by Chuck Sommers
Wednesday, Feb 02, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Cintas Center, Cincinnati, OH
Where to watch: CBS Sports Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Xavier -11.5
BetMGM: Xavier -12.5
Caesars: Xavier -12
Season record
Butler: 11-10 (4-6 Big East)
No. 21 Xavier: 15-5 (5-4 Big East)
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Butler - Xavier preview, analysis and prediction
They might not be the top team in the Big East, but the Xavier Musketeers are good enough to know who they’re better than.
With that, I like them comfortably in their matchup against the Butler Bulldogs on Wednesday.
I think it’s safe to say that Xavier is not on the same wavelength as Villanova, Providence, Marquette or UConn. It might be a close run for the bottom three, but the conference is at least dictated by those four teams with the No. 21 Musketeers bringing up the rear.
That’s not to say Xavier hasn’t been a good team. The Musketeers did win for the first time in three games on Saturday, winning by 10 against a strong Creighton Bluejays team on the road. That’s fresh off a 3-point loss at home to Providence and by 11 on the road to the Golden Eagles.
Creighton is a tough place to play, and Xavier relied on a balanced scoring attack to get win No. 15 this season. Paul Scruggs had a team-high 18 points and eight rebounds, one of four starters to score at least 15 points.
Oh, and Xavier trailed 36-19 at halftime and won by 10.
"Most overrated thing in sports is the halftime score," Xavier coach Travis Steele said he wrote on the board in the locker room at halftime. "Nobody remembers if you're winning at halftime. It's why you play 40 minutes."
Xavier went on to score 29 of the first 31 points of the second half and went on to cruise. Perhaps that kind of run is why they’re not the cream of the crop in the Big East, but man, that’s some resilient stuff right there.
If you’re weary of taking Xavier after a game like that, I wouldn’t blame you. The Musketeers are 1-6 against the spread this season following three straight conference games and are 11-23 ATS over the past three seasons. They haven’t been a reliable group in that regard.
Even when they fail to cover two of their last three, Xavier is 8-20 ATS over the past three seasons. But keep in mind, Xavier has been one of the better home teams in the country at 32-9 straight up in its last 41, including 10-2 this season.
And I wouldn’t blame you for looking at Butler’s last two wins, including a 17-point victory at home against Creighton, and ride the momentum. That 3-point home win against Georgetown should’ve quieted that surge a bit, but the Bulldogs are just 4-6 ATS in conference play this season and are 3-7 ATS following a conference game this season.
Xavier has been able to rebound against the spread after a rough offensive performance; they’re 13-11 ATS the past three seasons after scoring 60 points or less the prior game and 96-69 dating back to 1997. But that was when Butler was a dominant mid-major; things don’t appear that way anymore.
I like Xavier at home after a somewhat successful road trip to keep the winning pace going against a team they should beat. Xavier by 12
Betting trends
The over is 5-0-1 in Butler's last six as an underdog.
Butler is 0-5 ATS in its last five following a straight-up win.
Xavier is 0-5 ATS following an outright win in its last five.
Xavier is 0-4 ATS in its last four as a home favorite.
Projected starting lineup
Butler:
PG: Aaron Thompson
SG: Bo Hodges
SF: Chuck Harris
PF: Bryce Nze
C: Bryce Golden
SF: Chuck Harris
PF: Bryce Nze
C: Bryce Golden
Xavier:
PG: Nate Johnson
SG: Paul Scruggs
SF: Colby Jones
PF: Jerome Hunter
C: Zach Freemantle
SF: Colby Jones
PF: Jerome Hunter
C: Zach Freemantle
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
