by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Oct 21, 2022
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA
Where to watch: ESPNU
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: BYU -7
FanDuel: BYU -7
BetMGM: BYU -7
Caesars: BYU -7
Season record
BYU: 4-3
Liberty: 6-1
We're about to hit the fun part of college football season where games start getting a little tighter, performances start to become a little more noteworthy, and times at the books are fun for all. You don't believe me? Look at our own Kyle Hunter posting a 25-7-0 run over the last month in college football. That's even with all of the upsets and everything in between. Week 8 is upon us and we're near the point where college football is every day. You want to get back into the swing of things with this? Make sure to follow our Best Bets page and see what our champion handicappers are up to at bigal.com. Who knows? With a little bit of faith in us, you can be like Kyle, or even have as good a run as Sean Murphy at 32-16-1 over the last 30 days. The choices are yours!
BYU - Liberty preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
BYU: lost 52-35 vs. Arkansas
Liberty: won 21-20 vs. Gardner-Webb
The allure of the BYU Cougars has completely worn off and now everything about that program that we enjoyed through five games has now gone down the drain. Now, the Cougars are trying to right the ship and show that this season isn’t completely a lost cause when they face the Liberty Flames at home in what should be an entertaining matchup. Whether or not it translates into something BYU can do to post momentum over the final month or so is going to be something to watch.
The allure of the BYU Cougars has completely worn off and now everything about that program that we enjoyed through five games has now gone down the drain. Now, the Cougars are trying to right the ship and show that this season isn’t completely a lost cause when they face the Liberty Flames at home in what should be an entertaining matchup. Whether or not it translates into something BYU can do to post momentum over the final month or so is going to be something to watch.
After a 4-1 start, the Cougars have dropped consecutive games with the latest being a 52-35 loss to Arkansas at home. Things didn’t help matters when Arkansas put up 24 points in the second quarter and BYU didn’t have enough firepower on defense – surprisingly enough – to contain KJ Jefferson. Not that trying to take down the Arkansas quarterback is an easy feat of its own, but bringing in an Arkansas team that had lost three in a row coming into that game was about the worst kind of letdown for the Coutars. Jaren Hall threw for 356 yards and three touchdowns, but the key was BYU having three turnovers and looking completely lost on the defensive end.
"What's frustrating is losing the turnover battle because that's not our identity," BYU coach Kalani Sitake said. "We're focused on taking care of the football, and I didn't feel like we did well enough at that today."
BYU hasn’t been a team of balance but they needed it in the first half when Arkansas went on its run. The Cougars had just 29 yards on 11 total rushes in the first half. That can’t happen, and BYU needs to figure out how to ensure it doesn’t happen against a Liberty team that is a few plays away from being 7-0.
This Liberty squad is not the same without Malik Willis. Even at 6-1, it’s not the powerhouse club that it was a year ago. And whether that’s OK or not remains to be seen, but Liberty shouldn’t be winning games by one point over a school called Gardner-Webb. Also take into account the Flames had just 315 total yards against such a team and had the ball for 25:33 tells you all you need to know about how bad they were this game. And as 24.5-point favorites, no less. This was not a good look for this program trying to build off the success over the last couple of years.
If there’s anything to appreciate with Liberty, it’s the defensive side of the ball. They’ve allowed just 340 yards per game and only 209 of them have come through the air. Given that BYU hasn’t liked running the ball, they’ll need to in order to have a chance.
Prediction
BYU opens as 7-point favorites in this one but that’s just because the books are like me and not believing what Liberty can do in this game. Because of that, I really like the points and also am taking Liberty to pull off the upset. Liberty by 7
Betting trends
BYU is 6-17 ATS after allowing 275 rushing yards the previous game.
BYU is 5-6 ATS in its last 11 road games.
Liberty is 24-8 ATS as an underdog all-time.
Liberty is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 off an under.
Statistical leaders
BYU:
Passing: Jaren Hall -- 1,914 yards, 17 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Christopher Brooks -- 437 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: Kody Epps -- 423 yards, 6 TD
Liberty:
Passing: Kaidon Salter -- 776 yards, 6 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Dae Dae Hunter -- 608 yards, 7 TD
Receiving: Demario Douglas -- 546 yards, 5 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this BYU Cougars - Liberty Flames prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
