Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction, Preview and Odds - 02/28/2026

 

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, February 28, 2026

Venue:  Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL

Where to Watch:  ESPN+

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Sabres +195, Lightning -238; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Sabres +200, Lightning -250; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Sabres +190, Lightning -250; Over/Under:  6.5 goals

Buffalo Sabres:  33-19-6 (4th place, Atlantic Division)

Tampa Bay Lightning:  38-15-4 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

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Buffalo Sabres:  7-2-1 last 10

Tampa Bay Lightning:  8-2-0 last 10

The Sabres are entering this game with 72 points, a 33-19-6 record overall, and they are 16-11-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the New Jersey Devils in their last game, winning that one on the road 2-1, but this is also the 2nd game of a back-to-back for them with their game against the Florida Panthers still to be played on Friday night. In their game against the Devils, Peyton Krebs and Tage Thompson each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Peyton Krebs, Tage Thompson, and Bowen Byram each led the team in assists with 1 while Mattias Samuelsson led the team in shots on net in that game with 4. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 1 goal on 28 shots with 27 saves and a .964 save percentage. Their offense has scored 197 goals this season averaging 3.4 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 177 goals against them allowing 3.1 goals per game.

The Lightning are entering this game with 80 points, a 38-15-4 record overall, and they are 19-9-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Carolina Hurricanes in their last game, losing that one on the road 5-4. Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel, Dominic James, and Nikita Kucherov each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Jake Guentzel led the team in assists with 3 while Jake Guentzel, Darren Raddysh, and Dominic James each led the team in shots on net in that game with 4. Jonas Johansson was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 5 goals on 33 shots with 28 saves and a .848 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 207 goals this season averaging 3.6 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 147 goals against them allowing 2.6 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Lightning listed as a big favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Lightning have looked great in their games this season with their 38-15-4 record overall which has them right at the top of their division in the East. They have looked great on home ice too with their 19-9-0 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Sabres have looked really good in their games this season with their 33-19-6 record overall which has them in the top half of their division in the East. They have been a good road team too with their 16-11-3 road record this year. The Sabres have been rolling lately too, going 7-2-1 in their last 10 games, but they aren't in a great situation here. They are playing this game on a back-to-back and they have a tough game on Friday against the Stanley Cup Champion Panthers who are going to be desperate to get back into the playoff race. The Lightning have also been rolling in their games lately though and they are going to be in a better situation here, being at home with rest on their side. They are 8-2-0 in their last 10 games and they will be looking to bounce back as they are off a tough 5-4 loss to the Hurricanes in their last one. They didn't have their starting goaltender in that game either, so expect a much better effort from the Lightning in this one. Look for the Lightning to take advantage of a Sabres team in a bad situation here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Lightning to win this game and on the puckline.

Sabres Lightning Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Saturday, February 28, 2026 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Lightning 5 Sabres 2.

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Buffalo Sabres: 24-46 (-11.3 units) on the moneyline as a road underdog of +100 to +200. 43-58 (-4.4 units) on the moneyline in a road game where the total is 6 or more. 13-32 (-9.1 units) on the moneyline when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 24-18 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%).

Tampa Bay Lightning: 73-41 (+8.2 units) on the moneyline in home games. 42-25 (+14.6 units) on the moneyline when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). 83-40 (+20.6 units) on the moneyline against terrible defensive teams - allowing 3+ goals/game. 10-4 UNDER when playing 3 or less games in 10 days.

Buffalo Sabres:  Z. Benson (LW) Out - Upper Body. J. Greenway (LW) Out - Abdomen. C. Timmins (D) Out - Leg. J. Danforth (RW) Out - Lower Body. J. Kulich (C) Out - Ear.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  A. Cirelli (C) Day To Day - Undisclosed. N. Paul (LW) Out - Undisclosed. M. Crozier (D) Out - Abdomen.

"I didn't feel great out there, but no better way to find it than just jumping right in. I was trying to keep it as simple as I can, keep short shifts. I felt better as the game got going." - Tage Thompson after their win against the Devils in their game on Wednesday.

“We spent a lot of energy trying to come back from 3-0. When you give up three goals in the first 10 minutes, it’s never a good recipe. But I will say, the boys battled back. We started to clean it up the second half of the first period.” - Assistant Coach Rob Zettler after his team’s loss against the Hurricanes in their game on Thursday.

LW Peyton Krebs

C Tage Thompson

RW Alex Tuch

LD Mattias Samuelsson

RD Rasmus Dahlin

G Alex Lyon

LW Gage Goncalves

C Brayden Point

RW Nikita Kucherov

LD Janis Jérôme Moser

RD Darren Raddysh

G Jonas Johansson

Points: Tage Thompson (61)

Goals: Tage Thompson (31)

Assists: Rasmus Dahlin (37)

GAA: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (2.65)

Points: Nikita Kucherov (95)

Goals: Nikita Kucherov (31)

Assists: Nikita Kucherov (64)

GAA: Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.11)

Coaches:

Buffalo Sabres: Lindy Ruff (2nd season)

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (14th season)