by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2025
Game Time: 8:15 pm ET, Thursday, November 20, 2025
Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Where to Watch: Prime Video
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Bills -5.5, Texans +5.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Bills -5.5, Texans +5.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Bills -5.5, Texans +5.5; Over/Under: 43.5 points
Season Record
Buffalo Bills: 7-3 (2nd place, AFC East)
Houston Texans: 5-5 (3rd place, AFC South)
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Recent Form
Buffalo Bills: won their last game at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44-32.
Houston Texans: won their last game on the road against the Tennessee Titans 16-13.
Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Preview and Analysis
The Bills are entering this game with a 7-3 record overall and they have a 2-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 5-1 in their home games, 2-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44-32. Josh Allen was the starting QB and he completed 19/30 passes for 317 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. James Cook led the team in rushing yards with 48. Tyrell Shavers led the receivers with 90 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Terrel Bernard led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while DaQuan Jones led the defense in sacks with 1. Cole Bishop came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Texans are entering this game with a 5-5 record overall and they have a 3-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-2 in their home games, 2-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Tennessee Titans 16-13. Davis Mills was the starting QB and he completed 26/41 passes for 274 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Jo'quavious Marks led the team in rushing yards with 44. Nico Collins led the receivers with 92 receiving yards on 9 receptions and 1 TD. Myles Bryant led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Danielle Hunter led the defense in sacks with 1.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Bills vs Texans Prediction
The current betting odds have the Bills listed as a 5.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Bills have looked really good in their games this season with their 7-3 record overall which has them right near the top of the AFC East. They took a bad loss to the Dolphins the other week, but they are off a 44-32 win over the Bucs in their last one and that big win will give them some momentum coming into this one. Meanwhile, the Texans haven't looked great in their games this season with their 5-5 record overall which has them right near the bottom of the AFC South. They have managed to win 2 games in a row now with their starting QB out, but the offense has been an issue for them all season. They have one of the best defenses in the NFL this year, but they have one of the worst offenses that struggles to put up points each week. They did find a spark on offense with Davis Mills when he led a 19 point comeback win against the Jaguars, but that offense fell flat on their face again with a 16-13 win over the Titans in their last one. They struggled against the worst team in the NFL and as bad as this Bills defense has been this season, they will be able to stop this dysfunctional Texans offense. Look for the Bills to get into a rhythm now, off a big win where they put up 44 points. The best way to place a bet here is on the Bills to cover the spread in this game.
Bills Texans Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Thursday, November 20, 2025 (8:15 pm ET start time) is Bills 20 Texans 13.
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NFL Betting Trends
Buffalo Bills: 6-11 ATS on the road after playing a game at home. 6-10 ATS on the road off a home win. 9-5 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 8-3 UNDER in games played on a grass field.
Houston Texans: 6-3 ATS as a home underdog. 10-3 ATS after playing a division game. 9-5 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 28-17 UNDER in all games. 21-5 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.
Key Injuries
Buffalo Bills: J. Poyer (S) Injured - NIR - Rest. C. Samuel (WR) Injured - Elbow. D. Jones (DL) Injured - NIR - Rest. M. Hardman (WR) Injured - Calf. C. McGovern (OG) Injured - Ankle. J. Bosa (DL) Injured - Wrist. J. Phillips (DL) Injured - Wrist. S. Thompson (LB) Injured - Hamstring. P. Mathis (DL) Injured - Shoulder. T. Johnson (CB) Injured - Groin. T. Bernard (LB) Injured - Ankle. J. Palmer (WR) Injured - Knee. K. Shakir (WR) Injured - Personal. D. Williams (LB) Injured - Groin. D. Kincaid (TE) Injured - Hamstring. C. Benford (CB) Injured - Groin.
Houston Texans: T. Brown (OT) Injured - Hand. N. Collins (WR) Injured - Ankle. M. Bryant (CB) Injured - Ankle. W. Anderson Jr. (DL) Injured - Ankle. J. Hill (LB) Injured - Hamstring. K. Fairbairn (K) Injured - Quad. D. Autry (DL) Injured - Knee. B. Berrios (WR) Injured - Quad. D. Schultz (TE) Injured - Shoulder. A. Al-Shaair (LB) Injured - Knee. J. Pitre (S) Injured - Concussion. J. Hansen (LB) Injured - Elbow. E. Ingram (OG) Injured - Knee. D. Mills (QB) Injured - Elbow. T. Howard (OT) Injured - Ankle. C. Stroud (QB) Injured - Concussion. C. Stover (TE) Injured - Foot.
Notable Quotes
“High-level competition, two great quarterbacks, two great teams.” - Sean McDermott after his team’s win against the Buccaneers in their last game.
“I’m just proud of the way we’re finishing. We weren’t finishing games really good to start the season, but how we’re finishing games now and finishing with a win, that’s all that matters. I’m proud of our guys for that.” - DeMeco Ryans after his team’s win against the Titans in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Buffalo Bills
WR Coleman, Keon
WR Palmer, Joshua
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Knox, Dawson
QB Allen, Josh
RB Cook, James
FB Gilliam, Reggie
Houston Texans
WR Collins, Nico
WR Higgins, Jayden
WR Kirk, Christian
TE Schultz, Dalton
QB Mills, Davis
RB Marks, Woody
FB Johnson, Jakob
Statistical Leaders
Buffalo Bills
Passing: Josh Allen (2,456)
Rushing: James Cook (968)
Receiving: Khalil Shakir (454)
Touchdowns: Josh Allen (10)
Houston Texans
Passing: C.J. Stroud (1,702)
Rushing: Nick Chubb (419)
Receiving: Nico Collins (642)
Touchdowns: Woody Marks (4)
Coaches:
Buffalo Bills: Sean McDermott (9th season)
Houston Texans: DeMeco Ryans (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
