by Rod Pearson
Friday, Nov 28, 2025
Game Time: 4:25 pm ET, Sunday, November 30, 2025
Venue: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Bills -3, Steelers +3; Over/Under: 45.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Bills -3, Steelers +3; Over/Under: 45.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Bills -3, Steelers +3; Over/Under: 46.5 points
Season Record
Buffalo Bills: 7-4 (2nd place, AFC East)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 6-5 (2nd place, AFC North)
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Recent Form
Buffalo Bills: lost their last game on the road against the Houston Texans 23-19.
Pittsburgh Steelers: lost their last game on the road against the Chicago Bears 31-28.
Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers Preview and Analysis
The Bills are entering this game with a 7-4 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 2-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Houston Texans 23-19. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 24/34 passes for 253 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 116 and 1 TD. Khalil Shakir led the receivers with 110 receiving yards on 8 receptions. Cole Bishop led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Steelers are entering this game with a 6-5 record overall and they have a 2-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-2 in their home games, 2-3 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Chicago Bears 31-28. Mason Rudolph was the starting QB and he completed 24/31 passes for 171 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Kenneth Gainwell led the team in rushing yards with 92. Calvin Austin III led the receivers with 36 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Jalen Ramsey led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while T. J. Watt led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Bills vs Steelers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Steelers listed as a 3 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Steelers have looked good in their games this season with their 6-5 record overall which has them right near the top of the AFC North. They have looked better on their home field too with their 3-2 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Bills have looked good in their games this season with their 7-4 record overall which has them right near the top of the AFC East. They haven't been a good road team though with their 2-3 road record this year. They are off a 23-19 loss to the Texans in their last one and their offense has looked a lot different in their road games too. Their defense has also been a big issue for them this season and they haven't been able to stop the run in a lot of their games. The Steelers are off a 31-28 loss to the Bears in their last one and they have looked terrible in their games lately, starting the season 4-1 and blowing that huge division lead. They are still right in the division race though and they have a great opportunity to pick up a win at home against a Bills team that has been bad on the road all year. Rodgers could be back for this game too so that will give the Steelers offense a boost here, and they have been rushing a lot better in their games lately too. The Steelers still have a lot of talent on their defense too so look for them to show up at home with a chance to take the division lead back. The best way to place a bet here is on the Steelers to cover the spread in this game.
Bills Steelers Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 30, 2025 (4:25 pm ET start time) is Steelers 20 Bills 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Buffalo Bills: 1-7 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game. 4-10 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 yards/play or more. 6-11 ATS on the road against conference opponents. 10-5 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.6-3 UNDER after a loss by 6 or less points.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 7-4 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less. 6-3 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game. 10-5 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more. 6-1 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.
Key Injuries
Buffalo Bills: J. Bosa (DL) Injured - Wrist. D. Dawkins (OT) Injured - Concussion. C. Samuel (WR) Injured - Elbow. D. Jones (DL) Injured - Illness. P. Mathis (DL) Injured - Shoulder. J. Allen (QB) Injured - Elbow. T. Bernard (LB) Injured - Elbow. R. Gilliam (FB) Injured - Knee. J. Palmer (WR) Injured - Ankle. D. Kincaid (TE) Injured - Hamstring. S. Brown (OT) Injured - Shoulder. T. Grable (OT) Injured - Concussion. M. Hairston (CB) Injured - Concussion.
Pittsburgh Steelers: A. Rodgers (QB) Injured - Wrist. C. Heyward (DL) Injured - Ankle. T. Watt (LB) Injured - NIR - Rest. J. Smith (TE) Injured - NIR - Rest. I. Seumalo (OG) Injured - NIR - Rest. A. Highsmith (LB) Injured - Pectoral. D. Metcalf (WR) Injured - Ankle. B. Skowronek (WR) Injured - Shoulder. J. Porter Jr. (CB) Injured - Hip. B. Jones (OT) Injured - Neck. D. Harmon (DL) Injured - Knee.
Notable Quotes
"When they hit our quarterback 12 times, I don’t like that. I don’t like that stat at all. It’s just not a healthy way to play and it’s not a good way to keep our quarterback healthy for the rest of the season. We’ve got to play better.” - Sean McDermott after his team’s loss against the Texans in their last game.
“There's never been panic here. We've been Pittsburgh Steelers long enough to know we've been behind, down in the division and up. It's a natural ebb and flow of the season. I'm very confident in our guys to keep fighting and end up on top.” - Mason Rudolph after their loss against the Bears in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Buffalo Bills
WR Cooks, Brandin
WR Palmer, Joshua
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Knox, Dawson
QB Allen, Josh
RB Cook, James
FB Gilliam, Reggie
Pittsburgh Steelers
WR Metcalf, DK
WR Austin III, Calvin
TE Smith, Jonnu
TE Washington, Darnell
QB Rudolph, Mason
RB Warren, Jaylen
Statistical Leaders
Buffalo Bills
Passing: Josh Allen (2,709)
Rushing: James Cook (1,084)
Receiving: Khalil Shakir (564)
Touchdowns: Josh Allen (10)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Passing: Aaron Rodgers (1,969)
Rushing: Jaylen Warren (604)
Receiving: DK Metcalf (573)
Touchdowns: DK Metcalf (6)
Coaches:
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (9th season)
Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Tomlin (19th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
