by Rod Pearson
Monday, Nov 04, 2024
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, November 10, 2024
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Bills -5, Colts +5; Over/Under: 47 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Bills -4.5, Colts +4.5; Over/Under: 47 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Bills -4.5, Colts +4.5; Over/Under: 47 points
Season Record
Buffalo Bills: 7-2 (1st place, AFC East)
Indianapolis Colts: 4-5 (2nd place, AFC South)
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Recent Form
Buffalo Bills: won their last game at home against the Miami Dolphins 30-27.
Indianapolis Colts: lost their last game on the road against the Minnesota Vikings 21-13.
Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts Preview and Analysis
The Bills are entering this game with a 7-2 record overall and they have a 3-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 3-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Miami Dolphins 30-27. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 25/39 passes for 235 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 44. Ray Davis led the receivers with 70 receiving yards on 2 receptions and 1 TD. Damar Hamlin led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Greg Rousseau led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Colts are entering this game with a 4-5 record overall and they have a 1-3 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 1-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Minnesota Vikings 21-13. Joe Flacco was the starting QB and he completed 16/27 passes for 179 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jonathan Taylor led the team in rushing yards with 48. Josh Downs led the receivers with 60 receiving yards on 6 receptions. E. J. Speed led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Grover Stewart led the defense in sacks with 2. Nick Cross and Zaire Franklin each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Bills vs Colts Prediction
The current betting odds have the Bills listed as a 5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bills have looked great in their games this season with their 7-2 record overall which has them leading the AFC East with one of the best records in the entire NFL. They are coming off a tight win against the Dolphins in their last one, but that was a tough divisional game against a much healthier Dolphins team. The Bills have blown out many opponents this season and their offense has been rolling in a lot of those games. Meanwhile, the Colts haven't looked great in their games this season with their 4-5 record overall which has them in 2nd place of the AFC South, but they are still out of the division race for now. They are coming off another loss in their last one, losing on the road to the Vikings, and they have had problems on offense all season, needing to make a switch to Joe Flacco recently. Flacco has looked good in his few games for the Colts this season, but he didn't look great against a better Vikings defense and the Bills also have a good defense that will cause problems for them here. The Colts defense has also been really up and down this year and the Bills have an offense that can run away with this game if they get going. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bills to cover the spread in this game.
Bills Colts Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, November 10, 2024 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Bills 31 Colts 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Buffalo Bills: 6-12 ATS off a home win. 4-11 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins. 2-7 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. 16-5 UNDER in road games. 10-2 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 8-4 UNDER after a win by 6 or less points.
Indianapolis Colts: 3-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 6-2 1H ATS in November games. 4-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. 9-5 UNDER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more. 5-0 1H UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5.
Key Injuries
Buffalo Bills: T. Bernard (LB) Questionable - Ankle. R. Gilliam (FB) Out - Hip. C. Samuel (WR) Questionable - Pectoral. C. Benford (CB) Questionable - Wrist. A. Cooper (WR) Questionable - Wrist. Q. Morris (TE) Injured - Shoulder. D. Knox (TE) Injured - Ankle. D. Hamlin (SAF) Injured - Ankle. T. Rapp (SAF) Injured - Foot. A. Anderson (T) Injured - Non-Injury. D. Williams (LB) Injured - Knee. D. Kincaid (TE) Injured - Collarbone. S. Brown (T) Injured - Wrist. D. Smoot (DE) Injured - Groin. B. Codrington (DB) Injured - Hip. D. Jones (DT) Injured - Foot. M. Hollins (WR) Injured - Shoulder. J. Allen (QB) Injured - Hand. T. Johnson (CB) Injured - Forearm.
Indianapolis Colts: B. Raimann (T) Out - Concussion. C. Lammons (CB) Injured - Finger. K. Paye (DE) Injured - Hamstring. A. Richardson (QB) Injured - Wrist. G. Avery (DE) Injured - Foot. M. Pittman (WR) Injured - Back. J. Downs (WR) Injured - Toe. R. Kelly (C) Injured - Calf. B. Smith (T) Injured - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“I think it’s a great example of mental toughness. I think it’s a great example of perseverance, resilience, And for young kids out there. Here’s a player that was under the microscope pretty darn hard. And we brought a player in here to compete with him midseason and he didn’t back down. ... And I couldn’t be more proud of him and what he did today.” - Sean McDermott after his team’s win against the Dolphins in their last game.
“Coming in here against a team like this is going to be difficult but I don’t think you ever anticipate something like that.” - Joe Flacco after their loss against the Vikings in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Buffalo Bills
WR Coleman, Keon
WR Hollins, Mack
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Kincaid, Dalton
QB Allen, Josh
RB Cook, James
FB Gilliam, Reggie
Indianapolis Colts
WR Pierce, Alec
WR Pittman Jr., Michael
WR Downs, Josh
TE Alie-Cox, Mo
QB Flacco, Joe
RB Taylor, Jonathan
Statistical Leaders
Buffalo Bills
Passing: J. Allen (2001)
Rushing: J. Cook (496)
Receiving: K. Shakir (471)
Touchdowns: J. Cook (8)
Indianapolis Colts
Passing: A. Richardson (958)
Rushing: J. Taylor (502)
Receiving: A. Pierce (435)
Touchdowns: J. Taylor (5)
Coaches:
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (8th season)
Indianapolis Colts: Shane Steichen (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
