by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Dec 09, 2025
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, December 14, 2025
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Bills -1.5, Patriots +1.5; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Bills -1, Patriots +1; Over/Under: 49.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Bills -1, Patriots +1; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Season Record
Buffalo Bills: 9-4 (2nd place, AFC East)
New England Patriots: 11-2 (1st place, AFC East)
Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Nelly’s Sports is on a HOT STREAK in the NFL on a 5-0 NFL RUN for +$5,000 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.
Recent Form
Buffalo Bills: won their last game at home against the Cincinnati Bengals 39-34.
New England Patriots: won their last game at home against the New York Giants 33-15.
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Preview and Analysis
The Bills are entering this game with a 9-4 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 6-1 in their home games, 3-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Cincinnati Bengals 39-34. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 22/28 passes for 251 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 80. Dawson Knox led the receivers with 93 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Jordan Poyer led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Christian Benford led the defense in sacks with 1. Christian Benford and A.J. Epenesa each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
The Patriots are entering this game with an 11-2 record overall and they have a 3-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-2 in their home games, 6-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the New York Giants 33-15. Drake Maye was the starting QB and he completed 24/31 passes for 282 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. TreVeyon Henderson led the team in rushing yards with 67. Hunter Henry led the receivers with 73 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Harold Landry III led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Harold Landry III and Elijah Ponder each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Bills vs Patriots Prediction
The current betting odds have the Patriots listed as a 1.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Patriots have looked great in their games this season with their 11-2 record overall which has them right at the top of the AFC East with one of the best records in the entire NFL. They have looked great on their home field too with their 5-2 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Bills have looked really good in their games this season with their 9-4 record overall which has them right near the top of the AFC East. They haven't been a great road team though with their 3-3 road record this year. They are off a 39-34 win over the Bengals in their last one and they have been starting to roll again in their games lately, but their defense has still been a big issue. They have been giving up a ton of points in their games and even in their win over the Bengals, they were trailing early and needed to come back down 10 points late. The Patriots are off a 33-15 win over the Giants in their last one and they have been rolling over teams all season. They are also coming out of their bye week so they have had extra time to prepare for this game, and they haven't really shown any weaknesses lately. Their offense has been rolling with Drake Maye looking like the next Tom Brady, and the defense has looked a lot better lately too. The Bills need to win this game to keep their hopes for the division alive, but the Patriots already pulled off the win in Buffalo this year and will be looking to lock up the AFC East here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Patriots to cover the spread in this game.
Bills Patriots Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, December 14, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Patriots 27 Bills 24.
Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Buffalo Bills New England Patriots prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NFL predictions and previews.
NFL Betting Trends
Buffalo Bills: 13-7 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 14-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 11-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. 6-3 UNDER revenging a loss against an opponent. 10-3 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 yards/play or more.
New England Patriots: 3-8 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less. 4-9 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 7-13 ATS in home games. 10-4 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3.
Key Injuries
Buffalo Bills: M. Trubisky (QB) Injured - Illness. C. Benford (CB) Injured - Toe. J. Bosa (DL) Injured - Hamstring. T. Bernard (LB) Injured - Elbow. D. Knox (TE) Injured - Personal. J. Palmer (WR) Injured - Ankle. D. Kincaid (TE) Injured - Knee. S. Brown (OT) Injured - Shoulder. C. Bishop (S) Injured - Calf.
New England Patriots: R. Spillane (LB) Injured - Foot. H. Landry III (LB) Injured - Knee. K. Tonga (DL) Injured - Chest. V. Lowe (OT) Injured - Abdomen. B. Schooler (S) Injured - Ankle. C. Barmore (DL) Injured - NIR - Other. T. Jennings (RB) Injured - Concussion. J. Wilson (C) Injured - Ankle.
Notable Quotes
“It’s fun to see your brother who does his job and can make plays for your team in big moments of the game. It’s so awesome. He deserves every bit of it.” - Josh Allen after their win against the Bengals in their last game.
“Just trying to be the face, trying to be the conductor. Trying to want the pressure. You want the ball in my hands.” - Drake Maye after their win against the Giants in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Buffalo Bills
WR Davis, Gabe
WR Shavers, Tyrell
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Knox, Dawson
QB Allen, Josh
RB Cook, James
FB Gilliam, Reggie
New England Patriots
WR Boutte, Kayshon
WR Hollins, Mack
WR Diggs, Stefon
TE Henry, Hunter
QB Maye, Drake
RB Henderson, TreVeyon
FB Westover, Jack
Statistical Leaders
Buffalo Bills
Passing: Josh Allen (3,083)
Rushing: James Cook (1,308)
Receiving: Khalil Shakir (585)
Touchdowns: Josh Allen (12)
New England Patriots
Passing: Drake Maye (3,412)
Rushing: TreVeyon Henderson (625)
Receiving: Stefon Diggs (705)
Touchdowns: TreVeyon Henderson (6)
Coaches:
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (9th season)
New England Patriots: Mike Vrabel (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
