Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 12/1/2022

Time: 8:15 p.m. ET

Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA

Where to watch: Prime Video

DraftKings: Bills -5.5

FanDuel: Bills -5.5

BetMGM: Bills -5.5

Caesars: Bills -5.5

Bills: 8-3 (2nd place, AFC East)

Patriots: 6-5 (Last place, AFC East)

Bills: won 28-25 at Lions (Thanksgiving)

Patriots: lost 33-26 at Vikings (Thanksgiving)

It would appear that all the Buffalo Bills need is to relocate to Detroit and play all their home games there. Because clearly there is a home field advantage for Buffalo that was never there for the Detroit Lions, but alas Buffalo is right back where it should be which is at the top of the AFC standings with five games to go. Two wins in a row for Buffalo now suddenly sets the stage for what should be a really intriguing division showdown against the New England Patriots on Thursday.

Let's think about this for a second. for all this talk about the NFC East being such an amazing division, one filled with teams that don't want to go away and have every reason to think that they can compete for a playoff spot, we're still not talking about the AFC the way that we should. Here's how it goes down: Buffalo and the Miami Dolphins are tied atop the division with five games to go. Buffalo has all the capabilities in the world to run the table and win the division and host a playoff game. The Miami Dolphins are not going away anytime soon. The New York Jets do not appear to be going away anytime soon. Buffalo, however, can officially put the Patriots away for good with a win on Thursday.

Maybe I shouldn't have said officially, because there is still a lot of football left to be played for the Patriots to make a run here. But if you're Buffalo, you have to feel pretty good about how these last two weeks have gone. You get relocated because of a giant snowstorm and you come back with two straight wins in a completely different stadium and find a way to win both of them. The latter game against Detroit went down to the wire, in another instance where the lions might be a whole lot better than I think anybody gave credit for but nevertheless, it was a big performance from Josh Allen throwing for 253 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 78 and another score.

And just when it seemed like Detroit was going to come back and at least force overtime, Allen is there putting a dime into the chest of Stefon Diggs and suddenly the game is over. Buffalo suddenly with two straight wins is now tied atop the division with the dolphins, who already have that one win over Buffalo from earlier in the season. Without question, this is going to be a big game for Buffalo. If they somehow falter, the bills could be in trouble. Not that I'm saying the dolphins will go undefeated and run the table and win the division, but Buffalo cannot afford to play on the road when it has every advantage to get back to the AFC championship game.

Taking down the Patriots would be the perfect nail in the coffin for Buffalo. New England did miss a golden opportunity on Thanksgiving against the Minnesota Vikings. Because not only did New England have a lead at one point going into the fourth quarter, but the Patriots wasted the best performance in a Pro Football uniform from quarterback Mac Jones. Jones completed 28 of 39 passes for 352 yards and two touchdowns, making all of us realize that this was a guy that couldn't even complete 35 yards about a month and a half ago. And now he's putting out performances like this.

That game told me two different things. Number one, Jones can throw the football. And Jones can make big plays and Jones can find his receivers. Any of this conversation about him not being able to throw the football and be a serviceable quarterback need to stop. That was a good Vikings defense that he almost beat and for him to put on a performance like that on the road, on a short week, on Thanksgiving on national television, the Patriots still have a very good quarterback in their midst. #2, the Patriots still don't have enough. For them to waste this performance and for them to blow a golden opportunity to defeat one of the top teams in the NFC is a huge gaffe for New England. There's no way the Patriots should have lost this game but the fact that they did set up all the problems going into this week.

I have no idea if this is going to result in the home crowd doing what it does best in Foxboro, but they need to bring it on Thursday because this is going to be probably New England’s last chance to really bring it home and win a game that they need to win. But at the end of the day, if you go against Josh Allen, that is on you. Bills by 10 

Bills are 10-2 ATS off a non-conference game the last three seasons.

Bills are 55-30 ATS after failing to cover in 4 or 5 of their last 6 since 1992.

Patriots are 50-29 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 since 1992.

Passing: Josh Allen -- 3,183 yards, 23 TD, 11 INT

Rushing: Josh Allen -- 561 yards, 5 TD

Receiving: Stefon Diggs -- 1,110 yards, 9 TD

Defense: Von Miller -- 8 sacks

Passing: Mac Jones -- 1,768 yards, 6 TD, 7 INT

Rushing: Rhamondre Stevenson -- 680 yards, 4 TD

Receiving: Jakobi Meyers -- 571 yards, 3 TD

Defense: Matt Judon -- 13 sacks