with a 4-0 record overall and they will be playing their first true road game of the college football season here on BYU’s schedule. Their 4 wins on this win streak this season came against the Arizona Wildcats, the Utah Utes, the Arizona State Sun Devils, and USF in their last game. This rivalry game did not happen last season due to the one-year hiatus from the pandemic, and next season might be the last as they will be joining the Big 12 conference in coming years. Baylor Romney played a great game in that one as he completed 20/25 passes for 305 yards and 3 touchdowns. Tyler Allgeier led the team in rushing with 81 yards and 2 touchdowns on 15 carries. The receiving corps had a very nice day in their last game. Gunner Romney led the team in receiving with 119 yards and 1 touchdown on 5 receptions while Puka Nacua was right behind him with 102 yards on 4 receptions. Ben Bywater led the defense with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones. Max Tooley recorded the only sack for his team in that game and no one on their defense came away with an interception. They have scored 112 points in their first 4 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 77 points against them. Their offense is averaging 367.3 YPG while their defense is allowing 397.3 YPG.

Utah State Aggies Analysis

USU is coming into this game with a 3-1 record overall and they are 1-1 in their home games where they will be in this game. This game against BYU will be the last non-conference game of the regular season for them as their conference schedule will begin afterwards. They started the season off strong going undefeated through their first 3 games against the Washington State Cougars, the North Dakota Fighting Hawks, and the Air Force Falcons. They were finally handed their first loss of the season in their last game against BSU. Logan Bonner really struggled in that game as he completed 11/25 passes for 173 yards and 2 interceptions. Calvin Tyler Jr. did have a great day in the run game leading the team in rushing with 126 yards on 20 carries. The receiving corps did not do much though as Brandon Bowling led the team in receiving with 62 yards on 4 receptions and Deven Thompkins was right behind him with 60 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Cash Gilliam led the defense with 5 solo tackles, 1 assisted one and 1 sack on the day while Shaq Bond also had 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones. Nick Heninger was the only other player on the defense with a sack in that game and Ajani Carter came away with the 1 interception for his team in that one. They have scored 126 points in their first 4 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 119 points against them. Their offense is averaging 563.3 YPG while their defense is allowing 472.7 YPG.


BYU vs Utah State Prediction

BYU is 13th in the country in the rankings coming into this game. They are an 8.5 point favorite with the current odds and they have won 2 of their games this season by exactly 8 points, including their last. USU has looked in good in most of their games and considering the rivalry here, they will come to play. They had a great day in the run game in their last one and this game's pace will likely be controlled by the tone set in the trenches. The best team to bet on in this one is on USU to cover the spread here.
BYU Utah State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, Oct 1, 2021 (9:00 pm ET start time) is BYU 28 USU 24.
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NCAAF Betting Trends

BYU Cougars: 79-94 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 28-37 ATS after a game where they committed no turnovers.
Utah State Aggies: 29-21 ATS off a home loss. 20-10 ATS after allowing 475 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games. 

Key Injuries

BYU Cougars:  K. Epps (WR) day-to-day - Foot injury. K. Ellis (DB) day-to-day - Neck injury. B. Cosper (WR) out for season - Undisclosed injury.
Utah State Aggies:  None.

Players to Watch

BYU Cougars: Neil Pau’u is one player to watch here. He leads his team in receiving yards and in touchdowns. He always makes a big impact in their games so look for him to make some big catches here as he tries to help his team stay undefeated.
Utah State Aggies: Logan Bonner is one player to watch here. He is the leader on this offense and he will have to step up his game in this one to help his team win. BYU is good so look for him to make the necessary throws to get his team in a position to score.

Notable Quotes

“We found a way to grind it out and get the win. Wins are hard to get in college football.” - Kalani Sitake on how his team gave a disappointing performance despite getting the win against USF.

 “What do you say? Really proud of the guys, but not surprised, to be honest with you. Not surprised at all.” - Head coach Blake Anderson after a shocking upset win over WSU.

Starting Lineups

BYU Cougars
WR Romney, Gunner 
WR Pau'u, Neil 
WR Nacua, Puka 
TE Rex, Isaac 
QB Hall, Jaren 
RB Allgeier, Tyler 
FB Wake, Masen 
Utah State Aggies
WR McGriff, Justin 
WR Scarver, Savon 
WR Thompkins, Deven 
TE Terrell, Carson 
QB Bonner, Logan 
RB Tyler Jr., Calvin 

Statistical Leaders

BYU Cougars
Passing: J. Hall (561)
Rushing: T. Allgeier (265)
Receiving: N. Pau'u (190)
Touchdowns: N. Pau'u (3)
Sacks: K. Pili (1.5)
Tackles: K. Pili (14)
Utah State Aggies
Passing: L. Bonner (959)
Rushing: C. Tyler Jr. (414)
Receiving: D. Thompkins (514)
Touchdowns: C. Tyler Jr. (4)
Sacks: N. Heninger (2)
Tackles: J. Rice (18)
BYU Cougars: Kalani Sitake (6th season)
Utah State Aggies: Blake Anderson (1st season)

Weather Forecast

67 degrees F sunny, 46% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 4 mph wind speeds N.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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