by Rod Pearson
Monday, Dec 12, 2022
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, December 17, 2022
Venue: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: BYU +3.5, SMU -3.5; Over/Under: 66 points
Bet365: Point Spread: BYU +3.5, SMU -3.5; Over/Under: 66 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: BYU +3, SMU -3; Over/Under: 65.5 points
Season Record
BYU Cougars: 7-5 (3rd place, FBS Independents)
SMU Mustangs: 7-5 (5-3) (4th place, AAC)
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BYU Cougars: won their last game on the road against the Stanford Cardinal 35-26.
SMU Mustangs: won their last game at home against the Memphis Tigers 34-31.
BYU Cougars vs SMU Mustangs Preview and Analysis
BYU is entering this New Mexico Bowl game with a 7-5 record overall to end their college football season and they will be playing their 2nd neutral site game of the season here as they are 0-1 in those games this year. They won against the Stanford Cardinal in their last game on the road 35-26. Jaren Hall started that game at QB and he completed 7/11 passes for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns. Christopher Brooks led the team in rushing with 164 yards on 23 rushing attempts. Isaac Rex led the team in receiving with 44 yards and 2 TDs on 2 receptions. Micah Harper led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles. Lorenzo Fauatea led the defense in sacks with 1.5 while no one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
SMU is entering this New Mexico Bowl game with a 7-5 record overall to finish their college football season and they will be playing their 1st neutral site game of the season as they are 0-0 in those games this year. They won against the Memphis Tigers in their last game at home 34-31. Tanner Mordecai started that game at QB and he completed 22/30 passes for 228 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tyler Lavine led the team in rushing with 64 yards and 2 TDs on 25 carries. Rashee Rice led the team in receiving with 147 yards and 1 TD on 13 receptions. Nick Roberts led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles. Isaac Slade-Matautia led the defense in sacks with 1 while Brandon Crossley came away with the only interception for them in that one.
BYU vs SMU Prediction
The current betting odds have BYU listed as a 3.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Both of these teams finished with 7-5 records this season and both have not been very good in Bowl games throughout their history with each having a record under .500 in Bowl games. Both of these teams will likely be playing their starters here, both missing a few key pieces as well, but these should pretty much be the same teams we have seen from them in their last few games. Neither team has really played defense well in their games lately and both are going to give up a lot of points to the good offense on the other side. The over might be a very good look in this game with both offense expected to score a lot of points on each other. No matter who wins this game, it will be very high scoring and both offenses will be able to keep each team in the game with a chance to win it. This will be a very close game either way so the best way to place a bet here is on BYU to cover the spread in this game and keep it a close one.
BYU SMU Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, December 17, 2022 (7:30 pm ET start time) is BYU 45 SMU 41.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
BYU Cougars: 14-29 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 63. 16-29 ATS after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. 12-7 UNDER as a neutral field underdog.
SMU Mustangs: 26-18 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest. 19-9 UNDER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest. 18-9 UNDER off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite.
Key Injuries
BYU Cougars: J. Hall (QB) Prob Sat - Undisclosed. P. Wilgar (LB) Out indefinitely - Ankle. G. Romney (WR) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed.
SMU Mustangs: R. Rice (WR) Ques Sat - Toe. T. Siggers (RB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed. B. Redding (TE) Out indefinitely - Lower Body.
Notable Quotes
“I think when we were looking at him coming back, I think it was going to be difficult for him to function at a high level, so we made the decision to keep him out. But he feels good about being able to come back.” - Kilani Sitake after his team’s win against Stanford in their last game.
“The next 12 days are going to be pretty hectic for us. We have to be out actively recruiting but at the same time preparing for a game in less than two weeks.” - Rhett Lashlee on preparing for this Bowl game while trying to recruit new players for next season.
Starting Lineups
BYU Cougars
WR Romney, Gunner
WR Nacua, Puka
WR Hill, Keanu
TE Rex, Isaac
QB Hall, Jaren
RB Brooks, Christopher
SMU Mustangs
WR Kerley, Jordan
WR Upshaw, Austin
WR Daniels Jr., Roderick
TE Maryland, RJ
QB Mordecai, Tanner
RB Lavine, Tyler
Statistical Leaders
BYU Cougars
Passing: J. Hall (3171)
Rushing: C. Brooks (725)
Receiving: P. Nacua (625)
Touchdowns: P. Nacua (10)
SMU Mustangs
Passing: T. Mordecai (3306)
Rushing: T. Lavine (551)
Receiving: R. Rice (1355)
Touchdowns: R. Rice (10)
Coaches:
BYU Cougars: Kalani Sitake (7th season)
SMU Mustangs: Rhett Lashlee (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
