by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Nov 23, 2021
Game time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Where to watch: NBC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Bills -4.5
BetMGM: Bills -4
Caesars: Bills -4.5
Season record
Bills: 6-4 (2nd place, AFC East)
Saints: 5-5 (2nd place, NFC South)
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Bills - Saints preview and analysis
Last week
Bills: lost 41-15 vs. Colts
Saints: lost 40-29 at Eagles
There may be no team in need of a short week to throw Sunday in the toilet than the Buffalo Bills.
They'll get the chance to rebound on Thanksgiving when they visit the New Orleans Saints for a primetime matchup on Thursday.
You look around the league on Sunday and see plenty of teams that shouldn't have lost the way they did, but no team had more of an eye-popping experience than the Bills did at home against the Indianapolis Colts.
Not only did the Bills lose 41-15 and get humiliated by a pedestrian Colts team at home, but the Bills find themselves a half-game back of the New England Patriots for first place in the AFC East by way of the Pats' latest surge.
The Bills had a season-low 307 total yards and fell behind 24-7 at halftime. More importantly, the Bills had no answer for Colts running back Jonathan Taylor as he went off for 185 yards and four touchdowns on 32 carries.
Any time you're in a position where Carson Wentz doesn't have to do anything outside of not turning the ball over, you're doing something right. The Bills just happen to be doing a lot of wrong right now.
"We're really good football team when we don't bite ourselves in the butt. What we put on the field today is not who we are," said Bills quarterback Josh Allen. "We need to do a better job on all fronts. There's no way around it, but at the same time, it's not panic mode."
Allen was kept in check for 209 yards and two touchdowns to Stefon Diggs, but threw two interceptions in one of his worst starts of the season. Since that dominant 38-20 victory on Sunday Night Football over the Kansas City Chiefs on Oct. 10, the Bills have alternated wins and losses over the next five games (2-3) and have gone 1-3-1 against the spread in that run.
But while the Bills are failing to push for more ground in the AFC East, the Saints have failed to capitalize on any momentum of their own. The Saints lost their third straight game Sunday in a 40-29 loss at the Philadelphia Eagles.
New Orleans is starting to realize how much they miss Jameis Winston; if not for the yardage, but the talent alone at the quarterback position. Trevor Siemian is a fine backup quarterback but as a stopgap for an offense that should be potent, it's not working. Siemian threw for 214 yards and three touchdowns, but also threw two interceptions.
In a game where the Saints were only outgained 380-323, three turnovers hurt the cause and the Eagles still put up 40 points by way of three rushing touchdowns from quarterback Jalen Hurts.
"Obviosuly, we didn't do the things necessary to win in every phase," Saints coach Sean Payton said. "Turnovers were significant. We struggled to defend their run game. And our return game was just average. All of us have to do a better job."
Prediction
Process of elimination time. Which team is coming in better off than where they were Sunday? The answer by a narrow margin might be the Bills. Buffalo is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four following a straight-up loss and the favorite has covered the last five meetings. Even though the Bills are traveling, it's in a dome and the last time the Bills were in a dome on Thanksgiving, Allen torched the Dallas Cowboys defense. If New Orleans can't stop Hurts, do we really expect them to stop Allen? Moneyline is a fine play here. Bills by 14
Betting trends
The Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four following a straight-up loss.
The Bills are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 when allowing less than 150 passing yards in the previous week.
The Saints have won six straight ATS following a spread loss.
The over is 12-3-1 in the Saints’ last 16 as a home underdog.
Players to watch
Bills: Look for Emmanuel Sanders to get a chance to shine against the Saints. The last time he faced them, Sanders had seven receptions for 157 yards and a touchdown as a member of the San Francisco 49ers.
Saints: Since returning to the Saints, Mark Ingram has been a reliable asset yet again. He had 113 yards from scrimmage last week and is trying for his third straight game of that criteria.
Statistical leaders
Bills:
Passing: Josh Allen -- 2,811 yards, 21 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: Devin Singletary -- 415 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Stefon Diggs -- 773 yards, 6 TD
Defense: Jordan Poyer -- 4 INT
Saints:
Passing: Trevor Siemian -- 920 yards, 8 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Alvin Kamara -- 530 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Alvin Kamara -- 310 yards, 4 TD
Defense: Marcus Davenport -- 5.5 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
