by Rod Pearson
Friday, Nov 06, 2026
Game Time: 8:15 pm ET, Monday, November 9, 2026
Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Where to Watch: ESPN, ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Bills -3, Vikings +3; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Bills -3, Vikings +3; Over/Under: 44.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Bills -3, Vikings +3; Over/Under: 44 points
Season Record
Buffalo Bills: 6-1 (1st place, AFC East)
Minnesota Vikings: 6-1 (1st place, NFC North)
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Recent Form
Buffalo Bills: won their last game at home against the Baltimore Ravens 36-10.
Minnesota Vikings: lost their last game on the road against the Detroit Lions 19-15.
Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings Preview and Analysis
The Bills are entering this game with a 6-1 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 3-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Baltimore Ravens 36-10. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 21/34 passes for 289 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 80 and 1 TD. Dalton Kincaid led the receivers with 86 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Terrel Bernard and Geno Stone each led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles while Landon Jackson, Greg Rousseau, T.J. Parker, and Cole Bishop each led the defense in sacks with 1. Davison Igbinosun came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Vikings are entering this game with a 6-1 record overall and they have a 2-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 3-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Detroit Lions 19-15. Kyler Murray was the starting QB and he completed 17/29 passes for 210 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Kyler Murray led the team in rushing yards with 35. Jordan Addison led the receivers with 66 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Josh Metellus led the defense in that game with 13 solo tackles while Andrew Van Ginkel led the defense in sacks with 2.5. James Pierre came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Bills vs Vikings Prediction
The current betting odds have the Bills listed as a 3 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bills have looked great in their games this season with their 6-1 record overall which has them right at the top of the AFC East. They have been a great road team too with their 3-0 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Vikings have looked great in their games this season with their 6-1 record overall which has them right at the top of the NFC North. They have looked great on their home field too with their 3-0 home record this season. The Vikings were the last undefeated team left in the NFL before losing their 1st game last week. They are coming off a 19-15 loss to the Lions in their last one and their defense still looked good in that one, but that Lions offense was just too much for them in the end. They do have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but they also have one of the worst offenses and they have had trouble putting up points all year. That isn't going to get any better in this game with Wentz now starting at QB. They already had their hands full on defense with that Lions offense last week and they aren't getting a break here either with the Bills having one of the best offenses in the NFL. The Vikings also beat up on a lot of bad teams to start the season, but now they have a really tough stretch of schedule coming up and they are going to start coming back down to Earth. The Bills have been rolling though, looking like one of the best teams in the NFL, and they are coming off a 36-10 win over the Ravens in their last one. The Bills have the talent on offense to do to the Vikings defense what the Lions did a week ago, and the Vikings haven't really shown anything on offense all year to be trusted to go toe-to-toe with the Bills here, even with the Bills not having a great defense. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bills to cover the spread in this game.
Bills Vikings Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Monday, November 9, 2026 (8:15 pm ET start time) is Bills 27 Vikings 16.
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NFL Betting Trends
Buffalo Bills: 13-5 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 12-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 7-0 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season. 22-16 UNDER against NFC North division opponents.
Minnesota Vikings: 0-4 ATS off a loss against a division rival. 6-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 2-7 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game. 10-2 UNDER after playing a division game. 13-3 UNDER after playing their last game on the road.
Key Injuries
Buffalo Bills: D. Dawkins (OT) Injured - Rib. B. Chubb (LB) Injured - Chest. T. Shavers (WR) Injured - Knee. D. Moore (WR) Injured - Shoulder. E. Oliver (DL) Injured - Knee. T. Johnson (RB) Injured - Illness. G. Gaines (DL) Injured - Calf. J. Palmer (WR) Injured - Hamstring. A. Anderson (OG) Injured - Ankle. D. Alford (CB) Injured - Ankle. D. Kincaid (TE) Injured - Chest. S. Brown (OT) Injured - Back. J. Andreessen (LB) Injured - Knee. K. Coleman (WR) Injured - Shoulder. J. Hancock (CB) Injured - Hamstring. T. Sanders (DL) Injured - Shoulder. T. Parker (LB) Injured - Knee. A. Reed-Adams (OG) Injured - Back.
Minnesota Vikings: I. Rodgers (CB) Injured - Ankle. K. Murray (QB) Injured - Hamstring. T. Jackson (S) Injured - Quad. J. Jennings (WR) Injured - Calf. A. Van Ginkel (LB) Injured - Chest. C. Darrisaw (OT) Injured - Shoulder. J. Ward (S) Injured - Knee. J. Golday (LB) Injured - Calf. D. Claiborne (RB) Injured - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“I mean, look, with Josh, we’re spoiled, right?” - Joe Brady after his team’s win against the Ravens in their last game.
“We still had all three timeouts and we have total trust and confidence in our defense. We thought we could get a stop and get the ball back.” - Kevin O’Connell after his team’s loss against the Lions in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Buffalo Bills
WR Coleman, Keon
WR Moore, DJ
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Kincaid, Dalton
QB Allen, Josh
RB Cook III, James
Minnesota Vikings
WR Jefferson, Justin
WR Addison, Jordan
WR Jennings, Jauan
TE Hockenson, T.J.
QB Murray, Kyler
RB Jones Sr., Aaron
FB Bredeson, Max
Statistical Leaders
Buffalo Bills
Passing: Josh Allen (1,793)
Rushing: James Cook III (707)
Receiving: Dalton Kincaid (401)
Touchdowns: Josh Allen (9)
Minnesota Vikings
Passing: Kyler Murray (1,022)
Rushing: Aaron Jones Sr. (458)
Receiving: Justin Jefferson (335)
Touchdowns: Justin Jefferson (4)
Coaches:
Buffalo Bills: Joe Brady (1st season)
Minnesota Vikings: Kevin O'Connell (5th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
