by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Wednesday, Dec 22, 2021
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, December 26, 2021
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Bills +2.5, Patriots -2.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Bills +2.5, Patriots -2.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Bills +2.5, Patriots -2.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Season Record
Buffalo Bills: 8-6 (2nd place, AFC East)
New England Patriots: 9-5 (1st place, AFC East)
Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Al McMordie has had 9 straight winning NFL seasons (2012-2020)! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Buffalo Bills: won at home on Dec. 19 against the Carolina Panthers 31-14.
New England Patriots: lost on the road on Dec. 18 against the Indianapolis Colts 27-17.
Buffalo Bills Analysis
The Bills are coming into this game with an 8-6 record overall and they are 4-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 5th divisional matchup of the year and they are currently 3-1 in their division games this season, with that 1 loss coming at home to the Patriots just a few weeks ago. They have lost 2 of their last 3 games but are coming into this one off of a win in their last game which snapped a 2 game losing streak that they were on. Their 2 losses in that span were against the Patriots and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers while their win came against the Carolina Panthers in their last game. Josh Allen completed 19/34 passes for 210 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. Devin Singletary led the team in rushing with 86 yards and 1 touchdown on 22 carries. Gabriel Davis led the receivers with 85 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 receptions while Stefon Diggs caught the other touchdown pass in that one. Dane Jackson led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones. Efe Obada led the defense in sacks in that game with 2 while A.J. Klein came up with the only interception for them in that one. They have scored 394 points in their 14 games this season averaging 28.1 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 243 points against them allowing 17.4 PPG. Their offense is averaging 377.9 YPG while their defense is allowing 287.9 YPG.
New England Patriots Analysis
The Patriots are coming into this match with a 9-5 record overall and they are 3-4 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 5th divisional matchup on their schedule this year and they are currently 3-1 in their division games this season. They have won 7 of their last 8 games but they are coming into this one off of a loss in their last game which snapped a 7 game winning streak that they were on. Their 7 wins in that span were against the New York Jets, the Los Angeles Chargers, the Carolina Panthers, the Cleveland Browns, the Atlanta Falcons, the Tennessee Titans, and the Buffalo Bills while their loss came against the Indianapolis Colts in their last game. Mac Jones completed 26/45 passes for 299 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in that one. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team in rushing with 36 yards on 10 carries. Hunter Henry led the receivers with 77 yards and 2 touchdowns on 6 receptions while Jakobi Meyers also had 6 receptions for 44 yards. Devin McCourty led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. Deatrich Wise Jr. recorded the only sack in that game while McCourty came up with the only interception for them in that one. They have scored 367 points in their 14 games this season averaging 26.2 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 227 points against them allowing 16.2 PPG. Their offense is averaging 347.9 YPG while their defense is allowing 307.5 YPG.
Bills vs Patriots Prediction
The Bills are coming into this game as a 2.5 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bills played much better in their last game and Josh Allen was moving the offense much better than he had been in their recent games. They just lost to the Patriots less than 3 weeks ago and that is still fresh in their minds. They have had this game circled on their schedule and they will get up for this game. The Patriots finally had their winning streak snapped in their last game and now the momentum is on Buffalo's side here as this will be a big revenge game for them and they need to win this to win the division. The Patriots have also been bad at home this season and have a losing record in their home games. The best bet to place in this game is on the Bills to cover the spread here and to win this game straight up on the moneyline.
Bills Patriots Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 26, 2021 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Bills 28 Patriots 21.
Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Buffalo Bills New England Patriots prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NFL predictions and previews.
NFL Betting Trends
Buffalo Bills: 12-6 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 29-19 ATS in all games. 10-5 ATS as an underdog. 6-2 ATS as a road underdog. 14-8 ATS in road games. 23-11 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest. 7-3 ATS off a non-conference game. 22-12 ATS in games played on turf. 15-8 ATS off 1 or more straight overs. 10-5 ATS off a home win.
New England Patriots: 4-8 O/U in games where the line is +3 to -3. 18-28 O/U in all games. 14-21 O/U as a favorite. 10-21 O/U in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 1-10 O/U after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games. 36-57 O/U off a road loss. 7-12 O/U after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread.
Key Injuries
Buffalo Bills: C. Beasley (WR) Out indefinitely - Illness. E. Sanders (WR) Ques Sun - Knee injury. D. Jackson (CB) Ques Sun - Stinger.
New England Patriots: K. Bourne (WR) Out indefinitely - Illness. J. Bledsoe (S) Ques Sun - Undisclosed injury. J. Uche (LB) Ques Sun - Concussion. D. Harris (RB) Ques Sun - Hamstring injury.
Notable Quotes
"It wasn't so much of proving the doubters wrong, because there's always going to be doubters. It was just doing what we needed to do to go 1-0." - Devin Singletary on their win against the Panthers in their last game.
"I've said it like five times, I can say it another five times. We didn't do anything well enough to win tonight." - Bill Belichick on his team’s loss against the Colts in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Buffalo Bills
WR Davis, Gabriel
WR Diggs, Stefon
WR BEASLEY, COLE
TE Knox, Dawson
QB Allen, Josh
RB Singletary, Devin
FB Gilliam, Reggie
New England Patriots
WR Agholor, Nelson
WR Meyers, Jakobi
TE Smith, Jonnu
QB Jones, Mac
RB Harris, Damien
FB Johnson, Jakob
Statistical Leaders
Buffalo Bills
Passing: J. Allen (3734)
Rushing: D. Singletary (633)
Receiving: S. Diggs (1007)
Touchdowns: D. Knox (8)
New England Patriots
Passing: M. Jones (3168)
Rushing: D. Harris (754)
Receiving: K. Bourne (667)
Touchdowns: D. Harris (9)
Coaches:
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (5th season)
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick (22nd season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
