by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Oct 07, 2021
Game time: 8:20 p.m. ET, October 10, 2021
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Where to watch: NBC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Chiefs -2.5
BetMGM: Chiefs -3
Caesars: Chiefs -2.5
Season record
Bills: 3-1 (1st place, AFC East)
Chiefs: 2-2 (Last place, AFC West)
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Bills - Chiefs preview and analysis
Recent form
Bills: won 40-0 vs. Texans in Week 4
Chiefs: won 42-30 at Eagles in Week 4
I’m not quite sure what part of the Twilight Zone we’ve ended up in with the Kansas City Chiefs in last place through the first quarter of this season.
But man, has it been an odd start -- dating back to the Super Bowl, really -- for the two-time defending AFC champions and Super Bowl champs from two seasons ago.
The Chiefs return home in an AFC Championship Game rematch on a Sunday Night Football matchup when they host Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
Kansas City is coming off a 12-point win on the road against the struggling Philadelphia Eagles, but things didn’t look to be a struggle for Philly last week. The Chiefs’ defense could not stop Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (387 yards, two touchdowns) and let Devonta Smith cross the 100-yard mark for the first time as a pro receiver.
Kansas City’s defense has been a major struggle point this season. The unit can’t get to the opposing quarterback, the corners are not good at man-to-man, and Tyrann Mathieu is left all alone to be the last line of defense. The Chiefs are giving up 31.3 points per game and 437.8 yards per contest. The Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers have proven that to be true.
Fortunately, there’s a guy named Patrick Mahomes that’s been able to keep things close with the offense. Mahomes threw for 278 yards and five touchdowns last week to become the fifth quarterback with at least three touchdown passes in each of his team’s first four games of a season all-time.
Tyreek Hill became the fifth player ever with five games of 180 yards or more in a receiver’s first six seasons. Hill had 186 yards and caught three of Mahomes’ touchdown passes.
The Chiefs are going to need Mahomes to be at his best to avoid a third loss in four games, because the Bills have figured things out since their Week 1 loss at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bills are coming off a 40-point rout of the Houston Texans in which the Buffalo defense picked off Davis Mills four times and forced five turnovers overall.
Buffalo lost 38-24 at Arrowhead in which Allen threw 48 times for 287 yards and two touchdowns, while also running for 87. Buffalo’s defense just couldn’t stop Mahomes’ 325 yards and three touchdowns. Travis Kelce also went God mode with 13 catches for 182 yards and two touchdowns on Jan. 24.
This is a different Allen coming to town facing a weakened Chiefs defense in primetime come opening kickoff. Allen had 248 yards, a touchdown and an interception last week, with Stefon Diggs reeling in 114 of those yards.
Prediction
The Steelers were able to stifle Allen by using that pass dangerous pass rush. If you give Allen too much time and allow him to get out of the pocket and extend the play, he will torch secondaries. I don’t trust the Chiefs defense yet, and Buffalo’s defense will make enough happen to keep the Bills in it until the end, where Allen’s magic will be the key against the former MVP. Bills by 4
Betting trends
The Bills are 5-1 against the spread in their last six as a road dog.
Buffalo is 7-0 ATS when allowing 99 rushing yards or less in consecutive games.
The over is 8-2 in Bills games after scoring 30 or more in three straight games.
The Chiefs are 28-38 ATS against AFC East teams since 1992.
Kansas City is 1-11 ATS since 1992 after consecutive games of 175 rushing yards or more.
Players to watch
Bills: Buffalo appears to have a running game in tow with Zack Moss and Devin Singletary, the latter especially. Singletary had 79 rushing yards last week and has 80 yards from scrimmage in three of four games this season.
Chiefs: Defensive end Mike Danna had two sacks against the Eagles last week and is l booking for a third straight game with a sack. Not many bright spots on the Chiefs defense, but Danna is certainly one.
Statistical leaders
Bills:
Passing: Josh Allen -- 1,055 yards, 9 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Devin Singletary -- 259 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Stefon Diggs -- 305 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Micah Hyde -- 2 INT
Chiefs:
Passing: Patrick Mahomes -- 1,218 yards, 14 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Clyde Edwards-Helaire -- 291 yards
Receiving: Tyreek Hill -- 453 yards, 4 TD
Defense: Tyrann Mathieu -- 2 INT
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
